In the context of this match, I see the criticism of Carlos flying too close to the sun. Personally, I hate when he rushes the second serve with a SABR. He's too powerful to do that and can rarely control that shot.
But the bigger issue with Carlos, at least in Cinci and Toronto, is the first serve. The % was terrible and until yesterday entirely too predictable. Flat bomb followed by kick. Tommy Paul and Hurkacz were all over this. Ben Shelton, too, who pushed Alcaraz in his only straight set victory of the past two weeks.
Here are the low point % moments for Carlos' first serve over the past two weeks:
Like the rest of his ground game, I think he's still learning when to bring the heat and when to add the variation/safety etc. The start of the match was perfect; excellent execution of the wide serves and a good mix of kick first-serves on the AD side. I wonder if the shade and coolness reduced his effectiveness on the kick on the AD a bit. Either way he seemed to lose that great serving as the match wore on.
I need to rewatch the first set. But yeah, the comparison to Madrid makes a lot of sense. Also, it had been quite cool all week, which may have contributed to his serving issues.
Still, I'd like to see Carlos transition to a different serve, technically. It's a very stiff motion, like he's throwing a shot put...feels less like a kinetic chain reaction and more like he's slugging a heavy bag.
Curious if he needs a middle-paced cut/slice serve, just to add variety and throw opponents off from his two dominant serves. Something that comes in around 118mph and stays low. Felix (FAA) does this quite naturally.
I very much agree with this but interestingly yesterday it seemed to be the return that really limited him. He let Djokovic win almost 2/3 of his second serve points even though Djokovic was so physically limited for a long stretch. Especially in the second set he really let Djokovic off the hook I think. Whereas at Wimbledon his return was off the charts against nothing but monster servers on a tougher surface
Djokovic made his money the other day against Alcaraz' second serve. Carlos didn't do the same...his returning was less impressive than it was at Wimbledon.
Still doesn't negate the fact that Djokovic left a lot of free points (again - having had a relatively poor serve day also at Wimbledon where in prior rounds there he was strong) on the table compared to what he usually is able to do on his First Serve %
As for the Alcaraz second serve I think what is happening there that is Djokovic adapting to Alcaraz's kick serve better - even on a surface like Cinci where the bounce was really high which should help the kick serve even more. We have seen this before from Djokovic - adapts to the opponent over the first 4 or 5 matches.
Although Djokovic's second serve return points won was only marginally up to 52% from 50% from the Wimbledon match (source flash score). But he did seem to subjectively have less trouble with the Alcaraz kick serve in terms of not handing Alcaraz as many soft returns off it vs Wimbledon.
It was close again and the actual key part of the match was this time some errors from Alcaraz in that game in the 2nd set where he let Djokovic break back. Without that it's an Alcaraz victory. Likewise in Wimbledon the key point was the uncharacteristic unforced Djokovic backhand errors in the 2nd-set tie-break on set point and the point directly after.
Hugh your point about shot selection still well holds, but I think that two-handed forehand came right before the worst of his hand cramps as right after that he had trouble even holding the racket in his right hand while awaiting the Djokovic serve.
In addition to the super loose game that led to the break in the second set I thought he made a mistake not going harder for the insurance break. Once he had the first break he seemed content to let Djokovic slide through his service games while waiting to finish him off on his own serve.
All that aside what an incredible match and what incredible shot making and heart from both guys the last 45 minutes or so. Transcendent viewing. Please tennis gods give us another in the USO final 🙏
Yes perhaps that was the hand cramp effect. But still, try a drop shot even. Surely he could have hit a drop shot even with a cramping hand? Of course, I write this from the comfort of my chair, so what do I know.
Regarding the insurance break, I agree. I think this will be a lesson learned in benig wary of player's who appear wounded; Djokovic is known for foxing like this and while I believe he absolutely was in distress yesterday, he does a good job of playing the part that little bit more even as he starts to come good. Just another facet where he is so good; he can manage "the game within the game"—those between point moments, body language, etc.— so well.
