Sinner does have an elite return of serve as you say. And he can afford to be patient vs Med as Med can truly only hurt him with his serve. No player to me has the effortless pop/injection of pace off the forehand like Sinner, best in that regard since Federer. And his backhand is top notch. Totality of both wings, no player can take away time like Sinner. It was interesting to me to watch the contrast in forehand technique Sinner and Alcaraz. Alcaraz has the Federer, Nadal, Tsitsipas. Rune etc straight arm pull to contact technique. Sinner has the next gen bent arm/side arm throw technique of Sock, Kyrgios, Berrenttini, Fognini, etc.
Something the Alcaraz match left me wondering about: second serves that bounce low
Carlos got killed on his second serve and I wonder if that's because his serving repertoire lacks a shot that keeps the ball low. Since he started in on summer hardcourt in NA, his kick has felt a little less potent. Not sure if that's the speed of the courts or the lack of bounce, but getting the ball up and away seems his preferred approach. Without that clay/Indian Wells bounce, he doesn't seem to be able to transition to slice serves that stay beneath the returner's hips.
However, I did notice that he seems to have backed off the desire to hit bombs on every first serve. I think his ideal range is 115-120 with more accuracy and better spots. Still, I think he could neutralize Sinner's return better if he could slide more low into the body.
Yeah it's interesting that Alcaraz hasn't been able to win above 50% of points on second serves against Sinner in any of their matches this year, not even in IW.
Agree something moving and into the body would be a good balance between neutralizing sinner's return, and getting more first serves in.
This also hurts him on the wide slice on the deuce court. His ball seems to sit up more. When he tried to serve wide to Medvedev at the US Open, he could not get it to stay low so that the return would be hit up and he could have an easy volley. Alcaraz's serve seems to be more of a kick with less finesse than other serves that can hit corners. It is a VERY GOOD serve. Just a bit less surgical than other top servers. Fed is the one that most comes to mind with the ability to switch spins and locations.
Loved this. Great to see the FH breakdown. At the time watching it, it actually felt like Alcaraz couldn't find a comfortable way to approach Jannik's FH, because 1) he was losing the ad court trade and 2) when he was going there, he was either leaving himself vulnerable to that FH cross on the run or FH in behind, and led to a loss of control. So, maybe I have the wrong read on it but it felt like that, as well as some shorter depths into the FH when Alcaraz had sunk deeper in the ad trade, contributed to the flurry of errors going that way.
Whereas from Jannik's end, I thought he did an increasingly stellar job of exploiting Alcaraz's FH on the run. He started off going for quite direct, cross court aggression, but that didn't really work. When he instead started to go for precision over power, using his ad court superiority with shots like the short-angle inside-out, which Alcaraz can struggle to wrap around the ball to force Jannik's BH to change direction, he was able to expose the FH space and loop it up to an uncomfortable contact point with great margin. Notably, the execution of it didn't need to be perfect, like Alcaraz maybe felt his had to be in the flipped scenario, because he was only able to hit cross court on the run, rather than threatening the space in behind like Jannik did. On top of that, with the way Jannik was taking the follow-up FHs on the rise worked so well to take away time from Alcaraz, not least because the bigger space created + loopier setup shot forced Alcaraz further backwards.
I think Alcaraz has the right tactic now, just didn't execute as well as he could have (which I think is partly due to him being more uncomfortable against someone like Sinner). As i said, Alcaraz was the one who actually got his teeth into a lot more service games in the first set, so I would love to see these two meet again soon this year and get another edition. It's top quality stuff.
Observation: to my eyes, Sinner takes the ball very, very early. The only other person on that level of course, is Djokovic, if he wants too. But Sinner taking the ball early seems to be a habit. As you pointed out before, Alcaraz's forehand has some technical flaws, so when Sinner rushes him he is more error prone.
Question: Did Sinner do something differently to improve his first serve? He changed back to pinpoint, but I feel that his serves got faster in China. Just a few weeks after the USO? Is Darren Cahill THIS good?
Finally, Sinner figures things out alone on court. He also doesn't use social media that much. He keeps his head down and works hard. He is old school.
In comparison, Alcaraz is the new generation kid. Using social media and all. His coach also directs so much more on court. I feel that JCF needs to let the kid go a bit and figure things out himself. The training wheels need to come off for greater long term development.
