mensik remind mein your analysis to someone like zverev ! you mentioned hurckacz fair enough but mensik mooves like zverev which is better than hubert imo even though its close ! forehand weakness is spot on just like zverev and hubert ! one of the reason i have doubt mensik could win a slam just like zverev cause they are much more complete guys out there ! lets see
Yep Zverev would be another similar comparison, but I think Zverev is more spinny on the forehand, and he likes to stand deeper in the court. Hurkacz hits flatter, stands closer to the baseline, is more natural coming forward, and also slides well on hardcourt, so while Hurkacz/Zverev/Medvedev are all broadly in the "big-serving counterpuncher" bucket, they have differences in position, shot speed/spin etc.
1) About Mensik’s TB record. While I agree the 70% record is probably unsustainable and such a 7 TB win streak is unlikely to reoccur, I still think he could develop into a tiebreak king. The fact his serve doesn’t go down a gear under pressure (in fact seemingly the opposite) when in general it does (thus the points getting longer and better players winning TBs) helps, but I also think on the other end of the spectrum he is great too. His serving points don’t get longer but his return ability (one I’ve admired from the start, great reflexes and absorption off both wings including the FH) allows to make his opponent’s longer. That’s a scary short point domination combo (Jeff Sackman had showcased his 1-3s earlier in the week and he places in the Top 10). Sometimes that’s all it takes, see the easy +1 miss from Djokovic at 2-0 in the first TB.
2) Speaking of Djokovic. That piece was understandably centered around Mensik, but what do you make of this week for him? To me it was very positive, and not a negative final itself, especially when you take some circumstances (stye and high humidity) into account which may have contributed to the not-so-stellar day he had and you mentioned.
He didn’t quite get dominated, he was mostly out clutched in tiebreakers. And sure, you could say Prime (or even 2023) Djokovic would have been the clutch one (even dominated the match to a point clutch doesn’t matter) by cutting down on Mensik’s free points on serve and outlasting / exposing him in those lung busting areas (big serve return and rally endurance seemingly the two areas where he has « declined » the most), but still, given Mensik’s performance (basically no drop from the entire week) and Novak’s own throughout (dominant draw albeit not so great competition) I think the pieces are still there for a #25, especially the one that is questionable (physicality and all its aspects, from reflexes to movement / defense to rally stamina).
Wimbledon seems like a better bet than the French, but even that I wouldn’t rule out as I think he’ll keep upping physical gears (eventually being better than the Djokovic who suffered against humidity) and build momentum throughout the clay season, bar another injury which would set him back to square one (or even be the end of things).
1) As Jeff explains in his piece, that tie-break record % is almost certainly going to go down; his return-points-won and serve-points-won simply don't reflect a long-term win % near that. 40-odd tiebreaks just isn't enough data yet (guys like Pablo Cuevas had a similar record after their first 43 breakers). Regarding his return ability, my take on it is this: if it was that good, he wouldn't have needed so many breakers. Didn't break Fritz, only broke Djoker off the back of some very poor misses in Djoker's first service game, and his career return-points-won % / return-games won % has him ~30th in both. If I were to be harsh of this match, I'd say that rewatching it, the Mensik return peaked in breakers, and the forehand got lucky several times (a let cord on a short forehand, a shank off the slice that landed in, some on-the-line nice deep returns). Maybe he felt like he had nothing to lose, maybe guys will start to pick apart his return tendencies as he plays more and the tour gets more data, maybe he will feel more pressure as there is a target on his own back now. Who knows, but very few guys perform outside their regular points win % in busters (guys like Kyrgios and Isner did because they tanked a lot of regular return points, but focused in breakers). I will say that the forehand is actually pretty solid at handling pace. I think it's kind of a good weakness to have for his style. He doesn't gift errors too much, just throws in slower balls, but he can redirect it well and hold a good baseline position. WIll be interesting to see how he manages that going forward, but I think the best way to play this guy is to slice it to the forehand, or slice short to him in general, and then attack the forehand (kind of what Djoker did to Medvedev in their AO final)
2) I've said since the start of the year that I think Djoker has a chance at AO and Wimbledon, where his more recent game developments (serve and aggression) offset his declines in endurance and long-point defence etc. Of course he is still a threat at the French, but if he has to play an Alcaraz or Sinner, or even Zverev, in BO5 on clay, I think that is a tough ask. Wimbledon is where I think 25 he is a much better chance
Agree on 1) but I guess what I was trying to say is that while his return numbers may not be that strong, I feel like his return itself is quite interesting, in play and even depth wise, and the problems can come later in rallies. So under pressure those in play% can matter. Also feel like this is why he has a good matchup against serve+1 heavy guys (FAA, Dimitrov, Rublev, Fritz to an extent)
That's possible, but I just haven't seen enough of mensik outside of some AO matches/last year in Doha/some Nextgen last year to see that as a pattern or feature of his game.
