Heard a "psoas" comment from Alcaraz in the MTO request, we'll see today.
Really tight first set from Rune, he held the line and attacked with margin, clarity and decision (if there were mistakes on his side, they were precisely missing the opportunities to attack and pressure). I think Alcaraz has been so hot on the forehand recently that he got greedy with the forehand inversions and the risk level selection. On clay, he can basically run through 90% of the field at that intensity, but there's a few opponents that you just can't overwhelm with power - Djokovic (RG 2023, Oly 2024) and Rune this year being probably the most painful examples. It's possible that an intensity dip from Rune could have let Carlitos come ahead in the late second set, but as we just saw, very high intensity play with lots of sprints and run-arounds also involves physical risk on your side! Compared to something like early Nadal (who also played with massive intensity), the good news for him is that he already has all the moves he needs* to play variety and smart offense; the bad news is that he's sometimes missing the patience and mental discipline (stuff that Rafa was amazing at from the beginning). I felt he was starting to make the necessary tactical shift in the second set, but we won't see that tale finished. We'll see what happens if he plays Madrid, because all those 110%-power heavy forehands are not going to land inside the lines without adjustments here at Meseta Central altitudes.
* Maybe the feet-deep ball is the only lagging area, one which precisely Rune excels at, as I've argued here in the comments before. Clean, linear, flat-ish strokes do a great job on the rise.
Absolutely loved this read—and fully agree: Rune didn’t miss a beat. It was a supremely confident display, with more tactical adaptability than we’re used to seeing from him. And that moment—Alcaraz serving at 4–5 as the migratory birds rattle past, and he smiles—it felt like foreshadowing. Rune read the omen.
I have been a fan of Rune for several years, always impressed by his speed on the court and his raw tennis skills, and have watched with some sadness as he struggled with his mental game and a string of coaches. In the last two years he has not been able to match his peak performance results from November of 2022 (at age 19) where he won the Paris Masters ATP 1000 event, beating a number of the top players along the way.
But as you say, this is a new Rune we saw play last week. Gone were the persistent signs of a petulant youth: complaining to the chair umpire; becoming annoyed at his mother and coaches; scowling and throwing mini fits. This was a determined Rune who seemed to keep composure throughout, and who played with incredible poise to hold his serve in a couple of key games with Alcaraz holding break points. We will hopefully see more of this composure in upcoming tournaments but this still remains to be seen.
I was particularly impressed this week by Rune’s shot selections, all backed by his amazingly powerful and consistent backhand crosscourt drives. His semifinal match against Khachanov on Saturday was a destruction, with Rune never facing a single break point. Rune showed he was quick enough to get to nearly every ball, and was moving the ball around the court effectively, mixing crosscourt forehands with down the line shots, crushing the short balls and hitting devastating drop shots.
Let’s all hope that Rune is able to extend this court discipline and composure for many years to come !
Counterpunching throughout the match, at the same time I thought HR also displayed great aggressive plays when the time requires (which reminds me of ND).
At 5-5 30-0 (HR leading), CA used the deep return position for the first time in the match (he used it much more last week at Monte Carlo) and won 2 long rally points to make it 30-30. In a tight set (especially at 4-4 or 5-5) I always feel that winning the sensitive 30-30 point can really sway confidence (and outcomes).
HR response: a serve and volley winner and a serve +1 forehand crosscourt with depth and pace. He really took both with conviction and nip a potential trouble (losing break at 5-5) in the bud!
Later in the tiebreak, at 2-3 (CA serving), HR needs a minibreak back and he fired a backhand down the line (iirc the first time in the match as well) to set up the short ball for an easier forehand.
I think being aggressive when the moment requires, at the right time, can also prove to be a sign of maturity in shot selection? But let's wait & see more from HR.
Echo all that people have said - great post. Recall being very impressed by Rune in 2023 when he came back from van de Zandschulp having mpts on serve at 5-2 40-15 in the final in Bavaria. And then watching him go to pieces against Rublev in the Monte Carlo final a couple of weeks later after he missed a smash, and thinking “you’ve got the potential but you need the head too”.