Agree that the last 45 was transcendent viewing. Something special.
I don't think there's another sport in the world that allows this, individual or team sports. Heat issues are an element of conditioning and training. It's not about getting taped or stretched.
Disagree here. It's about player health. If factory workers don't work under extreme conditions, a MTO is the least they can do. If a full body cramp can be treated by a team, a heat stroke should be treated by a team too.
Respect the thought, but it's apples to oranges. If you apply the logic that the heat is a labor condition then the match should either be stopped or venues must provide roofs with air conditioning. That's the more valid comparison to a factory floor or, say, a UPS truck.
Currently, tennis players are not allowed MTO for cramping. It's an issue of fitness. I see heat-related illness in the same way. But it's not. According to the rules, a player is allowed one MTO for heat-related illness. Seems weird. They don't get this in boxing or MMA or golf or track-and-field or marathons or olympic swimming or ironman races or rowing or...you get the point.
boxing and MMA would rarely get to 40 plus degrees, no? On court these temps will be mid-40s or more. And they are out there for an indeterminate period of time, in yesterday's example nearly 4 hours.
Marathons, track and field, golf etc. have a large field competing at the same time; if one person pulls out the spectacle continues. In tennis, if you lose one player you've lost your product if you decide that is the rule yesterday. Millions in lost revenue and how many fans did the game win yesterday? Entertainment business at the end of the day.
Now does the rule get abused ? Absolutely. But it's a tradeoff that is better for the game overall.
As you mentioned, among Carlos’s small cracks that backhand was quite loose during cross court exchanges, but I thought his wide forehand was once again pretty quiet. Taking that 3/3 40-all point in the third for example, before unloading too agressively, he manages to put back two great wide forehands with great depth, two forehands I don’t believe he puts back back in Madrid 22, let’s say. Have you been able to spot if the changes in footwork he made back in Wimbledon given it’s harder to make on hard courts ?
I don't think he used that footwork as much because this court is just so much livelier; harder to hit the step-over forehand as it gets above your waist and makes more sense to play open.
There were moments where I felt he straddled the balance between aggression and consistency well, but I just feel he errs on the side of aggression a little too much when it's clear his opponent is feeling the pressure.
I also think that his backhand will never be a rock in big moments like an ND/Murray backhand given he has that outside whipped setup. It's more suited for taking it early and playing hard, which is what he tried to do on a couple of those misses in the net on big points (set point in the second for example).
Agreed. I thought he was relatively reserved with the forehand. Granted, he went for it a few times but I saw more safe regulation forehands, even loopy ones, than rockets.
Keeping that outside leg lunge to get the upper body quiet (which is what I believe it’s called) is gonna be key to making that wide forehand a consistent force. He could also shorten the takeback (no more inverted start) but maybe he prefers that footwork change because he has such a great lag / control combo hitting it like this
He can also crack it, so it's tempting to select that shot. I also thought his bh down the line was quite impressive today. I'd like to see more of that -- less winning shots from the stretch and more controlled changes of direction.
Hi, could you kindly elaborate more on what is a Ferris Wheel vs. Merry-go-round forehand take back?
Hi K Lee,
check out this piece for a bit more of a visual breakdown!
https://hughclarke.substack.com/p/medvedev-x-sinner-miami-final-analysis
Also this:
https://hughclarke.substack.com/p/part-1-forehand-technique-and-swingweight
Checked out the first link you shared and now I get it! Thanks!!!
Thanks for the quick reply! I did read the piece on Forehand but you hadn't used those specific terms in that article :)
In the context of this match, I see the criticism of Carlos flying too close to the sun. Personally, I hate when he rushes the second serve with a SABR. He's too powerful to do that and can rarely control that shot.
