Clay Season Preview
Young guns only
As the Sunshine Double comes to a close the European clay-court swing wastes no time in getting underway, with ATP250s in Houston and Marrakech beginning this week. Along with a smattering of ATP250s, there are four big clay tournaments leading up to Roland Garros:
ATP1000 - Monte Carlo Rolex Masters. April 10th - 17th.
ATP500 - Barcelona Open. April 18th - 24th.
ATP1000 - Madrid Open. May 1st - 8th.
ATP1000 - Rome Masters. May 8th - 15th.
Roland Garros. May 22nd - June 5th.
The story of the season so far has been all about two Spaniards at opposite ends of their careers. Rafael Nadal is fighting off the twilight pretty well, opening his 2022 account with a record-breaking 21st Grand Slam and a 20-1 record. Carlos Alcaraz (17-2) is also breaking records at a decent clip. His latest:
As the tour switches to clay, the demands of the game shift; the balls kick higher; the players slide. The game hurts. An old coach of mine used to say “the legs feed the wolf,” and it is never more true than on clay. Drop shots, angles, and heavy topspin feature prominently in an effort to win extended points. I’ve picked five young players from the top-10, and eight from the rest of the top-100 who I think will do damage this clay season.
#3 - Alexander Zverev (14-6) Age: 24
The big German has gone a respectable 14-6 in 2022, but it’s been a rocky start to the year: a default in Acapulco, an ongoing domestic-violence investigation, and no title. When he’s playing well he can look unstoppable, but he has rarely brought his best where it counts most: slams. Despite all his ongoing headwinds it is hard not to include him on this list; he’s a tough player to beat and if he gets a few wins he can run deep. He made the semi-finals at Roland Garros last year, losing to Tsitsipas in five sets. He won Madrid. He’s beaten Rafa on clay. Can he win Roland Garros? He’s never had a top-10 win in grand slams, which is astounding. It’s hard to write him off with his resume—he can hang with the best of them—but he would be bucking the trend if he got it done this year.
#5 - Stefanos Tsitsipas (17-7) Age: 23
The Greek’s season so far has been solid without being great. He’s made some deep runs, but I think he will be disappointed to come into April title-less. He has a lot of clay points to defend (3020 pts) and came within a set of winning RG last year before losing in five to Djokovic. The major hole in his game for me is his defensive backhand; he lacks a great slice and that hurts him when handling pace and width on the hard courts. However, clay gives him a bit more space and time to hit over his one-hander and it has certainly been his best surface in recent years, with the Greek featuring as one of the heaviest hitters off both wings on clay. His 52-week return stats earn him 35th spot on the ATP tour, but when we focus just on clay, he pushes up into the top-20. I expect him to be a major threat again this year.
#7 - Casper Ruud (13-4) Age: 23
The Norwegian’s preferred surface is clay, but he’s done well on hard courts and is coming off the back of a maiden 1000 final in Miami. His forehand and backhand both register more spin than nearly any other player on clay, and his extreme grips are well suited to the high bouncing dirt. He went 17-5 in the clay swing last year, including semi-finals in Monte Carlo (1000), Munich (250), Madrid (1000), and a title in Geneva (250). He lost in the third round of Roland Garros last year in a five-set marathon against another young Spaniard, Davidovich Fokina. A year wiser, I think a second-week showing at the French is on the cards with his current form and confidence. Can he win Roland Garros? I’m not sure his game is complete enough, or his speed fast enough, to take out the title this year. His backhand is still a weakness by top-10 standards. Semi-finals are in his wheelhouse with his form and likely seeding.
#9 - Felix Auger Aliassime (16-5) Age:21
It’s easy to forget that Auger Aliassime is only 21-years-old. Before Alcaraz, Felix was the one breaking young records, and he has already featured in 10 ATP finals (although he has a disappointing 1-9 record). The Canadian has taken big strides in the last 12-months: he’s reached the QF or better in his last three grand slams and won his first title in Rotterdam in February (def. Tsitsipas). He had a disappointing clay season in 2021 (4-6), but he’s been under the supervision of Toni Nadal for over a year now, and I think his heavy shots can trouble the best on his day. Can he win Roland Garros? I don’t think he can win this year, but he can certainly cause a few headaches along the way. As good as his offensive game is, I think his returns and defence need to be tightened up before he becomes a real contender. Madrid’s speed and bounce may be his best chance for a clay Masters title. His season gets underway this week in Marrakech (250), as the number 1 seed. A good showing here would be ideal after a disappointing Sunshine Double.
#11 - Carlos Alcaraz (18-2) Age: 18
Technically not top-101, but it’s only a matter of time. He already has a clay title under his belt this year; he became the youngest winner of an ATP500 event in Rio back in February, and just today became the youngest ever Miami champion. I’m very bullish on his clay hopes and think he is a top-4 Roland Garros contender. The movement, the forehand, the drop shot, the mentality. He’s got every facet covered, and although his serve has been vulnerable, his kick serves in Miami this week have been very effective and will only help him more on the dirt. The tennis world has seen what he can do on a hard court, and he confesses that he feels equally capable on clay and hard. If that’s the case, more records may tumble in April and May. I think he can win Roland Garros and so do the bookies—he’s already shortened into $5 since I last tweeted his odds on March 19th:
#12 - Jannik Sinner (16-4) Age: 20
Forget the number, this kid is playing top-10 tennis. I wrote on him recently, and rate his groundstrokes very highly. He pulverizes the ball, and moves his lanky frame really well. He went 10-6 on the clay swing last year with a semi-final showing in Barcelona (def. by Tsitsipas) and a fourth round run at Roland Garros (def. by Nadal). In fact, his last two French Open campaigns have been halted by Nadal (a quarterfinal loss in 2020), and although he did not take a set in either of those two meetings, he is a better player this year, and returning very well by anyone’s standards. Can he win RG? I don’t think he can win this year’s edition, but I think a Masters win is on the cards, along with a deep French run.