A great analysis, as always, and one I had been waiting for more than any previous one maybe.
One little add-on: when mentioning the perks of the compact FH setup, I think another GIF showing just how good he can absorb pace (and even redirect it deep DTL with it), thus giving him the counterpunching abilities you mentioned afterwards, would have made that section perfect.
Because to me, that absorbing quality on the FH side was the key point of this match. I felt like Rune would have to thread a very fine positioning needle between holding the line - which could backfire against Alcaraz's quality like it did against Draper at IW, the swing being too compact again - and dropping further back, where the difference in FH generation and therefore quality would result in him getting powered past, if not downright dropshotted. But he did thread that needle, which proved instrumental to him going toe to toe with what I felt was a normal version of Alcaraz before the injury came up, by using this asset as well as all his others we felt more comfortable with going into this final.
Not saying this set was necessarly the norm (still think Alcaraz has a slight edge), but out of the myriads of doubts that emerged from the last circa 2 years of Holger's career, one that remained consistent is that whatever Rune's problems with generating consistent FH power in some situations were, one guy that could make him pay for it was Alcaraz. But he found a way - not an easy one, but one that shows that what I commented on your first article regarding Rune's FH may be true : he may be allowed that one technical inefficiency (like Alcaraz's BH and running FH for example, or Sinner's FH too in a way) and still climb to the very top if he puts all the rest together.
Long way to go for that as you said, and clay helps his game as well as FH (more time = better quality production when trading, as well as a higher bounce which I think makes it more dangerous when he actually tries to produce RPMs) but to me the huge takeaway of this week is that the biggest technical question mark regarding him has sort of been lifted.
Heard a "psoas" comment from Alcaraz in the MTO request, we'll see today.
Really tight first set from Rune, he held the line and attacked with margin, clarity and decision (if there were mistakes on his side, they were precisely missing the opportunities to attack and pressure). I think Alcaraz has been so hot on the forehand recently that he got greedy with the forehand inversions and the risk level selection. On clay, he can basically run through 90% of the field at that intensity, but there's a few opponents that you just can't overwhelm with power - Djokovic (RG 2023, Oly 2024) and Rune this year being probably the most painful examples. It's possible that an intensity dip from Rune could have let Carlitos come ahead in the late second set, but as we just saw, very high intensity play with lots of sprints and run-arounds also involves physical risk on your side! Compared to something like early Nadal (who also played with massive intensity), the good news for him is that he already has all the moves he needs* to play variety and smart offense; the bad news is that he's sometimes missing the patience and mental discipline (stuff that Rafa was amazing at from the beginning). I felt he was starting to make the necessary tactical shift in the second set, but we won't see that tale finished. We'll see what happens if he plays Madrid, because all those 110%-power heavy forehands are not going to land inside the lines without adjustments here at Meseta Central altitudes.
* Maybe the feet-deep ball is the only lagging area, one which precisely Rune excels at, as I've argued here in the comments before. Clean, linear, flat-ish strokes do a great job on the rise.
Absolutely loved this read—and fully agree: Rune didn’t miss a beat. It was a supremely confident display, with more tactical adaptability than we’re used to seeing from him. And that moment—Alcaraz serving at 4–5 as the migratory birds rattle past, and he smiles—it felt like foreshadowing. Rune read the omen.
I thought I would share this link to give a context on how long these two, born six days apart, have known each other in the tennis world:
https://www.olympics.com/en/news/tennis-friends-carlos-alcaraz-holger-rune-to-face-each-other-at-2025-barcelona-open
I have been a fan of Rune for several years, always impressed by his speed on the court and his raw tennis skills, and have watched with some sadness as he struggled with his mental game and a string of coaches. In the last two years he has not been able to match his peak performance results from November of 2022 (at age 19) where he won the Paris Masters ATP 1000 event, beating a number of the top players along the way.
