Australian Open Update Round 2

Nowgen — Shapo — trigger grips and fist grips — Machac - Shelton

Nowgen

The Nextgen class of 2024 has quickly established themselves on the main tour this week, with five of the eight players reaching the second-round of the Australian Open.

Tien

The young lefty American is a stylistic nightmare for Medvedev, especially in cooler evening conditions, and he pulled off a very impressive upset last night (highlights) to earn a third-round match against Corentin Moutet. I didn’t think Learner would have the legs for five sets of cool-evening-fluffy-Dunlop-Medvedev, especially given he had a five-set match in the first round (that I got to watch for a bit), and had to come through qualifying. The fitness was impressive. As I wrote about last month, Tien has exceptional accuracy off the ground and a very high tennis IQ. He knows his own game so well and plays to his lefty strengths. He was able to stretch Medvedev from side to side with great proficiency. His next match against Moutet is going to be interesting, as the fellow lefty Frenchman is a tricky rhythm disrupter who can play cat-and-mouse with the best of them. This is going to be a rare lightweight all-lefty match which should be full of variation and cagey rallies. I’m picking Moutet to upset Tien given the mileage on the American, who has already spent nearly 9 hours on court in the main draw alone.

Mensik

The young Czech is rather quietly building an impressive resume, earning his fifth top 10 win over Casper Ruud in the second round. The serve and backhand are elite, and his ability to slide into the forehand makes him a very difficult player to get on top of. He’s kind of in a Hubert Hurkacz mold but with a better forehand, and I think he will get the better of ADF today.

Sidenote — so many great flat backhands are excelling on these low bouncing courts with the deader Dunlop balls: Mensik, ADF, Fonseca, Tien, Machac, Djokovic, Kecmanovic, Michelsen, Draper, Fritz, Giron, Vukic (almost backspin), Lehecka, Alcaraz, Paul, RCB, Humbert, Rune, Khachanov, and the lone one-hander survivor in Lorenzo Musetti has done an excellent job slicing (as did Berrettini). Additionally, we have FIVE lefties into round 3 of a major. When was the last time that happened?

Fils

The highest-ranked Nextgenner, Fils is in the third round of a major for the first time in his career. I think he has a tough match today against Humbert given the conditions suit his flatter-hitting countryman. Clay season is where Fils will really hit his stride, but let’s see what he can do today to reverse a 1-4 H2H (although Fils won their most recent encounter).

Michelsen

Is this the most under-rated player in the top 50? Michelsen was so impressive in his Tsitsipas win, redirecting that flat backhand at will to expose the Greek’s forehand seeking. He takes on Khachanov tomorrow, and I’m picking Michelsen to get another seeded win here. I think his line backhand is as good, if not better, than the Russian’s, and he has better intangibles around the forecourt. Khachanov is an iron-man in the first week of majors, so it won’t be easy. Michelsen in 5.

Basavereddy

Played a great match in the first round against Novak Djokovic. You can see in his game how much he idolised the Serb. The technique is uncannily similar in a lot of respects. Another guy with a great backhand. Can’t see him not establishing himself in the top-100.

Fonseca

Fonseca played Sonego yesterday on Court 1573 (they don’t have that many courts, 1573 is a Chinese liquor brand). I had to line up for seventy-five minutes on what was a 15-metre pilgrimage to get a seat. Fonseca fever is real, and it appeared to have half of Rio de Janeiro packed into the intimate sunken bull-ring. Mexican waves, vuvuzelas, and some Portuguese chant I couldn’t decipher were the norm between points. I’ve said it before, but South America’s passion — and sheer tennis talent and depth — are deserving of bigger tournaments than just a few 250s and a 500:

I caught sets two to five, and when I entered it’s safe to say Fonseca was playing….terribly. His range was way off, and Sonego is such a pro’s pro; the intensity and physicality are under-appreciated. I though that Fonseca might fade physically given he’s already played eight matches this year and is still a junior in the legs, but he found his range in the fourth and had chances to break at 3-3 in the fifth. To Sonego’s credit he came up with two screaming forehand passes at 4-3 to earn the break. I don’t know how much longer he will be with On after this:

Plus, On’s clothing the last two years has just been recycled variations of an unfinished/faded tie-dye, as if the tennis designs have been an afterthought having come up with a million variations of cloud-something shoes. Let’s get the kid in some worthy kits. Will Nike be willing to go big on Alcaraz, Sinner, and Fonseca? Adidas has already got Mensik, Tsitsipas, Zverev, and Dimitrov in shoes. Lacoste? Yonex? Whoever takes it on will need deep pockets.

I also have enjoyed seeing the chip return in these young kids. Tien, Musetti, and Fonseca are all super proficient at the forehand block return. Matt Willis of

The Racquet

got a great slow mo at court level from yesterday’s match:

Another interesting tidbit of Fonseca’s game is how the top hand on his backhand appears to be a more extreme semi-western grip compared to most. I’m touching on some variations in grip styles for an upcoming forehand piece, but you can see the difference with Medvedev between a trigger grip and a fist grip, where the index finger is either spread out or closer relative to the other fingers:

Fonseca has all four fingers close together, with the index finger under the thumb, whereas Medvedev splays out his index finger like you would for a serve/continental grip. You also see these trigger vs fist grip variations on forehands (and even Fonseca's serve grip has the index finger rather close).

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Shapovalov

I watched Shapovalov play Musetti for a set or so yesterday, and I gotta say, the attitude and overall development of the Canadian has been disappointing. Shapovalov burst onto the scene with a mesmerizing display of lefty power tennis against Nadal in 2017.

Back then you felt there was such a strong base of power across the serve and groundstrokes that it would only be a matter of time before he developed a transition game and a regular slot in the top 10. That hasn’t materialised at all, and there were key moments yesterday where the volley let him down, like this break point chance at 2-2:

You can see also how Shapo struggles to get that approach forehand up and down. Musetti’s slice is serving him well this week on the slick courts here. One thing Shapo did do better after this miss was start to volley short. It keeps the swing shorter, so you’re less likely to spray your volley like he did here, but also stops guys getting a topspin look at the next pass.

It was also interesting, to me at least, to note the body language and box-bickering that consumes much of a Musetti and Shapovalov between-point routine. Both men appear tormented, and waste so much energy and attention on things that are simply out of their control. The difference between these two, versus Alcaraz and Sinner, or even Tien and Fonseca (who have been impressive in that regard in my limited viewing) is stark. Rune is in the former category still. Winning slams is a marathon, and you have to think that organizing your mental state into something calmer and more focused toward things you can control would help these guys.

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Machac over Djokovic

This was a third-round match I had pencilled in. Djokovic has been unconvincing to me in the opening couple of rounds, and I think the young Czech will get the win tonight as the upset of the day.

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Ben’s backhand

It was interesting just now listening to Gill Gross’ latest round recap how Shelton had mentioned that his off season focus had been on improving his movement, return, and backhand. In other words, the young American has focused on improving his weaknesses in the off-season, not his strengths. I’ve seen very little of Shelton this week, but is the backhand takeback a little higher now, getting into a higher power position? Let’s call it the reverse Alcaraz, or the lefty Zverev. Seriously though, it’s not always that high, and it might be a subtle change, but it looks like he is getting it a little higher in the setup. This will help generate a little more racquet speed because you can use gravity a little more with the racquet dropping and extend the elbow more in the downswing.

That’s all for now. Happy to get Machac vs Djokovic tonight. Next on the wishlist: Rune vs Sinner.

See you in the comments. HC.