Australian Open Sweet-16

seed success — preview and predictions

After one week of play 16 men remain.

Amazingly, 30 of the 32 seeds survived the first round and 15 of the top-16 seeds survived the second round.¹

A preview of each match:

Djokovic vs. Mannarino

Djokovic was made to work in his opening two rounds and was below his best, although much credit must be given to Prižmić and Popyrin for playing well. He steadied the ship and looked stronger against Etcheverry. At 35 years-old Mannarino has survived back-to-back-to-back five set matches and is in career-best form, but such an arduous path has surely resigned him to exit here against Djokovic; an opponent he may not be aware of until right before the match. Mannarino, with his low and flat counterpunching strokes, has the style to trouble Djokovic. Unfortunately he will not have the stamina. The legs feed the wolf. Djokovic in 3.

Fritz vs. Tsitsipas

Before the tournament I would have picked Fritz to win this match. Tsitsipas had come off an injury-plagued off-season and looked jaded in the United Cup. However, the Greek crowds and Melbourne conditions seemingly rejuvenate Tsitsipas, and he has looked stronger with each passing match. Fritz had an opening round scare but has steadied the ship, dispatching Gaston in under two hours and convincingly closing out Marozsán down the home stretch. Tsitsipas leads their H2H 3-1 (3-0 on hard courts), with Fritz winning their most recent encounter at Monte Carlo in 2023. The lower bounce suits Tsitsipas more than Fritz, and the Greek has an edge in movement and forehand potency. Add in a healthy dose of Greek support and I’m picking last year’s runner-up to come through and set a rematch of last year’s final. Tsitsipas in 4.

Sinner vs. Khachanov

Jannik Sinner is arguably the most in-form player at the Australian Open right now. The tail-end of 2023 was blistering, featuring multiple wins over Medvedev and Djokovic. So far he’s crushed three relatively easy opponents, although Baez — despite that scoreline — played very good ball and just came up against a Sinner on fire. Karen Khachanov continues to prove he’s the AK-47 of men’s grand slam tennis; clay, grass, hard — it doesn’t matter — he’ll reach the latter rounds without jamming. He saved 17/19 break points in his third round match against Macháč and produced only three break points himself, capitalising on two occasions. He actually lost more points than he won (145 to 147). Yet he has struggled to deliver a truly exceptional run. 12 times now the Russian has reached the fourth round or better at slams. In all those runs he has beaten a top-10 player a grand total of once (against del Potro at the 2019 French Open) and a top-20 player on five occasions. The Russian has a seemingly high floor but low ceiling, and history suggests he will struggle to match Sinner should the Italian bring the level he has been showcasing recently. Sinner in 4.

Rublev vs. de Minaur

What a delicious match this should be. Two evenly matched players in career-best form. The Aussie leads the H2H 3-2, although Rublev has won two of the last three. de Minaur is riding the hopes of a nation and has destroyed a couple of tough Italians. Rublev survived a first-round scare and did well to finish in straight sets against the talented Korda. The Russian is looking for his tenth quarterfinal appearance (0-9 record!). de Minaur is looking for his second. Their distinct grand slam ceilings are a reflection of the ceilings in their games; de Minaur lacks the power to dictate the fates of first-week matches, and I’ve been critical of Rublev’s backhand in numerous quarterfinal losses. However, I’ve noticed a change in Rublev’s backhand over the last six months. While his Masters 1000 breakthrough came in April at Monte Carlo, his backhand breakthrough happened in the last six months. He now sets up with a more pronounced bend in his left arm and a higher “power” position with the racquet head. The result is more space to accelerate the racquet for more speed. It’s no Zverev backhand, but it’s better, and any time a player strengthens a weakness it should be noted. Here is Rublev’s from one year ago against Rune at the 2023 Australian Open, juxtaposed with his 2024 Australian Open position last night against Korda. Late last year the Russian confirmed as much:

“This year I have improved my backhand. This is something that I feel very good about, that it has become better.”

— Andrey Rublev for Championat

Left is 2024 AO (vs. Korda). Right is 2023 AO (vs. Rune). Clawing back the technical inches that decide fates.

I was leaning Rublev before the tournament. His late-season indoor swing was fantastic and he won in Hong Kong recently. de Minaur is peaking and has the crowd behind him. It has the ingredients for a close and thrilling match. Rublev in 5.

Cazaux vs. Hurkacz

Arthur Cazaux is the surprise of the tournament so far. He won the Nouméa Challenger last week, and in this sport that kind of confidence can do wonders. He displayed a great level taking down Rune and dispatched Griekspoor in a rush, producing 14 break points without facing one himself. Hubert Hurkacz has underperformed at slams relative to his ATP resume. Last year the serve was outrageous for stretches and he shored up the forehand weakness in the second-half of the season. The result was a Masters 1000 title in Shanghai and a top-10 finish. Cazaux will have chances to dictate from the baseline and generate break points. I’m backing the fearless youngin’ to keep the upsets coming. Cazaux in 4.

Borges v Medvedev

I lied. Borges is the surprise of the tournament so far! Wins over Marterer — who finished very strongly on the Challenger tour in 2023 —, Davidovich Fokina, and the red-hot Dimitrov have landed the Portuguese player in the fourth round against Daniil Medvedev. Admittedly I haven’t watched a lick of his matches, but I’ve heard the forehand has been firing. Medvedev had a late-night scare against Ruusuvuori in the second round, finishing up around 4am, but got through in straights against FAA to aid his recovery efforts. The Russian had a strong 2023 without adding any grand slam silverware. He likes the conditions but he has been below his best in all three scraps. He’s given himself another chance to find his form, and should come through this match. Medvedev in 3.

Zverev vs. Norrie

Alexander Zverev was tested against Koepfer in the opening round, survived an onslaught from qualifier Lukáš Klein in the second round, and did well to win in straight sets against the young American Michelsen. Norrie has had it equally tough, navigating from 2-0 down against Zeppieri in the second round, and weathering a rejuvenated Ruud in round three. Both men are physical ironmen; implicit in their style is a degree of constancy, and we can expect a war of attrition once the serve is put in play. I think both have looked to add net game elements recently, and it will be interesting to track who does well to capitalise on that area and shorten the points. Zverev’s superior serve gives him the edge in this encounter, and the German’s backhand is world class against lefties. He leads Norrie 4-0 in their H2H (8-0 in sets). Zverev in 4.

Alcaraz vs. Kecmanović

Kecmanović saved match points in back-to-back matches against Struff and Paul. From here the task doesn’t get any easier. However, Alcaraz wasn’t sharp in his opening two rounds. Against Shang he looked better, although his younger opponent was physically empty. Kecmanović will need a huge physical effort to defeat the Spaniard. I’m not sure how much is left in the tank. Alcaraz in 3.

1. In the first round Bublik (31) lost to Nagal. Jarry (18) lost to Cobolli. Rune (8) lost to Cazaux in the second round.