I don’t think the level of tennis has gotten any better over the past 6-7 years. Especially not too the amount that it causes tsitsipas to go from an AO final to a first round exit. Since if you follow that reasoning Nadal and Djokovic and other older players have also improved in insane ways since these guys were still able to keep up into 2023. Players don’t just improve like that randomly to insane amounts. The level on tour has been the same now for 15 years and the women’s tour has seen a clear decline. Tsitsipas is just coping talking about new technologies or whatever instead of looking at his own game.
Better? Maybe not as you say, but I do think it has gotten faster and more aggressive, and that has disproportionally hurt Tsitsipas, who is terrible at defending the most common shield side in tennis.
On top of that the reason for the new nextgen being more complete is that they lack big 3 level ground strokes and serve like the original next gen has/had them (or got close).
Great insight as always! Steff has an okay serve for his height. No way to slow the game without a slice. He came up overpowering his opponents. At some point that stopped working. Just happening earlier now.
yeah the error stat is a bit misleading for that kind of match because both are so consistent/under-powered/playing in slow evening conditions, so they have these incredibly long and cagey rallies that more often end in an error rather than winner.
Fair, but that also underscores my distaste for that matchup. I like Medvedev bc he's a huge contrast to most players. When he plays a mirror image of himself, it's less appealing. Tien out Medvedev'd Medvedev.
Also, is Medvedev unable to hit winners anymore? His shots felt frail.
The only thing with the coaching pods, we need microphones there. There's not point having them close if viewers can't listen to exactly what they are saying. Also can they do some sort of live AI translation for non-English speakers.
Pumped for Joao!! Joao vs Alcaraz would be INSANE.
I watched Fonseca - Michelsen live last year in Madrid's Court 3 and what struck me about Fonseca is the smoothness and range of the hip uncoiling motion on groundstrokes. Fluid and very powerful, as in the GIF here (with the body flipping almost 180º at the end, that's huge leg drive).
Aus open is terrible for big underdogs. I don’t love anything today but Rune and Musetti as slight underdogs surprises me, and I think PCB is a good shot v Shelton.
"It’s one of the best plays — this crush and rush — that I think is going to get more popular in the coming years."
Indeed, top WTA players (most notoriously Sabalenka, most noticeably on clay) have been chewing second serves for a while and it's absolutely brutal to watch when the physical strength of the server starts to drop. I wonder if there are more tactics / techniques still to cross tours - the kneeling groundstrokes?
I think kneeling ground strokes (you mean women hitting them, yes?) aren’t likely to come to the men’s for two reasons: 1) the need for a kneeling shot arises when you’re caught on the baseline by a ball right to the feet. Men have the strength to muscle the ball from there with the wrist and forearm where women tend to need a fuller swing 2) women are more flexible, in general, and that’s a flexibility move!
Yeah, that's what I meant. While I agree with the overall assessment that it's unlikely to happen (at least with it being widespread), I'd still argue that even top men often handle those feet balls suboptimally [1], not because of lack of strength, but because of a combination of space, time, racket plow/stability and technical choices* (though this is not universal, some folks are rather proficient at it). I think it's less about flexibility (athletic men more than meet the flexibility requirements; hell, even I've done similar shots a few times, much to my surprise) than about body mass and strength distribution, center of gravity, hip geometry and activation, and tactical aspects (if you can keep the pressure from the baseline in a WTA match without having to step back a meter that's valuable time you're stealing, while a man can just use 1 meter of extra space and compensate additional distance with extra pace and safety). But yeah, it's absolutely more of a speculative thought experiment than a realistic thesis.
Audio is Spanish but video is helpful. A bit of a shame they didn't pick a more recent reference point for comparison (some of the changes were already implemented last year IIRC)
Hugh, where did you get the percent win by rally length? Alcaraz winning > 70% when serving and 50% when not serving for rallies > 9 shots looks suspect unless it's a very small sample size. By 9 shots the rally becomes close to "neutral", so the discrepancy between serve and return should start to equalize. If Alcaraz is the best player "at neutral" then his performance should be mirrored for return of serve (e.g. he should be an outlier to the pack).
Fonseca is listed at 162 lb right now -- I get the feeling he's gonna get another 20 lb and be solid like Tsonga in a few years. When he gets set on that forehand, holy cow. It reminded me of a young Delpo's power.
Probably is close to the ideal shape now, why carry the extra weight when you can already blast the ball at 181 kmh! much better for injury prevention and agility.
He doesn't look like a 162 right now...could simply be that the stats are behind, like how Jannik was 6'2" for a good two years while he was two inches taller.
I don’t think the level of tennis has gotten any better over the past 6-7 years. Especially not too the amount that it causes tsitsipas to go from an AO final to a first round exit. Since if you follow that reasoning Nadal and Djokovic and other older players have also improved in insane ways since these guys were still able to keep up into 2023. Players don’t just improve like that randomly to insane amounts. The level on tour has been the same now for 15 years and the women’s tour has seen a clear decline. Tsitsipas is just coping talking about new technologies or whatever instead of looking at his own game.
Better? Maybe not as you say, but I do think it has gotten faster and more aggressive, and that has disproportionally hurt Tsitsipas, who is terrible at defending the most common shield side in tennis.
On top of that the reason for the new nextgen being more complete is that they lack big 3 level ground strokes and serve like the original next gen has/had them (or got close).
