This is the best writing on tennis I've seen in some time. Too often, the big writers/commentators/podcasters eschew technical analysis (bc they can't do it) in favor of narrative. That's all find and good, but this kind of smart tennis writing is really rewarding for fans who have a grasp on the game.
Suggestion for a future article: The gap between Alcaraz and the young field feels massive now. I'd love to see some analysis on how Sinner/Tsitsipas/Zverev/Rune etc. lack adaptability. So much talent and athleticism but seemingly so little intelligence/nuance to their games.
I think Rune has the most variety of the group and not coincidentally the highest ceiling. Interested to see how Alcaraz handles Sinner who has beaten him and played him really close. I suspect that's a thing of the past unless Sinner can develop a better game at the net.
Sinner has to improve his variety and forward/net game. Alcaraz, on the other hand, has to recognize that as tempting as it is to trade bombs with Sinner it's exactly how Sinner wants to play. Playing Djokovic on grass and NOT GIVING him too much pace to redirect may be the way to go against Sinner too.
Sinner have the game, but they dont have the mental part. Played a really good match againts Nole, but on important points, he lost all of them, ALL. But, to be fair, we have to look to his improvement too. Much Better on the net, slicing, serve, etc. Carlos is a man, Sinner not yet, still a boy. Mental and physicall.
I wouldn't put Rune in the same category as these guys. Far more complete baseline game with no technical flaws (actually mirrors big 3) and has great variety. Just needs time to get the right playstile, he is the one who is gonna put Alcaraz in trouble I believe
I don't think he has technical flaws, just can't seem to find the right mode or gear at the right time. Sometimes he attacks and sometimes he plays defense. When his body gives out, he capitulates for a while until he starts to go for broke. Then he starts hitting winners and gets back into matches. Problem is he doesn't seem to be in control of that variety.
He's also pretty conservative on his forehand, almost overly brushing it, when he has the power to put more balls away.
I completely agree with this take, but I also think it is growing pains. Carlos is an anomaly of tactical maturity, and Holger still needs to find the right game style and plan to make the best of his potential
Definitely agree with that forehand passivity, is is really weird why he wasn’t more aggressive on attackable shots, especially since he was hitting bombs on the clay.
The consistency bump on Alcaraz's groundstrokes was essential, especially in the irregular conditions of the final. Great analysis and focus on the forehand adaptations to improve ball control on the run instead of out-blasting Djokovic (as we saw in the RG duel, you're absolutely not going to have a fun time trying to overpower Novak with raw strength). I could feel not just the technical changes and the talent to adapt to the conditions, but also the grit that it takes to keep executing these controlling 60%-70% power shots when you know that you're likely receiving another corner / court-side pressure shot when the ball comes back. After a few seconds in that situation, the average player can feel the temptation of a desperate low-percentage bailout shot emerging in their mind from the pressure and exertion.
I think the backhand side also was better than usual in analogous fashion. He did not overhit that much and even when he was putting more power in them it was in the form of extra linear speed/acceleration/pushing with the whole chain instead of "rotational whippyness" at the end, producing safe high-margin aggression instead of blazing balls smoking the grass somewhere near the corner of the court. Again, great preparation and execution since control, consistency and direction are dangerous enough on their own in grass (as proved by the regular Djokovic sweep after the Fed era).
At a few critical moments in the match, we could also see the champion factor, the seventh gear, the ability to execute the impossible when no other option is left. And the heroics adapted as well; they were there not just in the form of side-to-side hopeless chasing sprints (though there a few of those as well), but also as a set-winning outside-in stretched backhand return or as a flying drop volley when serving for the win. That's stuff from myths and legends.
Very much agreed. It's a losing proposition to repeatedly get into long rallies with Novak BUT you have to show him you are willing/capable to do it as needed to get the right ball to attack. Otherwise he'll be plenty happy to coax you into extended rallies knowing that you'll bail before he does via a low percentage prayer that will more often than not end in an error.