Really great analysis 👍 We now have Fils, Mensik, and Fonseca, and of course Jack Draper, competing for the upper echelons of the game. Not to mention all the others. This is a great time for Pro tennis.
Agreed! Feels like an early 2000s era. Old guard on the way out, multiple youngsters coming through. Much easier to nab 1000s and make deep slam runs with 3 ATG's out of the way. Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out, but so many guys are a chance to make a slam final now
Great analysis as always! On screen it’s clear mensiks forehand was the weaker shot but you really helped explain why that was the case, especially with Djokovics slice tactics.
Do you think Miami was a good signal from Djoko moving on?
I mean, he played well, despite the heat and humidity. Reached the final without losing a single set.. Is this the best beginning-of-the-year Djoko weve seen in like a couple of years?
Well, he won in Australia in 2023, so that was better :) but best sunshine double in quite a while for sure. It's a good sign in that his top level is still good enough to mix it with the best. At this stage, I think it's just having the consistency of good performances, and good fitness, rather than flashes of the old self now and then. You need to be able to bring a good level for 7 matches in a row of BO5.
I find it very interesting that Mensik is able to disguise so well and hit every type of serve from the same toss given the position of his tossing arm. It appears to be very much perpendicular to the court (i.e., arm angled towards the net) and the ball goes straight up & down. Whereas the guys I think of as greats in terms of disguise (Sampras, Fed, etc.) tossed with an arm more parallel to the baseline and the ball arced laterally along the baseline & over their body. Any other guys with the more perpendicular toss that could disguise very well come to mind?
It’s also interesting how Mensik is able to toss with that arm straight in front, then re-coil his body after the toss to where the toss arm moves to the right of his head. Feels like something Di Minaur could/should try to incorporate into his motion.
yeah guys like Sampras and Fed also had way more shoulder turn given their closed platform stances. Now so many youngsters are doing pinpoint, so they naturally don't turn quite as much with the torso. Kyrgios is similar in that he could hit every spot with the exact same 12 oclock toss:
Love your analysis as always. I have a question regarding your statement at the end of the analysis regarding how sinner is an exception who is able to get on his front foot even though his forehand mechanics are more side-on and the stroke preparation is low. This has kind of been sitting in the back of my mind ever since I started reading your material and looking at your technique comparisons. My question is, despite his forehand bucking the general mechanical trends that are indicative of having a great forehand what allows his forehand to be so powerful and consistent at the same time? Is there some sort of technical or physical aspect outside of the general stroke preparation that allows him to have this higher consistency? Is it something as simple as being able to generate higher racket head speed? Or perhaps something more subtle such as his incredible flexiblility? One thing I always notice watching him is that his torso is always at the "right" height when contacting balls which has always been impressive considering his height and lankiness (skiing backround I assume). Obviously from a mental standpoint, its well established that good mentality and confidence can make up for many technical differences so I'm just wanting to understand what he might be doing different mechanically that allows for this.
That's a great question Josiah, and one I have been working through in Death of a Forehand - Part IV (been taking me ages and I've been busy writing more current pieces!), but in short, Sinner has a lower to the side takeback, but he keeps it cocked to the side until very late, and still keeps the racquet head slightly above the hand, so his flip is still quite violent, creating a good stretch. My initial thesis was that more racquet movement from outside to inside was bad, but now I think it's more about the fact that a side-pointing/lower racquet head can often create a weak stretch (i.e., not enough speed). More to come. But you can see here how Sinner keeps the racquet head to the outside and slight above the hand;
mensik lowers the racquet head below the hand, also starts to 'unflip' the racquet while doing this as well, so there's only a very little flip that actually occurs when he starts to uncoil = weak stretch.
Also, Sinner has a huge follow through; really high and long. I think this is partly due to having great racquet face control (again, more to come).
Is it as simple as getting the hitting arm shoulder into deep IR before unloading? And traditionally that's been done with the high setup, but Sinner is able to make it work with the outside setup? He shows the strings to the back wall so well.