Sinner went back to pin point and got rid of the delayed racquet head (a la Federer/Kyrgios). Motion looks clean and simple and I think he has settled on this and is reaping the rewards. (I have no idea if it is Cahill's doing, plus Cahill has been on Sinner's team for over a year now).
Will be interesting to see this rivalry play out over the next 6-12 months—especially if they both stay up in the rankings, the matches will always be important/finals/semis
Sinner is less demonstrative than Alcaraz, but he's also got one of the largest coaching entourages on the tour. He gets plenty of help and encouragement during the match.
As far as social media and overall attention goes, Alcaraz has won two majors in very entertaining fashion. It comes with the territory. And it's hard to claim Sinner is a stoic introvert when he's modeling for Gucci:
Few things top off my head that I'd love your opinion on:
1) Relentless agression is definitely the way against Alcaraz. He may have a bit of a solution now against Sinner by being more patient, but he still has issues executing it. 2nd was full of moments where Alcaraz was too stubborn in agression.
2) Sinner seems better to me from the D to D corner than Alcaraz. While I would take Alcaraz's ferrys wheel any day over Sinner's merry go-round when it comes to overall consistency, the fact he moves so well from end range and his FH takes less time to set-up makes it less shaky in my opinion.
However I think you're right he could make it better by employing less open - stance FH. He was tidier against Medvedev but I think the blue print is still on timing rather than recovery.
3) Point 2 brings me to point 3 : I had no doubt Sinner could beat Alcaraz, but was getting worried for his matchup against Alcaraz just because he used to play just likes Medvedev loves and at some point he would break from the back, especially from his FH (which isn't the case for Carlos as his bread and butter FH doesn't break much often).
But he did. He employed the S&V well and created variations that allowed him to turn the match around. The thing is : can he do so *consistently*. The key stat for me was Sinner putting 68% first serve in (and his margin was in the 0-4 shots as Gil Gross mentioned). That's something he almost never does and hurt him. Is his new motion from Toronto finally the good iteration and tradeoff of consistency and damage? Maybe.
He also, as you said, kept his FH very tidy and today the longer exchanges were even but that I kinda doubt he can now do it every time they play given his technique.
4) Tennis Insights highlighted the backhand cross court (A to A or B to C) as a winning play of 17 to 4!! for Jannik against Alcaraz (that includes winners, forced erros and unforced errors and shots that gain an advantage). I don't know how reliable it is, but while I know Sinner's backhand is better, it struck me.
Sinner gets the inside line more frequently, has a great drop that generates a devil spin, but still, Alcaraz's BH isn't Felix's or Rublev's. It held up in the cross against Novak at Wimbledon which to me is a testimony. He doesnt quite get the inside line often but is closer to a 180° than a 90°, and has that locked wrist feature. Impressive. I think Alcaraz's range when pulled wide is a little smaller than Sinner's, also.
1) Definitely has shown to be effective from Sinner/Struff/Marozsan, but few players have the game to execute that. i still think a great counterpuncher in Meddy and Djoker can get there wins in also.
2) Both these guys have a little chink in the armour out wide on the forehand I think. Sinner can get set quicker but when he is really moving to his right the shanks can come in bunches. His movement is looking great though. Alcaraz has shown he can adapt his wide forehand footwork. Will be interesting to see how this pans out in the next year or two.
3) I think this serve motion is the one! I think the forehand is fine when not rushed, but Meddy isn't the player to expose his forehand; need someone who brings more heat.
4) I prefer Sinner's backhand. Alcaraz's is good for taking the ball early and flattening the ball out/changing direction. But Sinner gets the outside of the ball and can hit a heavy, heavy backhand with consistency.
I think Medvedev can expose Sinner’s FH not by bringing heat but simply by putting one more ball and in consistency I think he’s got the advantage. From a set position I prefer Alcaraz’s FH
As for the backhand, I think as you said in the beggining of the piece, he should not employ Sinner’s game: go down the line or slice instead
Medvedev in Vienna right now again playing Sinner, appears to be trying hold the baseline a little better and dictate. Change of strategy after the loss here? Great players adapt...
Loved those clips of the sinner out wide forehands! You make your points very understandable.
