Thank you Hugh! I was eagerly awaiting your analysis of this unbelievably entertaining match. I find your work immensely insightful and am a huge fan of both your analysis and writing. You're my favourite tennis commentator, and I hope you continue.
I particularly appreciated your observation about Alcaraz's return-and-volley. I'd noticed his remarkable ability to turn offence to defence but hadn't realised that was one of the differences between his playstyle and Sinner's.
I wonder what you think of Matt Willis's comment on Alcaraz's 'deep volley' (https://x.com/mattracquet/status/1841458291848679519). Is this something new? Do you think it's a premeditated tactic, likely to be copied by others, or is it just an attempt at regular serve and volley improvised in the face of a deep and powerful return?
No I think it's Carlos just caught out of position, or expecting a short ball off his serve, and instead of backing up, he simply takes a deep volley. He's got such gifted hands that it is kind of unique to him at the moment, but I did tweet the other day something to the effect of this being an old-school play.
I only saw Alcaraz play one volley from deep, and that was the final tiebreak, where to me he looked surprised by how quickly the ball had come back and hadn’t recovered his position, but he’d decided that aggression was the only way to win the TB so he went for it.
Jannik wasn't as sharp through the entire tournament - now we know why. Carlos had his lull around USO, but he was re-energized by Laver Cup. These are still 20-ish young men with a lot going on in their career and lives. Outside the technical analysis which is covered thoroughly in this article, I think that we should all relax and sit back a bit, because there will be a lot of these in the years to come.
Part of me think that a 6-month ban might not be bad for Jannik. He needs to spend some time to make his game more complete, and also to take a mental break. I honestly don't understand how he could manage all the weight through US Open and win it all. Simply remarkable.
What a FH performance from Alcaraz! Really took it off Sinner's racquet with his agression off that wing and the fact he managed a very positive positive output despite the high risk it took is testament to that shot's quality. There were ups and down that Sinner - steady as he is - managed to exploit to make it close but I think Carlos was the better player throughout.
What's interesting is that Jannik is now 0-3 against Alcaraz in the best year of his career - whereas in previous years, when he was lesser overall, he proved to be tricky for Carlos (while struggling against the counterpunchers). He will obviously win many again (all 3 of them were close), but I think if he wants to get back the edge on that match-up, maybe he should go back to the "basics" of his game that he may have trended down to reach the level he's at today, which is just suffocating baseline hugging
Today I felt he was maybe too happy defending / play from a slightly deeper position, which might have allowed for the Alcaraz menu of tricks (that was also absent from their firsts encounters) to shine.
I felt like he previously took charge on that match-up, upped a gear on agression, and stuck Alcaraz into a very-fast style of play he is a bit worse in (because of his FH's initial forward tilt and slightly worse BH for trading cross court), and that also killed his variation.
Edit : maybe more body 2nd serves too to counter the crush and rush strategy, but I mean Alcaraz is so fast he may pull it off anyway
Yeah I think it's important to earmark how close all three matches were too. RG and here could have easily gone Jannik's way, so I don't think it's alarm bells yet in terms of changing things. Two things to note: Gill Gross pointed out that his serve percentage has been below average in all three of these matches against Carlos. I remember in Australia and for much of the first few months of the season how clutch Sinner's serving was; that was a large part of his initial success. Two: these matches all occured on slower courts (even Beijing is on the slower side of hardcourts I believe) so if the three matches had of been Miami/Wimbledon/Shanghai, we could have been having a very different conversation.
Sinner seeing break points in the first two sets and being up 3-0 in the final set points to Sinner’s temporary dip being the contributing factor for his loss. Not taking anything away from Alcaraz (he forced the dip) but saying it’s not alarm bells at all. Under Sinner’s icy demeanor I sometimes sense an uncertainty under pressure. While Sinner is great at keeping calm, I feel it’s not the same as a Berettini calm. So, I think it was more mental than tactical that contributed to those crucial dips.
i agree with your comment ! sinner might have been a little too defensive ! sometimes he went for it but too many times he relied on his defence which is insane but you cant defend against alcaraz...i mean alcaraz has all the shots in the book you cant cover all the court lmao
To be honest, it's harder to attack when you're not given enough time and regularity. Sinner uses just a bit of wind-up more than e.g. Djokovic, so Alcaraz's combination of power and aggressive time-stealing positioning could push him off the baseline and put him on the defense on some points.