But the bigger issue with Carlos, at least in Cinci and Toronto, is the first serve. The % was terrible and until yesterday entirely too predictable. Flat bomb followed by kick. Tommy Paul and Hurkacz were all over this. Ben Shelton, too, who pushed Alcaraz in his only straight set victory of the past two weeks.
Here are the low point % moments for Carlos' first serve over the past two weeks:
Ben Shelton - 58% (Toronto)
Hurkacz - 59% (Toronto)
Jordan Thompson - 55%
Purcell - 55%
Hurkacz 1st set - 42%
Like the rest of his ground game, I think he's still learning when to bring the heat and when to add the variation/safety etc. The start of the match was perfect; excellent execution of the wide serves and a good mix of kick first-serves on the AD side. I wonder if the shade and coolness reduced his effectiveness on the kick on the AD a bit. Either way he seemed to lose that great serving as the match wore on.
I need to rewatch the first set. But yeah, the comparison to Madrid makes a lot of sense. Also, it had been quite cool all week, which may have contributed to his serving issues.
Still, I'd like to see Carlos transition to a different serve, technically. It's a very stiff motion, like he's throwing a shot put...feels less like a kinetic chain reaction and more like he's slugging a heavy bag.
Curious if he needs a middle-paced cut/slice serve, just to add variety and throw opponents off from his two dominant serves. Something that comes in around 118mph and stays low. Felix (FAA) does this quite naturally.
I very much agree with this but interestingly yesterday it seemed to be the return that really limited him. He let Djokovic win almost 2/3 of his second serve points even though Djokovic was so physically limited for a long stretch. Especially in the second set he really let Djokovic off the hook I think. Whereas at Wimbledon his return was off the charts against nothing but monster servers on a tougher surface
Yeah, Carlos was better on serve yesterday, for sure. Djokovic is a totally different kind of opponent from those I listed.
But playing 6 straight 3-set matches must have had an effect on Carlos.
Djokovic only managed 57% First Serve % yesterday.
He serving was not great in the Wimbledon final either.
Gives him scope for more free points in their next meeting.
More so than Alcaraz. whose serve was decent in their last couple of meetings.
Djokovic made his money the other day against Alcaraz' second serve. Carlos didn't do the same...his returning was less impressive than it was at Wimbledon.
Still doesn't negate the fact that Djokovic left a lot of free points (again - having had a relatively poor serve day also at Wimbledon where in prior rounds there he was strong) on the table compared to what he usually is able to do on his First Serve %
As for the Alcaraz second serve I think what is happening there that is Djokovic adapting to Alcaraz's kick serve better - even on a surface like Cinci where the bounce was really high which should help the kick serve even more. We have seen this before from Djokovic - adapts to the opponent over the first 4 or 5 matches.
Although Djokovic's second serve return points won was only marginally up to 52% from 50% from the Wimbledon match (source flash score). But he did seem to subjectively have less trouble with the Alcaraz kick serve in terms of not handing Alcaraz as many soft returns off it vs Wimbledon.
It was close again and the actual key part of the match was this time some errors from Alcaraz in that game in the 2nd set where he let Djokovic break back. Without that it's an Alcaraz victory. Likewise in Wimbledon the key point was the uncharacteristic unforced Djokovic backhand errors in the 2nd-set tie-break on set point and the point directly after.
Yesterday I heard a lot of JCF serve suggestions (particularly on the third set), I wonder if someone has broken down serve patterns by court side.
Maybe I'm alone in this, but I kind of find that troubling.
Hugh your point about shot selection still well holds, but I think that two-handed forehand came right before the worst of his hand cramps as right after that he had trouble even holding the racket in his right hand while awaiting the Djokovic serve.
In addition to the super loose game that led to the break in the second set I thought he made a mistake not going harder for the insurance break. Once he had the first break he seemed content to let Djokovic slide through his service games while waiting to finish him off on his own serve.