I'm still patiently waiting for your backhand piece :-)
For someone in particular?? I have so many drafts!
was also in the stands for Musetti - so impressive in person, the smoothness really doesn’t translate as well to TV
so fluid as an athlete
Great insight as always! Steff has an okay serve for his height. No way to slow the game without a slice. He came up overpowering his opponents. At some point that stopped working. Just happening earlier now.
For aesthetic reasons alone, I’m not sure Medvedev and Tien should ever be allowed to play each other again.
That said, I really appreciate how developed Tien's backhand slice is.
PS - 161 errors across 5 sets. 30+ errors per set.
yeah the error stat is a bit misleading for that kind of match because both are so consistent/under-powered/playing in slow evening conditions, so they have these incredibly long and cagey rallies that more often end in an error rather than winner.
Fair, but that also underscores my distaste for that matchup. I like Medvedev bc he's a huge contrast to most players. When he plays a mirror image of himself, it's less appealing. Tien out Medvedev'd Medvedev.
Also, is Medvedev unable to hit winners anymore? His shots felt frail.
The only thing with the coaching pods, we need microphones there. There's not point having them close if viewers can't listen to exactly what they are saying. Also can they do some sort of live AI translation for non-English speakers.
Pumped for Joao!! Joao vs Alcaraz would be INSANE.
Only issue then is that the opposition coaching team can easily find out what their opponent is being told
I think Tiley is trying to get the coaches used to the seating position and then pop in the mics next year.
I watched Fonseca - Michelsen live last year in Madrid's Court 3 and what struck me about Fonseca is the smoothness and range of the hip uncoiling motion on groundstrokes. Fluid and very powerful, as in the GIF here (with the body flipping almost 180º at the end, that's huge leg drive).
Hugh, us degens need another wave of pics after those lemons you threw our way for round 1! Haha
Another great piece my man!
Aus open is terrible for big underdogs. I don’t love anything today but Rune and Musetti as slight underdogs surprises me, and I think PCB is a good shot v Shelton.
Great column. Enjoyed reading all you had to say.
Great stuff, Hugh.
Re: Tsitsipas falling behind
I think we're seeing this with Medvedev, too.
to a much lesser degree, and due to other factors (shoulder issue on serve mainly).
he's also smarter than tsitsipas. but the physicality is catching up with him.
Do we add Ruud to this as well?
Rublev, Tsitsipas, Ruud, and almost Medvedev go down in the first two rounds...at the hands of young, powerful players
I agree with that.
"It’s one of the best plays — this crush and rush — that I think is going to get more popular in the coming years."
Indeed, top WTA players (most notoriously Sabalenka, most noticeably on clay) have been chewing second serves for a while and it's absolutely brutal to watch when the physical strength of the server starts to drop. I wonder if there are more tactics / techniques still to cross tours - the kneeling groundstrokes?
I think kneeling ground strokes (you mean women hitting them, yes?) aren’t likely to come to the men’s for two reasons: 1) the need for a kneeling shot arises when you’re caught on the baseline by a ball right to the feet. Men have the strength to muscle the ball from there with the wrist and forearm where women tend to need a fuller swing 2) women are more flexible, in general, and that’s a flexibility move!
Yeah, that's what I meant. While I agree with the overall assessment that it's unlikely to happen (at least with it being widespread), I'd still argue that even top men often handle those feet balls suboptimally [1], not because of lack of strength, but because of a combination of space, time, racket plow/stability and technical choices* (though this is not universal, some folks are rather proficient at it). I think it's less about flexibility (athletic men more than meet the flexibility requirements; hell, even I've done similar shots a few times, much to my surprise) than about body mass and strength distribution, center of gravity, hip geometry and activation, and tactical aspects (if you can keep the pressure from the baseline in a WTA match without having to step back a meter that's valuable time you're stealing, while a man can just use 1 meter of extra space and compensate additional distance with extra pace and safety). But yeah, it's absolutely more of a speculative thought experiment than a realistic thesis.
[1] e.g. this weak +1 (to a rather tricky return, to be fair) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dW85cU6rbkw#t=1m20s
Good points on kneeling move in women’s game.
Carlitos' serve motion analysis by Corretja for Eurosport: https://x.com/Eurosport_ES/status/1879510091873059056
Audio is Spanish but video is helpful. A bit of a shame they didn't pick a more recent reference point for comparison (some of the changes were already implemented last year IIRC)
Hugh, where did you get the percent win by rally length? Alcaraz winning > 70% when serving and 50% when not serving for rallies > 9 shots looks suspect unless it's a very small sample size. By 9 shots the rally becomes close to "neutral", so the discrepancy between serve and return should start to equalize. If Alcaraz is the best player "at neutral" then his performance should be mirrored for return of serve (e.g. he should be an outlier to the pack).
From tennis insights
https://x.com/tennis_insights/status/1878390968648434149?s=46
They usually do these stats for 52 weeks but they didn’t say for this particular post.
Worth noting only around 10% of points become 9+
Fonseca is listed at 162 lb right now -- I get the feeling he's gonna get another 20 lb and be solid like Tsonga in a few years. When he gets set on that forehand, holy cow. It reminded me of a young Delpo's power.
Probably is close to the ideal shape now, why carry the extra weight when you can already blast the ball at 181 kmh! much better for injury prevention and agility.
He doesn't look like a 162 right now...could simply be that the stats are behind, like how Jannik was 6'2" for a good two years while he was two inches taller.
Let's hope the weight gain is in his legs. Heavy on top just doesn't work that well in tennis.