Hugh my brain couldn’t handle watching those highlights. These 2 stars are taking tennis to a whole different level. I’ve been watching for 20 years so never watched in the 80s but have you seen this level of consistent aggressive play?
This was a Match of The Year candidate. All 3 of their matches this year has been in the Zone of Lottery Matches (Points won between 47.5%-52.5%). Alcaraz has found a way to win in all of them. Wonder at what point Sinner starts getting some sort of mental block.
Gil Gross made a point about Carlos' making a lot of aggressive errors on his bh. Too much sword and not enough shield. He's not wrong, but I think that's intentional on indoor hardcourt, part of the front-foot strategy you describe above. The opposite is true on natural surfaces, where Carlos clearly used variety of shape and pace on both sides to create attacking opportunities.
Yeah i mean, somedays Carlos is so good with his backhand attack as well, so it's one of those things where you live by it and die by it. He was just so good with the plus-one forehand all match that it counterweighted the errors on the bh.
3+ hrs of blistering and beautiful tennis. Sinner up 2 mini breaks in 3rd set tiebreak 3-0 and missed 4 straight first serves on the way to losing 7 straight points to Alcaraz winners.
Those attacking returns off high, 100 mph second serves are low percentage, often resulting in the returner either out of position with: an open court, too far away for effective volley, or with an unforced error.
Alcaraz' baseline to net speed is generational, even better than his lateral movement, so when he's on only he can do this repeatedly w success.
I'm not sure. I think it depends on who you're playing and who is doing the attacking. Players like Rune and Alcaraz, Tiafoe, Paul, Kyrgios off the top of my head have the ability to hit it very flat and take it early quite efficiently -- the speed of the incoming second-serve isn't really that much of an issue, if anything, these players use that speed of ball to simply redirect it with their short swings. I think the deuce version is a higher percentage play because you return the ball from the middle of the court, so you aren't as out of position, and you take it into your opponent's backhand. Would be interesting to see the breakdown of Alcaraz's 10 backhands and see the deuce/ad split.
yes, good point. Then the counter is serve short, wide, slice on deuce side second serve. Novak comes to mind. No one could return and volley off JJ Wolf's deuce sliders or Shelton/Draper ad hooking slices.
Generally Rune, Paul do not have the hands like Kyrgios, Tiafoe to hit advantageous service line volleys. One doesn't have the time on the return and charge to close far enough to net if hitting out on ball. Fed's chip and charge slowed the ball down to allow time for better volley position.
Thanks so much Hugh for the analysis !always very useful to analyse the match and understand strenght weaknesses of these guys ! Cant wait to see more of them battling out as it delivers some of the best lev el of tennis since big 3 encounters! There has been this debate lately with sinner alcaraz level of play being better than Big 3 confrontations! I dont think its better i think (like you mentioned) its different ! they play more aggresively! federer played very early and nadal was crushing the ball too as djokovic would always make you run with change of direction but here with sinner and alcaraz you really have something new! no neutral ball if not its gonna be crushed ! i noticed much more unforced errors sometimes when they play and shorter rallies for the majority of the match compare to big 3 cause big 3 used to play with a lot of margins! they were not missing at all ! you watched Djodal matches these guys had rallies every single points! with sinner alcaraz its crush and rush and its very impressive cause both are very athletic ! when you watch alcaraz specificaly this guy never waits in a rally....bomb forehands, dropshots, rush the net any time he can...except from federer not many were doing that
Thank you Hugh! I was eagerly awaiting your analysis of this unbelievably entertaining match. I find your work immensely insightful and am a huge fan of both your analysis and writing. You're my favourite tennis commentator, and I hope you continue.