Fantastic write up. I especially love the distinction you made on movement adjustment by carlos between grass and clay. I’m privy to the theme of “trade-offs” for swing mechanics but the footwork adjustments fit that theme as well. I had never even considered that until today and I love that I always learn something from your articles.
Hugh, incredible write up as always. I really look forward to your analysis after a huge match like this. It's an immediate read as soon as it hits the inbox. I humbly request a specific point analysis of the Alcaraz drop shot at 4-4 in the second set tiebreak. As you point out to that point the drop shot wasn't working too well and if he misses it it's probably match with Djokovic serving for a 2-0 lead up 5-4 in the tiebreak. I feel like it perfectly encapsulates the player and the match. Just an incredible (and a touch insane) shot there IMHO.
This was actually a really good time to play it, IMO. One thing that Alcaraz does very well on the drop shot is play it in the opposite direction of a player's recovery/split step. If you rewatch that point note how Alcaraz ticks all three boxes for a succesful drop shot:
1) Plays it inside the baseline
2) His opponent is behind the baseline
3) His opponent's momentum is heading right of screen, so Alcaraz plays it left (to the BH)
Great points! It just amazes me he had the nerve to go for it there with the match on the line and his lack of success on it to that point. It catches the top of the tape and we are talking about a Novak straight sets win in all likelihood. I know he was inside the BL but just barely, middle of the court, and he put it over the higher side of the net from pretty far away because of the angle he was going for even though that was the best play bc of where Novak was as you point out.
The belief and nerves to execute a shot like that in that moment is what makes him so incredible to watch.
I would say the fact that he had the guts to play it stems from the fact his dropshot is so good. Not trying to analyze it technically but it’s actually I think a pretty high percentage shot for him to pull off. It’s gutsy but mathematically it was maybe the right move
Pre-match, I tweeted that one of the keys for Djokovic to win would be to lock Alcaraz in BH jail and slowly push him back/wide in trademark fashion. Suffice to say, Carlos's BH held up incredibly well under such pressure. Eventually it was enough.
You mentioned that this match wasn't that great in terms of quality, and it got me really curious. I'd love it if you could suggest some matches off the top of your head that you consider top-quality, just to check them out and be blown away. Anyway, thanks for such a lovely article as always!
2009 AO - semi-final between Nadal and Verdasco (final has some epic peaks but the fifth set is a bit of a let down)
2012 AO QF - Nadal v Berdych, and the final of course, Nadal v Djokovic
Some of their early RG finals (2006 and 2007) between Federer and Nadal have amazing points. Their movement and power in their youth was something else.
Great as always, loved the clay-grass FH footwork comparison. From a general standpoint, I loved watching Carlos adapt throughout the 2nd & 3rd sets. I gave as much credit in my own write-up to how willing he was to eventually accept and manage the pressure going into his FH in a way you rarely see from him to this extent, particularly against players who know how to restrict his overall game.
I think Carlos' constant adjustments did so much to take the wind out of Novak's sails. He was redirecting against mid-length trades (even ones with pace) supremely. He soaked up FH pressure knowing he could back himself defensively against any resulting weaker balls. He eventually looped his FH dtl also, which pinned the deuce court open and reduced Novak's power into and willingness to go to that pressure-able wing because his own short-angle shot was too much for Novak to retrieve.
There was so much of that on the BH side, as well, which prevented him from being coaxed into the same easily-drawn errors as in the 1st set. Not just refusing to miss but finding ways to draw errors and limit the pressure into his FH by centralising mid-BH trade (heavy or sliced) to either get inside-in (more top-spin) balls into his FH (instead of the harder, more precise BH redirects), or to make Novak continuously pull up on his BH across. And, if/when his resulting trade did come up short, it was feeding that dtl laser Carlos was doing serious damage with from a higher-margin position (again, too much for even Novak's FH to absorb).