Sinner does have an elite return of serve as you say. And he can afford to be patient vs Med as Med can truly only hurt him with his serve. No player to me has the effortless pop/injection of pace off the forehand like Sinner, best in that regard since Federer. And his backhand is top notch. Totality of both wings, no player can take away time like Sinner. It was interesting to me to watch the contrast in forehand technique Sinner and Alcaraz. Alcaraz has the Federer, Nadal, Tsitsipas. Rune etc straight arm pull to contact technique. Sinner has the next gen bent arm/side arm throw technique of Sock, Kyrgios, Berrenttini, Fognini, etc.
Something the Alcaraz match left me wondering about: second serves that bounce low
Carlos got killed on his second serve and I wonder if that's because his serving repertoire lacks a shot that keeps the ball low. Since he started in on summer hardcourt in NA, his kick has felt a little less potent. Not sure if that's the speed of the courts or the lack of bounce, but getting the ball up and away seems his preferred approach. Without that clay/Indian Wells bounce, he doesn't seem to be able to transition to slice serves that stay beneath the returner's hips.
However, I did notice that he seems to have backed off the desire to hit bombs on every first serve. I think his ideal range is 115-120 with more accuracy and better spots. Still, I think he could neutralize Sinner's return better if he could slide more low into the body.
Yeah it's interesting that Alcaraz hasn't been able to win above 50% of points on second serves against Sinner in any of their matches this year, not even in IW.
Agree something moving and into the body would be a good balance between neutralizing sinner's return, and getting more first serves in.
This also hurts him on the wide slice on the deuce court. His ball seems to sit up more. When he tried to serve wide to Medvedev at the US Open, he could not get it to stay low so that the return would be hit up and he could have an easy volley. Alcaraz's serve seems to be more of a kick with less finesse than other serves that can hit corners. It is a VERY GOOD serve. Just a bit less surgical than other top servers. Fed is the one that most comes to mind with the ability to switch spins and locations.
thing is it should be possible.
It's easier to serve slice when you're tall, but JJ Wolf and Osuke Watanuki have two of the best right-handed slice serves in the game.
Loved this. Great to see the FH breakdown. At the time watching it, it actually felt like Alcaraz couldn't find a comfortable way to approach Jannik's FH, because 1) he was losing the ad court trade and 2) when he was going there, he was either leaving himself vulnerable to that FH cross on the run or FH in behind, and led to a loss of control. So, maybe I have the wrong read on it but it felt like that, as well as some shorter depths into the FH when Alcaraz had sunk deeper in the ad trade, contributed to the flurry of errors going that way.
Whereas from Jannik's end, I thought he did an increasingly stellar job of exploiting Alcaraz's FH on the run. He started off going for quite direct, cross court aggression, but that didn't really work. When he instead started to go for precision over power, using his ad court superiority with shots like the short-angle inside-out, which Alcaraz can struggle to wrap around the ball to force Jannik's BH to change direction, he was able to expose the FH space and loop it up to an uncomfortable contact point with great margin. Notably, the execution of it didn't need to be perfect, like Alcaraz maybe felt his had to be in the flipped scenario, because he was only able to hit cross court on the run, rather than threatening the space in behind like Jannik did. On top of that, with the way Jannik was taking the follow-up FHs on the rise worked so well to take away time from Alcaraz, not least because the bigger space created + loopier setup shot forced Alcaraz further backwards.
I think Alcaraz has the right tactic now, just didn't execute as well as he could have (which I think is partly due to him being more uncomfortable against someone like Sinner). As i said, Alcaraz was the one who actually got his teeth into a lot more service games in the first set, so I would love to see these two meet again soon this year and get another edition. It's top quality stuff.
One observation and one question:
Observation: to my eyes, Sinner takes the ball very, very early. The only other person on that level of course, is Djokovic, if he wants too. But Sinner taking the ball early seems to be a habit. As you pointed out before, Alcaraz's forehand has some technical flaws, so when Sinner rushes him he is more error prone.
Question: Did Sinner do something differently to improve his first serve? He changed back to pinpoint, but I feel that his serves got faster in China. Just a few weeks after the USO? Is Darren Cahill THIS good?
Finally, Sinner figures things out alone on court. He also doesn't use social media that much. He keeps his head down and works hard. He is old school.
In comparison, Alcaraz is the new generation kid. Using social media and all. His coach also directs so much more on court. I feel that JCF needs to let the kid go a bit and figure things out himself. The training wheels need to come off for greater long term development.