I particularly appreciated your observation about Alcaraz's return-and-volley. I'd noticed his remarkable ability to turn offence to defence but hadn't realised that was one of the differences between his playstyle and Sinner's.
I wonder what you think of Matt Willis's comment on Alcaraz's 'deep volley' (https://x.com/mattracquet/status/1841458291848679519). Is this something new? Do you think it's a premeditated tactic, likely to be copied by others, or is it just an attempt at regular serve and volley improvised in the face of a deep and powerful return?
No I think it's Carlos just caught out of position, or expecting a short ball off his serve, and instead of backing up, he simply takes a deep volley. He's got such gifted hands that it is kind of unique to him at the moment, but I did tweet the other day something to the effect of this being an old-school play.
https://twitter.com/ThreadOrder/status/1840359200280441281
I only saw Alcaraz play one volley from deep, and that was the final tiebreak, where to me he looked surprised by how quickly the ball had come back and hadn’t recovered his position, but he’d decided that aggression was the only way to win the TB so he went for it.
Jannik wasn't as sharp through the entire tournament - now we know why. Carlos had his lull around USO, but he was re-energized by Laver Cup. These are still 20-ish young men with a lot going on in their career and lives. Outside the technical analysis which is covered thoroughly in this article, I think that we should all relax and sit back a bit, because there will be a lot of these in the years to come.
Part of me think that a 6-month ban might not be bad for Jannik. He needs to spend some time to make his game more complete, and also to take a mental break. I honestly don't understand how he could manage all the weight through US Open and win it all. Simply remarkable.
What a FH performance from Alcaraz! Really took it off Sinner's racquet with his agression off that wing and the fact he managed a very positive positive output despite the high risk it took is testament to that shot's quality. There were ups and down that Sinner - steady as he is - managed to exploit to make it close but I think Carlos was the better player throughout.
What's interesting is that Jannik is now 0-3 against Alcaraz in the best year of his career - whereas in previous years, when he was lesser overall, he proved to be tricky for Carlos (while struggling against the counterpunchers). He will obviously win many again (all 3 of them were close), but I think if he wants to get back the edge on that match-up, maybe he should go back to the "basics" of his game that he may have trended down to reach the level he's at today, which is just suffocating baseline hugging
Today I felt he was maybe too happy defending / play from a slightly deeper position, which might have allowed for the Alcaraz menu of tricks (that was also absent from their firsts encounters) to shine.
I felt like he previously took charge on that match-up, upped a gear on agression, and stuck Alcaraz into a very-fast style of play he is a bit worse in (because of his FH's initial forward tilt and slightly worse BH for trading cross court), and that also killed his variation.
Edit : maybe more body 2nd serves too to counter the crush and rush strategy, but I mean Alcaraz is so fast he may pull it off anyway
Yeah I think it's important to earmark how close all three matches were too. RG and here could have easily gone Jannik's way, so I don't think it's alarm bells yet in terms of changing things. Two things to note: Gill Gross pointed out that his serve percentage has been below average in all three of these matches against Carlos. I remember in Australia and for much of the first few months of the season how clutch Sinner's serving was; that was a large part of his initial success. Two: these matches all occured on slower courts (even Beijing is on the slower side of hardcourts I believe) so if the three matches had of been Miami/Wimbledon/Shanghai, we could have been having a very different conversation.
Sinner seeing break points in the first two sets and being up 3-0 in the final set points to Sinner’s temporary dip being the contributing factor for his loss. Not taking anything away from Alcaraz (he forced the dip) but saying it’s not alarm bells at all. Under Sinner’s icy demeanor I sometimes sense an uncertainty under pressure. While Sinner is great at keeping calm, I feel it’s not the same as a Berettini calm. So, I think it was more mental than tactical that contributed to those crucial dips.
i agree with your comment ! sinner might have been a little too defensive ! sometimes he went for it but too many times he relied on his defence which is insane but you cant defend against alcaraz...i mean alcaraz has all the shots in the book you cant cover all the court lmao
To be honest, it's harder to attack when you're not given enough time and regularity. Sinner uses just a bit of wind-up more than e.g. Djokovic, so Alcaraz's combination of power and aggressive time-stealing positioning could push him off the baseline and put him on the defense on some points.