Great points, Peter. He's actually an incredibly smart player who adjusts and it's normal at 20 to overheat the game I think. Scary to think what he will be like in 2, 3, 4 years. I'll check out your article today for sure
Absolutely, his planned strategies and especially his instinctively-guided decisions within matches do so much to illustrate his intelligence, but, as you say about overheating, that is/was something he was understandably prone to on the few occasions where he was being effectively tied down. So to pull off that kind of turn-around off here, a month after how it went down in Paris, is incredible and already pretty scary. (And thanks, I'd love to know what you think :).)
Well said, very good take on the match Hugh. It is certainly good to see someone stand up to the Big 3. They seem to have already destroyed 2 generation of players, Alcaraz well done. And JCF the perfect coach/mentor. JCF deserves a lot of credit
Yes great point. I was speaking with another coach and he highlighted how integral JCF has been and what a great relationship and team they seem to have. Respect, work ethic, etc.
One thing I think Alcaraz did (might be completely imagining this) is relax a lot more during Djokovic's serve routine. Djokovic's routine is long, but also he varies the number of bounces. I think a lot of players are intensely concentrating on Djokovic the whole way through his routine, and by the time he serves they have already been concentrating for ~20 seconds. Alcaraz was chilling right up to near the ball toss which I think helps. This is all pure vibes analysis though unlike what Hugh produces.
Great Stuff!!! Your article reinforces a point I have been thinking about a lot lately. The problem with modern tennis is that it got rid of all the natural materials. People play on synthetic surfaces, with synthetic rackets and synthetic strings. They are used to hitting the perfect ball over and over again. Grass and clay make you adapt. The old wood rackets made you adapt. The gut strings were finicky. Uncle Toni had Rafa practice on courts with holes. Nole practiced in a swimming pool. Fed probably played with wood as a kid.
Alcaraz is a throwback like all great champions. You have to be able to play the whole court and improvise. Those who tried to conquer the big three did not. Thiem, Tsitsipas, Zverevev, and Shapo to some extent all had major deficiencies. Their game was not well rounded. How is it that Tsitispas and Shapo don't have a great slice? Alcaraz plays like a 20 year old used to play not like they play today.
Exceptional , in-depth analysis !! Glad I found your content . The generic, on-the-surface match reviews have gotten me bored and frustrated . You are the best !! Thanks
The most impressive for me was the BH side from Carlos. Novak came with a pretty clear strategy for me: Attack Carlitos on the BH side. And surprisingly the ball came back with some quality that he didnt expect. World class Slices, BH DTL, BH CC, with great angles. The two most important points in the match for me, the 30-40 0-1 on fifth, and the 1-1 30-40 on fifth too, show that. Evolve - Adapt - COJONES!
To NOVAK ATTACKS CARLOS FH ON THE RUN, FIRST HE NEEDS TO OPEN THAT SIDE, GOING TO THE BH. THE QUALITY AND QUANTITY OF VARIATION THAT CAME FROM CARLOS IN THAT SIDE WAS VERY GREAT, WHICH DIDN'T LEAVE NOVAK IN A CLEAR ATTACKING SITUATION. MANY TIMES WITH A GOOD SLICE, WITH A GOOD DEPTH, AND WITH BH DTL.
This is the best writing on tennis I've seen in some time. Too often, the big writers/commentators/podcasters eschew technical analysis (bc they can't do it) in favor of narrative. That's all find and good, but this kind of smart tennis writing is really rewarding for fans who have a grasp on the game.
Suggestion for a future article: The gap between Alcaraz and the young field feels massive now. I'd love to see some analysis on how Sinner/Tsitsipas/Zverev/Rune etc. lack adaptability. So much talent and athleticism but seemingly so little intelligence/nuance to their games.
Thanks for the kind words, Peter!
I think Rune has the most variety of the group and not coincidentally the highest ceiling. Interested to see how Alcaraz handles Sinner who has beaten him and played him really close. I suspect that's a thing of the past unless Sinner can develop a better game at the net.
Sinner has to improve his variety and forward/net game. Alcaraz, on the other hand, has to recognize that as tempting as it is to trade bombs with Sinner it's exactly how Sinner wants to play. Playing Djokovic on grass and NOT GIVING him too much pace to redirect may be the way to go against Sinner too.
