I have been really impressed by Sinner's power against Djokovic, just crushing the ball from whatever position.
I remember a great podcast from Tennis Legend with Adrian Mannarino during 2020 (sadly in French). Manna was saying that he was thinking Djokovic would end his career with a pretty far better record than the other 2 (check).
And the other interesting point was about Sinner : still very rough and far from TOP 5, Mannarino was explaining that what set Sinner apart was his consistent ball striking, i.e : whatever the craftiness with the ball, he could always crush it and overwhelm you.
Sadly I won't be in the stands this time and I won't watch it since I am too partial. It is another 50/50 showdown. I am for Sinner, who remains I believe the underdog, yet, his improvements as a player are so continuous that I feel his everyday avatar is enough against everyone save a "lucky" Alcaraz.
I really wish Sinner to have the good luck on the decisive points, he is already the better player in general.
I don't think it's just about Alcaraz being lucky. He beat Sinner five times in a row, on different surfaces including hard courts, which requires far more than luck to be on his side. When Alcaraz is on, he has a higher ceiling than Sinner, especially on natural surfaces. At those times, he is the best player in the world, and that's a level no one else can get to. But Sinner has a much higher floor, and unless Alcaraz is ON or can turn it on when he needs it, Sinner will probably win. I saw someone describe it as Sinner usually playing a 95 out of 100, and sometimes a 100, rarely lower than 90--and Alcaraz jumping around more between 70, 80, 90, but also being able to play at a 110 that is simply untouchable, like that tiebreak in Roland Garros. It was interesting, speaking of Federer and Djokovic -- this person said that they thought Sinner would end up like Djokovic with more wins, and Alcaraz would end up like Federer, more iconic. Which I can see. With Alcaraz improving his serve so much and both of them constantly improving their game, we'll see if Alcaraz can start challenging Sinner at the US Open or Australia.
The 5 consecutive wins sequence was nonetheless skewed by variance.
According to Tennis Abstract, his 2 victories at RG happened with a negative dominance ratio for example and one can even remark that in fact, Alcaraz has a point-by-point dominance on hard and not on natural surface. I.e = the usual narrative isn't backed by statistics.
Overall, all the tighest matches landed in Alcaraz's favor and even if he is a tennis god, that result is still too one-sided, hence "luck".
As far as RG super tie-break, seen from the stands, Sinner dropped in intensity because his tank was definitely empty by that point and he indeed choked. His legs were mostly gone in the 5th set (he was very stiff in his gait and didn't move as well laterally) and reaching the super tie-break at the very last hour was his last stand. But in retrospect, it is clear that he didn't feel entitled to the title at all and was planning on not being able to really contend : he was at peace with not winning this year and that may explain his victory at Wimbledon and such a quick bounce back.
That is a stark contrast to the fallout that Zverev keeps on dealing with from his defeat at the AO.
A preliminary stats analysis confirms the indeniable edge of Sinner this time. One "novelty" : Sinner for the 1st time in 5 matches had a 1st serve % aligned with his average or even slightly better and it helped very much indeed.
Besides that, +11 pts won and a comprehensive domination on all stats : better behind serve and harvesting more points on Alcaraz 2nd serves.
Obviously not a walk in the park but a big enough edge that didn't allow any steal from Alcaraz this time.
Very very impressive, I am also noting that Sinner's 1st serve keeps accelerating, now clocking regurlarly over 210 Km/h (132 mph) : it is something fairly new as well.
His routine level is already incredible by its consistency (I want to draw a parrallele with Martin Fourcade in biathlon) while already executing a the highest level. And yet, he keeps on adding things to his game, like the "hand" crafty shots around the net in which he is not bad at all anymore !
Court speed influence makes the most sense between these two. But I do think the court is playing hard and bouncy this year and nowhere near as fast as Queens or Halle.
The betting odds have shifted slightly to Sinner. He is now the slight favorite with an implied probability of winning at 52.38%. Such a tough match to pick no doubt. Alcaraz has it all no doubt, and he can fall back somewhat to the best defensive skills in the game. No one can apply pressure on groundstrokes, totality of groundstrokes like Sinner. I sure would not bet on this thing.