All that aside what an incredible match and what incredible shot making and heart from both guys the last 45 minutes or so. Transcendent viewing. Please tennis gods give us another in the USO final 🙏
Yes perhaps that was the hand cramp effect. But still, try a drop shot even. Surely he could have hit a drop shot even with a cramping hand? Of course, I write this from the comfort of my chair, so what do I know.
Regarding the insurance break, I agree. I think this will be a lesson learned in benig wary of player's who appear wounded; Djokovic is known for foxing like this and while I believe he absolutely was in distress yesterday, he does a good job of playing the part that little bit more even as he starts to come good. Just another facet where he is so good; he can manage "the game within the game"—those between point moments, body language, etc.— so well.
Agree that the last 45 was transcendent viewing. Something special.
Sidenote: I don't think players should allowed MTO for heat stroke.
I see both sides. If they didn't allow that we don't get that match, which would have been a shame.
But there's also the point where you want to reward guys who are well conditioned.
mid-30s yesterday meant well north of 40 degrees on a packed stadium court with all those warm bodies. I have no issue with how it was handled.
I don't think there's another sport in the world that allows this, individual or team sports. Heat issues are an element of conditioning and training. It's not about getting taped or stretched.
Disagree here. It's about player health. If factory workers don't work under extreme conditions, a MTO is the least they can do. If a full body cramp can be treated by a team, a heat stroke should be treated by a team too.
Respect the thought, but it's apples to oranges. If you apply the logic that the heat is a labor condition then the match should either be stopped or venues must provide roofs with air conditioning. That's the more valid comparison to a factory floor or, say, a UPS truck.
Currently, tennis players are not allowed MTO for cramping. It's an issue of fitness. I see heat-related illness in the same way. But it's not. According to the rules, a player is allowed one MTO for heat-related illness. Seems weird. They don't get this in boxing or MMA or golf or track-and-field or marathons or olympic swimming or ironman races or rowing or...you get the point.
boxing and MMA would rarely get to 40 plus degrees, no? On court these temps will be mid-40s or more. And they are out there for an indeterminate period of time, in yesterday's example nearly 4 hours.
Marathons, track and field, golf etc. have a large field competing at the same time; if one person pulls out the spectacle continues. In tennis, if you lose one player you've lost your product if you decide that is the rule yesterday. Millions in lost revenue and how many fans did the game win yesterday? Entertainment business at the end of the day.
Now does the rule get abused ? Absolutely. But it's a tradeoff that is better for the game overall.
Wonderful analysis as always,
As you mentioned, among Carlos’s small cracks that backhand was quite loose during cross court exchanges, but I thought his wide forehand was once again pretty quiet. Taking that 3/3 40-all point in the third for example, before unloading too agressively, he manages to put back two great wide forehands with great depth, two forehands I don’t believe he puts back back in Madrid 22, let’s say. Have you been able to spot if the changes in footwork he made back in Wimbledon given it’s harder to make on hard courts ?
I don't think he used that footwork as much because this court is just so much livelier; harder to hit the step-over forehand as it gets above your waist and makes more sense to play open.
There were moments where I felt he straddled the balance between aggression and consistency well, but I just feel he errs on the side of aggression a little too much when it's clear his opponent is feeling the pressure.
I also think that his backhand will never be a rock in big moments like an ND/Murray backhand given he has that outside whipped setup. It's more suited for taking it early and playing hard, which is what he tried to do on a couple of those misses in the net on big points (set point in the second for example).
Agreed. I thought he was relatively reserved with the forehand. Granted, he went for it a few times but I saw more safe regulation forehands, even loopy ones, than rockets.
Keeping that outside leg lunge to get the upper body quiet (which is what I believe it’s called) is gonna be key to making that wide forehand a consistent force. He could also shorten the takeback (no more inverted start) but maybe he prefers that footwork change because he has such a great lag / control combo hitting it like this
He can also crack it, so it's tempting to select that shot. I also thought his bh down the line was quite impressive today. I'd like to see more of that -- less winning shots from the stretch and more controlled changes of direction.