Great piece as always ! A little bit pessimistic maybe when it comes to facing Djokovic at slams, especially for Sinner who doesn’t have the same variation and forecourt feel as Alcaraz. Technical improvements ain’t easy and many next gen players tend to stale (for example Tsitsipas’s weaknesses are known for a while now, and I’m sure he knows them too but he still hasn’t been able to break them). So, even though both guys have plenty of time, I wonder how the two will fare in future slams, especially in comparison with Rune who seems to be better technically. I would be so sad if Carlos wasn’t able to beat Djokovic in a slam for example
Sinner has a great game I just think he needs to develop the ability to play defence for when the offence inevitably loses timing. All the parts are there for Alcaraz—defence, offence—but I think for him it's more just learning shot selection. He will win a lot of slams as it is I think. Rune has huge potential but needs to mature.
I don't think it's a fitness issue. They just take more risk and I think adjusting that withouth any change to fitness could find a better balance. E.g., earn more points from forced errors, less from winners, and miss less. Aka the Djokovic strategy
That joins my previous comment, but missing less is more a matter of technique than of mentality, right? Mentality and agression can make you miss the spot by millimeters, especially when under pressure (that is if you hit cleanly) but ugly errors will come if your technique is sub optimal. To hope and become Djokovic-esque in their approach, will Jannik and Carlos have to correct their weaknesses (laggy forehand for Jannik, high elbow/inverted start on the FH/ lack of drop / outside of hands on the BH for Carlos) or do you think they can sustain it by « calming themselves » and re-thinking their shot selection alone ?
Depends! Poor technique tends to break more when under pressure. I think at this stage of their careers the easier option is to tweak the mentality. Their technique is not 'bad' or 'wrong' -- I just have my theories/opinions as to what is optimal and I think that means CA needs a fuller takeback on the BH/and perhaps a lower elbow on the FH (at times), and Sinner needs less outside whip on the forehand. But it's impossible to tell if that is necessary to get more consistent. There are other factors of course.
I was wondering it Alcaraz’s outside setup on his backhand helps with disguising his drop shots. Same with the high elbow on the forehand side. If Alcaraz adjusted his forehand (lower elbow) and backhand (fuller takeback), would that reduce the effectiveness of his drop shot since he can’t disguise it as well?
Not sure it helps disguise a backhand drop shot; it's sold more with the overall body posture and initial take back, whether outside or not (Djokovic has a great backhand drop shot that is well disguised but his takeback is full).
Just wanted to say I absolutely love your regular analysis’ and I get so much value from them, thanks for all the effort you put into them!
Thanks Ryan. Glad you enjoy it!
Great piece as always ! A little bit pessimistic maybe when it comes to facing Djokovic at slams, especially for Sinner who doesn’t have the same variation and forecourt feel as Alcaraz. Technical improvements ain’t easy and many next gen players tend to stale (for example Tsitsipas’s weaknesses are known for a while now, and I’m sure he knows them too but he still hasn’t been able to break them). So, even though both guys have plenty of time, I wonder how the two will fare in future slams, especially in comparison with Rune who seems to be better technically. I would be so sad if Carlos wasn’t able to beat Djokovic in a slam for example
Sinner has a great game I just think he needs to develop the ability to play defence for when the offence inevitably loses timing. All the parts are there for Alcaraz—defence, offence—but I think for him it's more just learning shot selection. He will win a lot of slams as it is I think. Rune has huge potential but needs to mature.
Perhaps playing 5 sets against Djokovic is a different animal.
Most definitely.
The Athletic needs to hire you! You rock, Hugh.
Do you think it also has to do with fitness? Sinner and Alcaraz are rising at a time when fitness levels have a lot to do with power on the court.
If they maintain their peak level of fitness for longer streaks, do you think it can make up for their deficiencies in techniques?
I don't think it's a fitness issue. They just take more risk and I think adjusting that withouth any change to fitness could find a better balance. E.g., earn more points from forced errors, less from winners, and miss less. Aka the Djokovic strategy
That joins my previous comment, but missing less is more a matter of technique than of mentality, right? Mentality and agression can make you miss the spot by millimeters, especially when under pressure (that is if you hit cleanly) but ugly errors will come if your technique is sub optimal. To hope and become Djokovic-esque in their approach, will Jannik and Carlos have to correct their weaknesses (laggy forehand for Jannik, high elbow/inverted start on the FH/ lack of drop / outside of hands on the BH for Carlos) or do you think they can sustain it by « calming themselves » and re-thinking their shot selection alone ?
Depends! Poor technique tends to break more when under pressure. I think at this stage of their careers the easier option is to tweak the mentality. Their technique is not 'bad' or 'wrong' -- I just have my theories/opinions as to what is optimal and I think that means CA needs a fuller takeback on the BH/and perhaps a lower elbow on the FH (at times), and Sinner needs less outside whip on the forehand. But it's impossible to tell if that is necessary to get more consistent. There are other factors of course.
Love the analysis :)
I was wondering it Alcaraz’s outside setup on his backhand helps with disguising his drop shots. Same with the high elbow on the forehand side. If Alcaraz adjusted his forehand (lower elbow) and backhand (fuller takeback), would that reduce the effectiveness of his drop shot since he can’t disguise it as well?
Not sure it helps disguise a backhand drop shot; it's sold more with the overall body posture and initial take back, whether outside or not (Djokovic has a great backhand drop shot that is well disguised but his takeback is full).
Who is the other person in the top 100 you could see trying that volley?
Dan Evans