But as you say, this is a new Rune we saw play last week. Gone were the persistent signs of a petulant youth: complaining to the chair umpire; becoming annoyed at his mother and coaches; scowling and throwing mini fits. This was a determined Rune who seemed to keep composure throughout, and who played with incredible poise to hold his serve in a couple of key games with Alcaraz holding break points. We will hopefully see more of this composure in upcoming tournaments but this still remains to be seen.
I was particularly impressed this week by Rune’s shot selections, all backed by his amazingly powerful and consistent backhand crosscourt drives. His semifinal match against Khachanov on Saturday was a destruction, with Rune never facing a single break point. Rune showed he was quick enough to get to nearly every ball, and was moving the ball around the court effectively, mixing crosscourt forehands with down the line shots, crushing the short balls and hitting devastating drop shots.
Let’s all hope that Rune is able to extend this court discipline and composure for many years to come !
Thanks for another great commentary. Always a pleasure to read!
Counterpunching throughout the match, at the same time I thought HR also displayed great aggressive plays when the time requires (which reminds me of ND).
At 5-5 30-0 (HR leading), CA used the deep return position for the first time in the match (he used it much more last week at Monte Carlo) and won 2 long rally points to make it 30-30. In a tight set (especially at 4-4 or 5-5) I always feel that winning the sensitive 30-30 point can really sway confidence (and outcomes).
HR response: a serve and volley winner and a serve +1 forehand crosscourt with depth and pace. He really took both with conviction and nip a potential trouble (losing break at 5-5) in the bud!
Later in the tiebreak, at 2-3 (CA serving), HR needs a minibreak back and he fired a backhand down the line (iirc the first time in the match as well) to set up the short ball for an easier forehand.
I think being aggressive when the moment requires, at the right time, can also prove to be a sign of maturity in shot selection? But let's wait & see more from HR.
Echo all that people have said - great post. Recall being very impressed by Rune in 2023 when he came back from van de Zandschulp having mpts on serve at 5-2 40-15 in the final in Bavaria. And then watching him go to pieces against Rublev in the Monte Carlo final a couple of weeks later after he missed a smash, and thinking “you’ve got the potential but you need the head too”.
Seems like he’s finally figured it out. Great!
Hi Hugh,
A great analysis, as always, and one I had been waiting for more than any previous one maybe.
One little add-on: when mentioning the perks of the compact FH setup, I think another GIF showing just how good he can absorb pace (and even redirect it deep DTL with it), thus giving him the counterpunching abilities you mentioned afterwards, would have made that section perfect.
Because to me, that absorbing quality on the FH side was the key point of this match. I felt like Rune would have to thread a very fine positioning needle between holding the line - which could backfire against Alcaraz's quality like it did against Draper at IW, the swing being too compact again - and dropping further back, where the difference in FH generation and therefore quality would result in him getting powered past, if not downright dropshotted. But he did thread that needle, which proved instrumental to him going toe to toe with what I felt was a normal version of Alcaraz before the injury came up, by using this asset as well as all his others we felt more comfortable with going into this final.
Not saying this set was necessarly the norm (still think Alcaraz has a slight edge), but out of the myriads of doubts that emerged from the last circa 2 years of Holger's career, one that remained consistent is that whatever Rune's problems with generating consistent FH power in some situations were, one guy that could make him pay for it was Alcaraz. But he found a way - not an easy one, but one that shows that what I commented on your first article regarding Rune's FH may be true : he may be allowed that one technical inefficiency (like Alcaraz's BH and running FH for example, or Sinner's FH too in a way) and still climb to the very top if he puts all the rest together.
Long way to go for that as you said, and clay helps his game as well as FH (more time = better quality production when trading, as well as a higher bounce which I think makes it more dangerous when he actually tries to produce RPMs) but to me the huge takeaway of this week is that the biggest technical question mark regarding him has sort of been lifted.