Excellent article ! Always very complete and with some great insights ! I wrote a very similar one yesterday but yours is always interesting with technical breakdown as well as tactical ! I mainly focus tactical rather than technical considering you are much more qualified to talk abt it in detail ! Can’t wait for that final !
Read this last after the W match and after Sinner won--let's see what happens next. Alcaraz clearly knew he was being beaten at the cross over at the end of the third set and was addressing his box about it. Must be a distressing feeling to understand that you probably won't win. Not fun. I enjoy your analysis and watch Gill as well.
this match left me really curious as to what alcaraz can actually do to break up the baseline pressure coming from Sinner on quicker surfaces, because he was rushed constantly off both wings and wasn't able to get on the attack much. started redlining his 1st serve more because of the lost confidence in rallies, and in rallies saw him for much of the 3rd &4th start just trying to make balls and minimise risk while sinner was pummeling it. 2nd serve is definitely in need of work given what sinner & djokovic did to it today and at AO, but when alcaraz can't get to variety because he's being suffocated and the ball is bouncing low what does he do if he's always on defense? didn't think this match was nearly as close as RG as a result, sinner clearly looked like the better player
he needs to develop a 3/4 slice second serve that stays lower, and he needs to buy into slicing more in my opinion. In the end, I think grass will be his worst surface in this particular matchup, as the best tool he has to get out of the linear battle with Sinner -- height and spin -- is neutered more on grass than a lot of hard courts (e.g., Indian Wells, USO). Plus, he can be more aggressive with his movements and forehand on hard courts.
"Wimbledon has a way of dragging tennis back to more quaint origins — shuffling out of corners, slicing, serve-and-volley, all-white — but it’s still been dominated from the baseline for the last 24 years. It’s a fast court with the same dimensions as any other court.
Given that, I lean towards Jannik Sinner winning."
Can I ask, does this mean you think Sinner (all things being equal, no injuries, etc.) would be the favorite between them in any match at Wimbledon in the future? Or does that feel impossible to say because we don't know how Alcaraz's game will develop?
Great call. Not the crazy marathon we got at RO, but actually, I'm grateful this one took far less time (I didn't lose the rest of my day!).
It might look like a routine score at the end of the match, but it was those two unbelievable, Alcaraz-like winners that Sinner hit, I think both on a dead run, and both super sharp crosscourt (at least one of them!!) that really tuned the match to Sinner's favor. As always, the margins are SO THIN between these two. Bring on USO!!
Thank you for such great anlaysis. So fun to see the Fed/Nadal/Djoker court speed results summary. I loved Agassi commentary in French about making your opponent "keep redlining" and stick to capitalizing on your own advantages very well. Alcaraz did that in the French and he will have to be very consistent to win this one I believe.
Great recap! Wow we diverge in our views. I like this! I understand your linear/middle vs angular/curved trajectory matchup. On this dimension, Alcaraz's slice and bag of tricks gives him a way out. But I also think there is another crucial dimension that stands out to me on grass, height. Taller players are just more prone to being wrong footed on grass. Think about what the two falls have done to Sinner and Djokovic. We clearly see that they struggle more to keep their footing than Alcaraz. The same with Iga vs. Anasimova. The taller player loses mobility on grass. They cannot make up for it with bashing. It is the reason that Fed was the king of grass. Great mobility and a sharp toolbox.
I think that the footing will hurt Sinner much more than Alcaraz. Once it becomes an all-court game, Alcaraz will keep getting Sinner to slip here and there. Alcaraz can do well by hopping when he hits the ball. Sinner slips more and prefers to slide (he was a skier). But sliding on grass is dangerous.
I predict Alcaraz in 4. Just too good on grass with his mobility to beat him. We need another 180er to arise to challenge. 20 years ago that was Nadal to Fed. Sinner will fare much better on hard courts where his footing is surer.
Thanks for the review.
I have been really impressed by Sinner's power against Djokovic, just crushing the ball from whatever position.
I remember a great podcast from Tennis Legend with Adrian Mannarino during 2020 (sadly in French). Manna was saying that he was thinking Djokovic would end his career with a pretty far better record than the other 2 (check).