Sinner went back to pin point and got rid of the delayed racquet head (a la Federer/Kyrgios). Motion looks clean and simple and I think he has settled on this and is reaping the rewards. (I have no idea if it is Cahill's doing, plus Cahill has been on Sinner's team for over a year now).
Will be interesting to see this rivalry play out over the next 6-12 months—especially if they both stay up in the rankings, the matches will always be important/finals/semis
Sinner is less demonstrative than Alcaraz, but he's also got one of the largest coaching entourages on the tour. He gets plenty of help and encouragement during the match.
As far as social media and overall attention goes, Alcaraz has won two majors in very entertaining fashion. It comes with the territory. And it's hard to claim Sinner is a stoic introvert when he's modeling for Gucci:
https://imgstatic.soldoutservice.com/BFT7WM0b/94d4ae0e80b/s2000/jannik-sinner-gucci-ambassador.jpg
Hi Hugh. As always, great analysis.
Few things top off my head that I'd love your opinion on:
1) Relentless agression is definitely the way against Alcaraz. He may have a bit of a solution now against Sinner by being more patient, but he still has issues executing it. 2nd was full of moments where Alcaraz was too stubborn in agression.
2) Sinner seems better to me from the D to D corner than Alcaraz. While I would take Alcaraz's ferrys wheel any day over Sinner's merry go-round when it comes to overall consistency, the fact he moves so well from end range and his FH takes less time to set-up makes it less shaky in my opinion.
However I think you're right he could make it better by employing less open - stance FH. He was tidier against Medvedev but I think the blue print is still on timing rather than recovery.
3) Point 2 brings me to point 3 : I had no doubt Sinner could beat Alcaraz, but was getting worried for his matchup against Alcaraz just because he used to play just likes Medvedev loves and at some point he would break from the back, especially from his FH (which isn't the case for Carlos as his bread and butter FH doesn't break much often).
But he did. He employed the S&V well and created variations that allowed him to turn the match around. The thing is : can he do so *consistently*. The key stat for me was Sinner putting 68% first serve in (and his margin was in the 0-4 shots as Gil Gross mentioned). That's something he almost never does and hurt him. Is his new motion from Toronto finally the good iteration and tradeoff of consistency and damage? Maybe.
He also, as you said, kept his FH very tidy and today the longer exchanges were even but that I kinda doubt he can now do it every time they play given his technique.
4) Tennis Insights highlighted the backhand cross court (A to A or B to C) as a winning play of 17 to 4!! for Jannik against Alcaraz (that includes winners, forced erros and unforced errors and shots that gain an advantage). I don't know how reliable it is, but while I know Sinner's backhand is better, it struck me.
Sinner gets the inside line more frequently, has a great drop that generates a devil spin, but still, Alcaraz's BH isn't Felix's or Rublev's. It held up in the cross against Novak at Wimbledon which to me is a testimony. He doesnt quite get the inside line often but is closer to a 180° than a 90°, and has that locked wrist feature. Impressive. I think Alcaraz's range when pulled wide is a little smaller than Sinner's, also.
1) Definitely has shown to be effective from Sinner/Struff/Marozsan, but few players have the game to execute that. i still think a great counterpuncher in Meddy and Djoker can get there wins in also.
2) Both these guys have a little chink in the armour out wide on the forehand I think. Sinner can get set quicker but when he is really moving to his right the shanks can come in bunches. His movement is looking great though. Alcaraz has shown he can adapt his wide forehand footwork. Will be interesting to see how this pans out in the next year or two.
3) I think this serve motion is the one! I think the forehand is fine when not rushed, but Meddy isn't the player to expose his forehand; need someone who brings more heat.
4) I prefer Sinner's backhand. Alcaraz's is good for taking the ball early and flattening the ball out/changing direction. But Sinner gets the outside of the ball and can hit a heavy, heavy backhand with consistency.
I think Medvedev can expose Sinner’s FH not by bringing heat but simply by putting one more ball and in consistency I think he’s got the advantage. From a set position I prefer Alcaraz’s FH
As for the backhand, I think as you said in the beggining of the piece, he should not employ Sinner’s game: go down the line or slice instead
Medvedev in Vienna right now again playing Sinner, appears to be trying hold the baseline a little better and dictate. Change of strategy after the loss here? Great players adapt...