24 Comments

Great write up Hugh. Certainly the smallest of margins, but as you say, Dimitrov was at his best, giving away nothing. He has to me the best slice backhand on Tour(now that Fed has retired), but his backspin topspin backhand is his key to me. As good as his slice bh is, it has to be used judiciously. His backhand was completely on yesterday, as quantified by the Shot Quality number. Grigor is only the 14th favorite to win the AO per the oddsmakers, but it would be great to see him make a deep run. Hard to believe watching him he has not won a title since 2017. Just a beautiful game, so easy on the eye. And I do think the scar tissue of playing and losing to the big 3 so many times is a big issue for him when he plays them, like his last loss to Novak you referenced. Same for Gasquet, and so many great players. Those 3 just took all of the air out of the room.

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Him and Evans. I give Evans the edge by a hair but they both have phenomenal slices. And yeah, getting smacked up in your early 20s by the three GOATs certainly would put a dent in your confidence!

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Evans uses his slice way more mostly bc his drive bh is a lot weaker.

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I have heard that discussion a lot, Grigor or Evans who has the best slice? They are very close, I guess I just like the Grigor aesthetics. And they both use the thinner beam more classic racquets. That seems to be a common theme of great backhand slices.

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Under appreciated I think is how fluid and effective Dimi was in switching from slice bh to drive bh. Even in the quickest of points, he was under control.

On match point, he hit 9-10 backhands and was in total control.

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Not to me ha.

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Seemed that all tournament Holger made the choice to be hyper aggressive, that this is the way he's going to play on hardcourt. He was a bit erratic in that, but still way more committed to a pov of play than before. He just needs to clean up the footwork and be more consistent in shot selection.

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Yeah this match was the only one I watched start-to-finish of Holger and it was pure aggression the whole time. I think Dimitrov's aggression was a factor in that; Rune couldn't afford to play passive otherwise Grigor was ripping it from both sides and attacking. Conditions looked quick.

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Adelaide was very fast all week. AO will be much slower. Probably less humid, too, I think. You could see Holger not quite comfortable with playing so aggressive. Comfortable with the choice, but at times flailing physically. He didn't quite have his body under control. Kind of like a really fast, physical point guard who goes to the rim at full speed but still lacks the control to slow the body down at the right moment. He will get there.

Curious if this hyper aggression is more a reflection of Becker or Luthi?

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I wonder if you agree with me on this matter but i find holger forehand not very efficient when he is rush or when he had to accelerate some low balls from great slices of dimitrov. Alcaraz also struggle when rush on the forehand however on low slices i find his forehand much more effective and aggressive.

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I do agree Romain. He missed a few low slice forehands and when rushed as you said. Partly shot selection, but partly also footwork I think.

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Rune has a robust "linear" forehand that works consistently, but it's a bit power-hungry in the sense that it loses a lot of speed / control if you're not pushing with the body - as you do in the reverse pivot and some situations where you see Rune hitting a nothingball with the forehand. Players such as Alcaraz or Nadal can still power through with explosive power and a rolling upwards stroke full of topspin; otherwise, you need either a wristy coiled shot (which lacks control on the run, but not power) or a more dynamic slap to get the extra punch needed to drive the ball (e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rV3HC2o71k not a perfect comparison with a standard reverse pivot, but one that was easy to google)

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Great post! I’m a believer that the sky’s the limit for Holger and much of that has to do with how well he can handle his forehand going forward. I’ve liked how it’s looked in Brisbane, so let’s see what he does with it the rest of the year.

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I will try out the Rune backhand once I'm done with physical therapy (I hurt my right shoulder a couple of weeks ago while trying to switch from a 2 hander to a 1 hander on 3 occasions because I was using the wrong technique).

I have tried to emulate the Djokovic backhand in the past, but the transition from the racket being up vertically to moving down past my legs and then hitting the ball always felt awkward. I couldn't make it work. Rune's backhand has that left-to-right-to-left motion, which feels more comfortable to me when I shadow swing. I will have to try it out on a court once I'm done with PT at the end of March.

So thank you for showing Rune's backhand. It might be the cure for my 2 hander, which has been inconsistent the last 20 years (I usually take it back only about 135 degrees, with the racket pointing towards 10 o'clock, so I don't get much power or topspin on it). I'm a little afraid of trying the 1 hander again, but I do know the proper technique now, and I have a topspin pro, so I think I'll try out some swings with it at some point and see how my shoulder feels.

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Dimitrov was great last year but had pretty terrible luck with his draws - check his record here, mostly only lost to players ranked above him.

https://www.atptour.com/en/players/grigor-dimitrov/d875/player-activity?year=2023

Can't remember the platform but remember hearing he has been super determined and focused with new coach since start of 2023, hope he gets some more results to show for it.

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Yeah he hasn't had a bad loss in a long time now. Been playing very consistent, top-10 tennis

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Delgado making an impact. Also, I think Dimi's record against players ranked lower than him has been really great lately. Quick look at his record in '23, he lost 4 matches to lower ranked players:

Bublik

Lehecka

Jarry

Evans

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Im happy that Rune finally finded his game style. He was a guy that didn't know what to do sometimes, defense, agressive, solid... Boris is the reason for that. I like a lot that style for Holger, mainly because he show that he cant grind for 3 games in a row, always injured, tired, a lot of cramps too. I love him on the net, and appear that his RPM on the FH side is quite bigger than the last season. Like Boris said: "A diamond to be polished." Cheers HC! Thank you for the analysis!

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great analysis ! It was a high quality final from both ! dimitrov played federer like ! looking forward the australian open

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Amazing analysis! I was also shocked to see dimitrov returning every one of rune’s hyper aggressive backhand returns with precision. I’m really liking how they’re both playing and we’ll see how AO unfolds!

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Great analysis and comments! Dimitrov’s play makes the sting of Feds retirement less severe. Two minor observations. When Grigor sliced and then hit topspin bh to bh, Rune missed. The slice is like a setup shot aside from being a great neutralizer. Second, the noisy forehead you’ve pointed out especially on the run is a big issue under pressure. Grigor handles this SO much better. Rune hit several into the stands. Do you think that the Y2K forehand is the most balanced of them all?

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I wonder if the more eastern grip of Dimi/Fed makes the running fh a little easier to pull off...snapping back with a more flat shot is certainly easier.

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Eastern definitely beneficial on the run.

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I think so! I saw a player at my local courts pull that off recently. He uses something like a continental. I also saw Rune mangle short forehands much more than Dimitrov. There is just no way to adapt the swing like the more classical swings can. I wonder if academies might adjust accordingly. The modern forehand works until it doesn't. And then we end up back at Y2K.

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