And the other interesting point was about Sinner : still very rough and far from TOP 5, Mannarino was explaining that what set Sinner apart was his consistent ball striking, i.e : whatever the craftiness with the ball, he could always crush it and overwhelm you.
Sadly I won't be in the stands this time and I won't watch it since I am too partial. It is another 50/50 showdown. I am for Sinner, who remains I believe the underdog, yet, his improvements as a player are so continuous that I feel his everyday avatar is enough against everyone save a "lucky" Alcaraz.
I really wish Sinner to have the good luck on the decisive points, he is already the better player in general.
I don't think it's just about Alcaraz being lucky. He beat Sinner five times in a row, on different surfaces including hard courts, which requires far more than luck to be on his side. When Alcaraz is on, he has a higher ceiling than Sinner, especially on natural surfaces. At those times, he is the best player in the world, and that's a level no one else can get to. But Sinner has a much higher floor, and unless Alcaraz is ON or can turn it on when he needs it, Sinner will probably win. I saw someone describe it as Sinner usually playing a 95 out of 100, and sometimes a 100, rarely lower than 90--and Alcaraz jumping around more between 70, 80, 90, but also being able to play at a 110 that is simply untouchable, like that tiebreak in Roland Garros. It was interesting, speaking of Federer and Djokovic -- this person said that they thought Sinner would end up like Djokovic with more wins, and Alcaraz would end up like Federer, more iconic. Which I can see. With Alcaraz improving his serve so much and both of them constantly improving their game, we'll see if Alcaraz can start challenging Sinner at the US Open or Australia.
The 5 consecutive wins sequence was nonetheless skewed by variance.
According to Tennis Abstract, his 2 victories at RG happened with a negative dominance ratio for example and one can even remark that in fact, Alcaraz has a point-by-point dominance on hard and not on natural surface. I.e = the usual narrative isn't backed by statistics.
Overall, all the tighest matches landed in Alcaraz's favor and even if he is a tennis god, that result is still too one-sided, hence "luck".
As far as RG super tie-break, seen from the stands, Sinner dropped in intensity because his tank was definitely empty by that point and he indeed choked. His legs were mostly gone in the 5th set (he was very stiff in his gait and didn't move as well laterally) and reaching the super tie-break at the very last hour was his last stand. But in retrospect, it is clear that he didn't feel entitled to the title at all and was planning on not being able to really contend : he was at peace with not winning this year and that may explain his victory at Wimbledon and such a quick bounce back.
That is a stark contrast to the fallout that Zverev keeps on dealing with from his defeat at the AO.
A preliminary stats analysis confirms the indeniable edge of Sinner this time. One "novelty" : Sinner for the 1st time in 5 matches had a 1st serve % aligned with his average or even slightly better and it helped very much indeed.
Besides that, +11 pts won and a comprehensive domination on all stats : better behind serve and harvesting more points on Alcaraz 2nd serves.
Obviously not a walk in the park but a big enough edge that didn't allow any steal from Alcaraz this time.
Very very impressive, I am also noting that Sinner's 1st serve keeps accelerating, now clocking regurlarly over 210 Km/h (132 mph) : it is something fairly new as well.
His routine level is already incredible by its consistency (I want to draw a parrallele with Martin Fourcade in biathlon) while already executing a the highest level. And yet, he keeps on adding things to his game, like the "hand" crafty shots around the net in which he is not bad at all anymore !
Court speed influence makes the most sense between these two. But I do think the court is playing hard and bouncy this year and nowhere near as fast as Queens or Halle.
The betting odds have shifted slightly to Sinner. He is now the slight favorite with an implied probability of winning at 52.38%. Such a tough match to pick no doubt. Alcaraz has it all no doubt, and he can fall back somewhat to the best defensive skills in the game. No one can apply pressure on groundstrokes, totality of groundstrokes like Sinner. I sure would not bet on this thing.
Yeah, the only thing I know is that it won't be straight sets either way
Excellent article ! Always very complete and with some great insights ! I wrote a very similar one yesterday but yours is always interesting with technical breakdown as well as tactical ! I mainly focus tactical rather than technical considering you are much more qualified to talk abt it in detail ! Can’t wait for that final !