Great question. I've been thinking about it too. My guess: Jannik stays lower than the avg player (watch how bent his knees are) and he lifts his hips for spin more. But I'm no expert and I'd love to hear Hugh's thoughts!
Great points as always. I agree with Mensik being a more talented Hurkacz. That was my read as well - I think Hurkacz is also a little underrated for his open stance backhand - it's arguably the best among his generation. Mensik might be even better at that.
Re; Federer eating up short forehands - if only he did it at 8-7 40-30...
Hubi's backhand is really good. And yes, that Fed forehand was a little tentative! There's a pretty cool overlay of him hitting it almost exactly the same as the match point in 2012 v Murray. Murray misses by a few inches, Novak makes it by a few inches.
Do you have any thoughts as to why Federer seemed to always go body on those short forehand approaches? Anecdotally seemed to notice that more in his late career renaissance but I never understood why you'd go body there instead of making guys hit a shot on the run
I've watched tennis my whole life but am just getting into the game on a more granular level in the last couple years so am very much a schmuck who doesn't know much but that's just something that never made sense to me
Better way to say it is he'd hit the ball at his opponents feet or into their body to make them hit a difficult pass and he'd try to finish there rather than hit the ball away from them
Another excellent analysis. Great illustration on the Mensik-Fonseca forehand comparison. If I had to guess, I’d say Djokovic would’ve been most surprised by Mensik’s movement.
It's funny because you're ofc right about his FH, but when I was in Doha watching him go to the final, it's still the easy power (and sometimes crazy bold choices he's using it for) of that wing that impressed me the most. If he can somehow steady that ship, he's going to be a gigantic pain to play for anyone...
mensik remind mein your analysis to someone like zverev ! you mentioned hurckacz fair enough but mensik mooves like zverev which is better than hubert imo even though its close ! forehand weakness is spot on just like zverev and hubert ! one of the reason i have doubt mensik could win a slam just like zverev cause they are much more complete guys out there ! lets see
Yep Zverev would be another similar comparison, but I think Zverev is more spinny on the forehand, and he likes to stand deeper in the court. Hurkacz hits flatter, stands closer to the baseline, is more natural coming forward, and also slides well on hardcourt, so while Hurkacz/Zverev/Medvedev are all broadly in the "big-serving counterpuncher" bucket, they have differences in position, shot speed/spin etc.
The high/vertical backhand set up reminded me of Zverev as well
Yes very similar in setup
Always great to see classic/modern backhands from young players
Hi Hugh,
A great analysis, as always. Two comments
1) About Mensik’s TB record. While I agree the 70% record is probably unsustainable and such a 7 TB win streak is unlikely to reoccur, I still think he could develop into a tiebreak king. The fact his serve doesn’t go down a gear under pressure (in fact seemingly the opposite) when in general it does (thus the points getting longer and better players winning TBs) helps, but I also think on the other end of the spectrum he is great too. His serving points don’t get longer but his return ability (one I’ve admired from the start, great reflexes and absorption off both wings including the FH) allows to make his opponent’s longer. That’s a scary short point domination combo (Jeff Sackman had showcased his 1-3s earlier in the week and he places in the Top 10). Sometimes that’s all it takes, see the easy +1 miss from Djokovic at 2-0 in the first TB.
2) Speaking of Djokovic. That piece was understandably centered around Mensik, but what do you make of this week for him? To me it was very positive, and not a negative final itself, especially when you take some circumstances (stye and high humidity) into account which may have contributed to the not-so-stellar day he had and you mentioned.
He didn’t quite get dominated, he was mostly out clutched in tiebreakers. And sure, you could say Prime (or even 2023) Djokovic would have been the clutch one (even dominated the match to a point clutch doesn’t matter) by cutting down on Mensik’s free points on serve and outlasting / exposing him in those lung busting areas (big serve return and rally endurance seemingly the two areas where he has « declined » the most), but still, given Mensik’s performance (basically no drop from the entire week) and Novak’s own throughout (dominant draw albeit not so great competition) I think the pieces are still there for a #25, especially the one that is questionable (physicality and all its aspects, from reflexes to movement / defense to rally stamina).
Wimbledon seems like a better bet than the French, but even that I wouldn’t rule out as I think he’ll keep upping physical gears (eventually being better than the Djokovic who suffered against humidity) and build momentum throughout the clay season, bar another injury which would set him back to square one (or even be the end of things).