#34 - Tommy Paul (14-7) Age: 24
One of only two Americans on my radar, Tommy Paul is no stranger to clay. Paul cut his teeth on clay courts in North Carolina as a junior and won the 2015 junior Roland Garros title. He’s had a very strong start to the year on the hard courts, and I think he can cause a lot of headaches for top players on clay as well. His forehand and serve are really heavy weapons, and he looks comfortable sliding and moving on clay. His results in recent years have been promising without any notable wins—he lost to Ruud in five sets at the 2020 French Open and made the semi-final in Parma (250) last year. He looks fitter and mentally stronger in 2022. I think he can add a few more top-10 scalps to his season over the coming dirt months.
#36 - Jenson Brooksby (12-5) Age: 21
The other American, although he certainly doesn’t fit the US player mold. Brooksby reminds me of Andy Murray, a clever counter-punching scrapper with great anticipation and court awareness. His ability to consistently hit line off both wings means he’s going to have a great career no matter the surface. His serve is still weak considering his height, but he’s already toppled Tsitsipas, RBA, and Khachanov this year and I think will be inside the top-20 soon. I’m not sure clay is his favourite surface, but he will be tough to beat for anyone.
#38 - Miomir Kecmanovic (19-7) Age: 24
The Serb teamed up with David Nalbandian last year in what was a pretty disappointing season. He started to get a bit of form towards the end of 2021, but still lost close matches time and again. A bit of luck at the start of this year (he took Djokovic’s place in the AO draw as the number 1 seed) kick-started a run of rich form and he very nearly took out Alcaraz in Miami a few days ago, looking every bit a top-10 prospect. He has a title on clay (Kitzbuhel 250, 2020) and with his unrelenting groundstrokes and newfound confidence, players on this kind of a run usually just keep going.
#47 - Pedro Martinez (12-7) Age: 24
I’ve watched Martinez for a few years now and have been impressed with his game: a big fighter, good technique, a solid mover. He’s as Spanish as they come, and that tends to work well on clay. He has a clay title this year (Santiago 250) and he tends to play the top guys close. He doesn’t get much attention, but I think he will take out some high seeds this season.
#67 - Daniel Altmaier (9-11) Age: 23
You might remember Altmaier from the 2020 French Open, where he came through qualifying and beat Berrettini along the way to a fourth-round showing. Since then his results have been underwhelming, but he’s built up a little head of steam in the last year. He won three Challenger titles last year (two on clay), and made two 250 semifinals (Umag lost to Gasquet, Kitzbuhel lost to Martinez). He has long swings that benefit from the extra time clay affords, and he’s a real fighter. His forehand lacks a bit of penetration, but I think he comes into this year’s clay season with form, fitness, and a bit more experience.
#82 - Lorenzo Musetti (6-8) Age: 20
Two sets to love up on Djokovic in the fourth round of last year’s French Open. Cracking winners everywhere, oozing talent. It was all downhill from there, going 7-13 from June to December. He possesses a flexed-wrist forehand—which I don’t love—but on clay, I think it is better suited and it is his preferred surface. He has great hands and a good feel for the game—a lot of cat-and-mouse points around the net. He hasn’t started this year much better (6-8) but he will play a long clay season and with his talent I think he will find his mojo again. Rome Masters might be his lucky charm.
#100 - Alejandro Tabilo (18-7) Age: 24
Another player who has been on my radar for a while. He made two Challenger finals on hard last year and won a Challenger on clay. He has a lot of wins already in 2022, including a Challenger final (lost to Altmaier), a 250 final (Cordoba. lost to Ramos), and a 250 semi-final (Santiago, lost to Martinez). A big lefty, he can hit big and fights hard and uses the drop shot well. He’s match-tough and I think he will push well into the top-100 over the coming months.
Who is your early pick for Roland Garros?
I think the bookies are pretty spot-on with the top dogs. It will be interesting to see if Alcaraz performs as well on clay, and Djokovic’s return will be closely watched—he’s only played three matches in the last four months, and that has to hurt a little bit. I think Tsitsipas at $7.50 is the best value. I don’t think he’s playing that poorly, and Nadal and Djokovic are a year older. I suspect Casper Ruud at $21 might shorten by the time the tournament rolls around, but I maintain that he won’t win this year. Kecmanovic at $201 could certainly win a quarter with his current form and may be worth a small bet that could be hedged should he have a deep run.
There is a lot of tennis to be played out before we get to the eve of the French, and it will be interesting to look back on these predictions come May 22nd.
Alcaraz is now 11th with 3411 points—only 29 points behind #10 Cameron Norrie.