Hugh my brain couldn’t handle watching those highlights. These 2 stars are taking tennis to a whole different level. I’ve been watching for 20 years so never watched in the 80s but have you seen this level of consistent aggressive play?
Check this out!
https://youtu.be/Pw5l3WnsbQE?si=rAcFeEhvuraMy88G
There are some Federer - Agassi matches that come across as hyper aggressive. I’ll link som highlights
This was a Match of The Year candidate. All 3 of their matches this year has been in the Zone of Lottery Matches (Points won between 47.5%-52.5%). Alcaraz has found a way to win in all of them. Wonder at what point Sinner starts getting some sort of mental block.
Gil Gross made a point about Carlos' making a lot of aggressive errors on his bh. Too much sword and not enough shield. He's not wrong, but I think that's intentional on indoor hardcourt, part of the front-foot strategy you describe above. The opposite is true on natural surfaces, where Carlos clearly used variety of shape and pace on both sides to create attacking opportunities.
Yeah i mean, somedays Carlos is so good with his backhand attack as well, so it's one of those things where you live by it and die by it. He was just so good with the plus-one forehand all match that it counterweighted the errors on the bh.
3+ hrs of blistering and beautiful tennis. Sinner up 2 mini breaks in 3rd set tiebreak 3-0 and missed 4 straight first serves on the way to losing 7 straight points to Alcaraz winners.
Those attacking returns off high, 100 mph second serves are low percentage, often resulting in the returner either out of position with: an open court, too far away for effective volley, or with an unforced error.
Alcaraz' baseline to net speed is generational, even better than his lateral movement, so when he's on only he can do this repeatedly w success.
Is that fair to say?
I'm not sure. I think it depends on who you're playing and who is doing the attacking. Players like Rune and Alcaraz, Tiafoe, Paul, Kyrgios off the top of my head have the ability to hit it very flat and take it early quite efficiently -- the speed of the incoming second-serve isn't really that much of an issue, if anything, these players use that speed of ball to simply redirect it with their short swings. I think the deuce version is a higher percentage play because you return the ball from the middle of the court, so you aren't as out of position, and you take it into your opponent's backhand. Would be interesting to see the breakdown of Alcaraz's 10 backhands and see the deuce/ad split.
yes, good point. Then the counter is serve short, wide, slice on deuce side second serve. Novak comes to mind. No one could return and volley off JJ Wolf's deuce sliders or Shelton/Draper ad hooking slices.
Generally Rune, Paul do not have the hands like Kyrgios, Tiafoe to hit advantageous service line volleys. One doesn't have the time on the return and charge to close far enough to net if hitting out on ball. Fed's chip and charge slowed the ball down to allow time for better volley position.
Thanks so much Hugh for the analysis !always very useful to analyse the match and understand strenght weaknesses of these guys ! Cant wait to see more of them battling out as it delivers some of the best lev el of tennis since big 3 encounters! There has been this debate lately with sinner alcaraz level of play being better than Big 3 confrontations! I dont think its better i think (like you mentioned) its different ! they play more aggresively! federer played very early and nadal was crushing the ball too as djokovic would always make you run with change of direction but here with sinner and alcaraz you really have something new! no neutral ball if not its gonna be crushed ! i noticed much more unforced errors sometimes when they play and shorter rallies for the majority of the match compare to big 3 cause big 3 used to play with a lot of margins! they were not missing at all ! you watched Djodal matches these guys had rallies every single points! with sinner alcaraz its crush and rush and its very impressive cause both are very athletic ! when you watch alcaraz specificaly this guy never waits in a rally....bomb forehands, dropshots, rush the net any time he can...except from federer not many were doing that