1) As Jeff explains in his piece, that tie-break record % is almost certainly going to go down; his return-points-won and serve-points-won simply don't reflect a long-term win % near that. 40-odd tiebreaks just isn't enough data yet (guys like Pablo Cuevas had a similar record after their first 43 breakers). Regarding his return ability, my take on it is this: if it was that good, he wouldn't have needed so many breakers. Didn't break Fritz, only broke Djoker off the back of some very poor misses in Djoker's first service game, and his career return-points-won % / return-games won % has him ~30th in both. If I were to be harsh of this match, I'd say that rewatching it, the Mensik return peaked in breakers, and the forehand got lucky several times (a let cord on a short forehand, a shank off the slice that landed in, some on-the-line nice deep returns). Maybe he felt like he had nothing to lose, maybe guys will start to pick apart his return tendencies as he plays more and the tour gets more data, maybe he will feel more pressure as there is a target on his own back now. Who knows, but very few guys perform outside their regular points win % in busters (guys like Kyrgios and Isner did because they tanked a lot of regular return points, but focused in breakers). I will say that the forehand is actually pretty solid at handling pace. I think it's kind of a good weakness to have for his style. He doesn't gift errors too much, just throws in slower balls, but he can redirect it well and hold a good baseline position. WIll be interesting to see how he manages that going forward, but I think the best way to play this guy is to slice it to the forehand, or slice short to him in general, and then attack the forehand (kind of what Djoker did to Medvedev in their AO final)
2) I've said since the start of the year that I think Djoker has a chance at AO and Wimbledon, where his more recent game developments (serve and aggression) offset his declines in endurance and long-point defence etc. Of course he is still a threat at the French, but if he has to play an Alcaraz or Sinner, or even Zverev, in BO5 on clay, I think that is a tough ask. Wimbledon is where I think 25 he is a much better chance
Agree on 1) but I guess what I was trying to say is that while his return numbers may not be that strong, I feel like his return itself is quite interesting, in play and even depth wise, and the problems can come later in rallies. So under pressure those in play% can matter. Also feel like this is why he has a good matchup against serve+1 heavy guys (FAA, Dimitrov, Rublev, Fritz to an extent)
That's possible, but I just haven't seen enough of mensik outside of some AO matches/last year in Doha/some Nextgen last year to see that as a pattern or feature of his game.
'too old for this shit' lmao
Really great analysis 👍 We now have Fils, Mensik, and Fonseca, and of course Jack Draper, competing for the upper echelons of the game. Not to mention all the others. This is a great time for Pro tennis.
Agreed! Feels like an early 2000s era. Old guard on the way out, multiple youngsters coming through. Much easier to nab 1000s and make deep slam runs with 3 ATG's out of the way. Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out, but so many guys are a chance to make a slam final now
Great analysis as always! On screen it’s clear mensiks forehand was the weaker shot but you really helped explain why that was the case, especially with Djokovics slice tactics.
Re: Djokovic's slips and falls. Was it due to his shoes or fitness?
I think it was just some residual moisture more than anything.
Do you think Miami was a good signal from Djoko moving on?
I mean, he played well, despite the heat and humidity. Reached the final without losing a single set.. Is this the best beginning-of-the-year Djoko weve seen in like a couple of years?
Well, he won in Australia in 2023, so that was better :) but best sunshine double in quite a while for sure. It's a good sign in that his top level is still good enough to mix it with the best. At this stage, I think it's just having the consistency of good performances, and good fitness, rather than flashes of the old self now and then. You need to be able to bring a good level for 7 matches in a row of BO5.
I find it very interesting that Mensik is able to disguise so well and hit every type of serve from the same toss given the position of his tossing arm. It appears to be very much perpendicular to the court (i.e., arm angled towards the net) and the ball goes straight up & down. Whereas the guys I think of as greats in terms of disguise (Sampras, Fed, etc.) tossed with an arm more parallel to the baseline and the ball arced laterally along the baseline & over their body. Any other guys with the more perpendicular toss that could disguise very well come to mind?
It’s also interesting how Mensik is able to toss with that arm straight in front, then re-coil his body after the toss to where the toss arm moves to the right of his head. Feels like something Di Minaur could/should try to incorporate into his motion.
yeah guys like Sampras and Fed also had way more shoulder turn given their closed platform stances. Now so many youngsters are doing pinpoint, so they naturally don't turn quite as much with the torso. Kyrgios is similar in that he could hit every spot with the exact same 12 oclock toss:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWvJia7qFWM
Although his toss arm did follow the baseline, his actualy body turn wasn't very extreme.