Sinner have the game, but they dont have the mental part. Played a really good match againts Nole, but on important points, he lost all of them, ALL. But, to be fair, we have to look to his improvement too. Much Better on the net, slicing, serve, etc. Carlos is a man, Sinner not yet, still a boy. Mental and physicall.
I wouldn't put Rune in the same category as these guys. Far more complete baseline game with no technical flaws (actually mirrors big 3) and has great variety. Just needs time to get the right playstile, he is the one who is gonna put Alcaraz in trouble I believe
I don't think he has technical flaws, just can't seem to find the right mode or gear at the right time. Sometimes he attacks and sometimes he plays defense. When his body gives out, he capitulates for a while until he starts to go for broke. Then he starts hitting winners and gets back into matches. Problem is he doesn't seem to be in control of that variety.
He's also pretty conservative on his forehand, almost overly brushing it, when he has the power to put more balls away.
I completely agree with this take, but I also think it is growing pains. Carlos is an anomaly of tactical maturity, and Holger still needs to find the right game style and plan to make the best of his potential
Hopefully he keeps coach Lars in the box then.
Definitely agree with that forehand passivity, is is really weird why he wasn’t more aggressive on attackable shots, especially since he was hitting bombs on the clay.
The consistency bump on Alcaraz's groundstrokes was essential, especially in the irregular conditions of the final. Great analysis and focus on the forehand adaptations to improve ball control on the run instead of out-blasting Djokovic (as we saw in the RG duel, you're absolutely not going to have a fun time trying to overpower Novak with raw strength). I could feel not just the technical changes and the talent to adapt to the conditions, but also the grit that it takes to keep executing these controlling 60%-70% power shots when you know that you're likely receiving another corner / court-side pressure shot when the ball comes back. After a few seconds in that situation, the average player can feel the temptation of a desperate low-percentage bailout shot emerging in their mind from the pressure and exertion.
I think the backhand side also was better than usual in analogous fashion. He did not overhit that much and even when he was putting more power in them it was in the form of extra linear speed/acceleration/pushing with the whole chain instead of "rotational whippyness" at the end, producing safe high-margin aggression instead of blazing balls smoking the grass somewhere near the corner of the court. Again, great preparation and execution since control, consistency and direction are dangerous enough on their own in grass (as proved by the regular Djokovic sweep after the Fed era).
At a few critical moments in the match, we could also see the champion factor, the seventh gear, the ability to execute the impossible when no other option is left. And the heroics adapted as well; they were there not just in the form of side-to-side hopeless chasing sprints (though there a few of those as well), but also as a set-winning outside-in stretched backhand return or as a flying drop volley when serving for the win. That's stuff from myths and legends.
Great observations, Daniel. Alcaraz certainly has that seventh gear!
Very much agreed. It's a losing proposition to repeatedly get into long rallies with Novak BUT you have to show him you are willing/capable to do it as needed to get the right ball to attack. Otherwise he'll be plenty happy to coax you into extended rallies knowing that you'll bail before he does via a low percentage prayer that will more often than not end in an error.
Fantastic write up. I especially love the distinction you made on movement adjustment by carlos between grass and clay. I’m privy to the theme of “trade-offs” for swing mechanics but the footwork adjustments fit that theme as well. I had never even considered that until today and I love that I always learn something from your articles.
Thanks Rijul! Glad you enjoyed it.
Hugh, incredible write up as always. I really look forward to your analysis after a huge match like this. It's an immediate read as soon as it hits the inbox. I humbly request a specific point analysis of the Alcaraz drop shot at 4-4 in the second set tiebreak. As you point out to that point the drop shot wasn't working too well and if he misses it it's probably match with Djokovic serving for a 2-0 lead up 5-4 in the tiebreak. I feel like it perfectly encapsulates the player and the match. Just an incredible (and a touch insane) shot there IMHO.