Great commentary, and looking forward to one of the best head to head tennis matchups in my lifetime.
Read this last after the W match and after Sinner won--let's see what happens next. Alcaraz clearly knew he was being beaten at the cross over at the end of the third set and was addressing his box about it. Must be a distressing feeling to understand that you probably won't win. Not fun. I enjoy your analysis and watch Gill as well.
this match left me really curious as to what alcaraz can actually do to break up the baseline pressure coming from Sinner on quicker surfaces, because he was rushed constantly off both wings and wasn't able to get on the attack much. started redlining his 1st serve more because of the lost confidence in rallies, and in rallies saw him for much of the 3rd &4th start just trying to make balls and minimise risk while sinner was pummeling it. 2nd serve is definitely in need of work given what sinner & djokovic did to it today and at AO, but when alcaraz can't get to variety because he's being suffocated and the ball is bouncing low what does he do if he's always on defense? didn't think this match was nearly as close as RG as a result, sinner clearly looked like the better player
he needs to develop a 3/4 slice second serve that stays lower, and he needs to buy into slicing more in my opinion. In the end, I think grass will be his worst surface in this particular matchup, as the best tool he has to get out of the linear battle with Sinner -- height and spin -- is neutered more on grass than a lot of hard courts (e.g., Indian Wells, USO). Plus, he can be more aggressive with his movements and forehand on hard courts.
"Wimbledon has a way of dragging tennis back to more quaint origins — shuffling out of corners, slicing, serve-and-volley, all-white — but it’s still been dominated from the baseline for the last 24 years. It’s a fast court with the same dimensions as any other court.
Given that, I lean towards Jannik Sinner winning."
Can I ask, does this mean you think Sinner (all things being equal, no injuries, etc.) would be the favorite between them in any match at Wimbledon in the future? Or does that feel impossible to say because we don't know how Alcaraz's game will develop?
Impossible to say given what you said: we don't know how they both will develop and improve!
But I do think moving forward, in this particular matchup, grass will be Alcaraz's worst against Sinner.
Great call. Not the crazy marathon we got at RO, but actually, I'm grateful this one took far less time (I didn't lose the rest of my day!).
It might look like a routine score at the end of the match, but it was those two unbelievable, Alcaraz-like winners that Sinner hit, I think both on a dead run, and both super sharp crosscourt (at least one of them!!) that really tuned the match to Sinner's favor. As always, the margins are SO THIN between these two. Bring on USO!!
Thank you for such great anlaysis. So fun to see the Fed/Nadal/Djoker court speed results summary. I loved Agassi commentary in French about making your opponent "keep redlining" and stick to capitalizing on your own advantages very well. Alcaraz did that in the French and he will have to be very consistent to win this one I believe.
Great recap! Wow we diverge in our views. I like this! I understand your linear/middle vs angular/curved trajectory matchup. On this dimension, Alcaraz's slice and bag of tricks gives him a way out. But I also think there is another crucial dimension that stands out to me on grass, height. Taller players are just more prone to being wrong footed on grass. Think about what the two falls have done to Sinner and Djokovic. We clearly see that they struggle more to keep their footing than Alcaraz. The same with Iga vs. Anasimova. The taller player loses mobility on grass. They cannot make up for it with bashing. It is the reason that Fed was the king of grass. Great mobility and a sharp toolbox.
I think that the footing will hurt Sinner much more than Alcaraz. Once it becomes an all-court game, Alcaraz will keep getting Sinner to slip here and there. Alcaraz can do well by hopping when he hits the ball. Sinner slips more and prefers to slide (he was a skier). But sliding on grass is dangerous.
I predict Alcaraz in 4. Just too good on grass with his mobility to beat him. We need another 180er to arise to challenge. 20 years ago that was Nadal to Fed. Sinner will fare much better on hard courts where his footing is surer.
We diverged! I am excited to see what happens!
I got one prediction wrong! If Alcaraz wins, it won’t be in 4 sets.
Totally wrong! Another turn. Sinner headed to the net more than Alcaraz.
Great article as always