Hitting corners is really just a very slight adjustment of the racquet face, mostly about how much you pronate the forearm.
Man that Kyrgios arm action is so crazy. Talk about cracking a whip!
Are he / Mensik still hitting the different spins (not just spots) with that same toss as well?
We don’t get spin data on serves though
Yeah I think so
Hi Hugh,
Love your analysis as always. I have a question regarding your statement at the end of the analysis regarding how sinner is an exception who is able to get on his front foot even though his forehand mechanics are more side-on and the stroke preparation is low. This has kind of been sitting in the back of my mind ever since I started reading your material and looking at your technique comparisons. My question is, despite his forehand bucking the general mechanical trends that are indicative of having a great forehand what allows his forehand to be so powerful and consistent at the same time? Is there some sort of technical or physical aspect outside of the general stroke preparation that allows him to have this higher consistency? Is it something as simple as being able to generate higher racket head speed? Or perhaps something more subtle such as his incredible flexiblility? One thing I always notice watching him is that his torso is always at the "right" height when contacting balls which has always been impressive considering his height and lankiness (skiing backround I assume). Obviously from a mental standpoint, its well established that good mentality and confidence can make up for many technical differences so I'm just wanting to understand what he might be doing different mechanically that allows for this.
That's a great question Josiah, and one I have been working through in Death of a Forehand - Part IV (been taking me ages and I've been busy writing more current pieces!), but in short, Sinner has a lower to the side takeback, but he keeps it cocked to the side until very late, and still keeps the racquet head slightly above the hand, so his flip is still quite violent, creating a good stretch. My initial thesis was that more racquet movement from outside to inside was bad, but now I think it's more about the fact that a side-pointing/lower racquet head can often create a weak stretch (i.e., not enough speed). More to come. But you can see here how Sinner keeps the racquet head to the outside and slight above the hand;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfpLdYpK99Q
mensik lowers the racquet head below the hand, also starts to 'unflip' the racquet while doing this as well, so there's only a very little flip that actually occurs when he starts to uncoil = weak stretch.
Also, Sinner has a huge follow through; really high and long. I think this is partly due to having great racquet face control (again, more to come).
Hope that makes sense.
Is it as simple as getting the hitting arm shoulder into deep IR before unloading? And traditionally that's been done with the high setup, but Sinner is able to make it work with the outside setup? He shows the strings to the back wall so well.
That's definitely been a trend with guys as they move to lighter frames.
Great question. I've been thinking about it too. My guess: Jannik stays lower than the avg player (watch how bent his knees are) and he lifts his hips for spin more. But I'm no expert and I'd love to hear Hugh's thoughts!
Great points as always. I agree with Mensik being a more talented Hurkacz. That was my read as well - I think Hurkacz is also a little underrated for his open stance backhand - it's arguably the best among his generation. Mensik might be even better at that.
Re; Federer eating up short forehands - if only he did it at 8-7 40-30...
Hubi's backhand is really good. And yes, that Fed forehand was a little tentative! There's a pretty cool overlay of him hitting it almost exactly the same as the match point in 2012 v Murray. Murray misses by a few inches, Novak makes it by a few inches.
Do you have that link handy by chance? Couldn't find it in a quick YT search
I think it was actually an Instagram post from Joel myers
For everybody to enjoy:
https://www.reddit.com/r/tennis/comments/14ql6p3/two_wimbledon_match_points_two_different_results/
Do you have any thoughts as to why Federer seemed to always go body on those short forehand approaches? Anecdotally seemed to notice that more in his late career renaissance but I never understood why you'd go body there instead of making guys hit a shot on the run
What do you mean the body?
I've watched tennis my whole life but am just getting into the game on a more granular level in the last couple years so am very much a schmuck who doesn't know much but that's just something that never made sense to me
Better way to say it is he'd hit the ball at his opponents feet or into their body to make them hit a difficult pass and he'd try to finish there rather than hit the ball away from them
Another excellent analysis. Great illustration on the Mensik-Fonseca forehand comparison. If I had to guess, I’d say Djokovic would’ve been most surprised by Mensik’s movement.
It's funny because you're ofc right about his FH, but when I was in Doha watching him go to the final, it's still the easy power (and sometimes crazy bold choices he's using it for) of that wing that impressed me the most. If he can somehow steady that ship, he's going to be a gigantic pain to play for anyone...
Super technical insights on the Mensik forehand. I think Learner Tien does this same sub optimal pre-flip on his forehand also.