This was actually a really good time to play it, IMO. One thing that Alcaraz does very well on the drop shot is play it in the opposite direction of a player's recovery/split step. If you rewatch that point note how Alcaraz ticks all three boxes for a succesful drop shot:
1) Plays it inside the baseline
2) His opponent is behind the baseline
3) His opponent's momentum is heading right of screen, so Alcaraz plays it left (to the BH)
Wrote about in more detail here:
https://hughclarke.substack.com/p/alcaraz-x-tsitsipas-barcelona-final
Great points! It just amazes me he had the nerve to go for it there with the match on the line and his lack of success on it to that point. It catches the top of the tape and we are talking about a Novak straight sets win in all likelihood. I know he was inside the BL but just barely, middle of the court, and he put it over the higher side of the net from pretty far away because of the angle he was going for even though that was the best play bc of where Novak was as you point out.
The belief and nerves to execute a shot like that in that moment is what makes him so incredible to watch.
I would say the fact that he had the guts to play it stems from the fact his dropshot is so good. Not trying to analyze it technically but it’s actually I think a pretty high percentage shot for him to pull off. It’s gutsy but mathematically it was maybe the right move
Pre-match, I tweeted that one of the keys for Djokovic to win would be to lock Alcaraz in BH jail and slowly push him back/wide in trademark fashion. Suffice to say, Carlos's BH held up incredibly well under such pressure. Eventually it was enough.
Yeah he was so disciplined in that final, and struck a great balance between aggression and reducing errors
You mentioned that this match wasn't that great in terms of quality, and it got me really curious. I'd love it if you could suggest some matches off the top of your head that you consider top-quality, just to check them out and be blown away. Anyway, thanks for such a lovely article as always!
Don't get me wrong, this was an amazing match still (especially given the wind), but off the top of my head:
2008 Wimbledon final between Fed and Rafa
2011 RG semi-final - Federer snaps Djokovic's win streak
2009 AO - semi-final between Nadal and Verdasco (final has some epic peaks but the fifth set is a bit of a let down)
2012 AO QF - Nadal v Berdych, and the final of course, Nadal v Djokovic
Some of their early RG finals (2006 and 2007) between Federer and Nadal have amazing points. Their movement and power in their youth was something else.
I really appreciate it! Thanks a lot!
Great as always, loved the clay-grass FH footwork comparison. From a general standpoint, I loved watching Carlos adapt throughout the 2nd & 3rd sets. I gave as much credit in my own write-up to how willing he was to eventually accept and manage the pressure going into his FH in a way you rarely see from him to this extent, particularly against players who know how to restrict his overall game.
I think Carlos' constant adjustments did so much to take the wind out of Novak's sails. He was redirecting against mid-length trades (even ones with pace) supremely. He soaked up FH pressure knowing he could back himself defensively against any resulting weaker balls. He eventually looped his FH dtl also, which pinned the deuce court open and reduced Novak's power into and willingness to go to that pressure-able wing because his own short-angle shot was too much for Novak to retrieve.
There was so much of that on the BH side, as well, which prevented him from being coaxed into the same easily-drawn errors as in the 1st set. Not just refusing to miss but finding ways to draw errors and limit the pressure into his FH by centralising mid-BH trade (heavy or sliced) to either get inside-in (more top-spin) balls into his FH (instead of the harder, more precise BH redirects), or to make Novak continuously pull up on his BH across. And, if/when his resulting trade did come up short, it was feeding that dtl laser Carlos was doing serious damage with from a higher-margin position (again, too much for even Novak's FH to absorb).
Great points, Peter. He's actually an incredibly smart player who adjusts and it's normal at 20 to overheat the game I think. Scary to think what he will be like in 2, 3, 4 years. I'll check out your article today for sure
Absolutely, his planned strategies and especially his instinctively-guided decisions within matches do so much to illustrate his intelligence, but, as you say about overheating, that is/was something he was understandably prone to on the few occasions where he was being effectively tied down. So to pull off that kind of turn-around off here, a month after how it went down in Paris, is incredible and already pretty scary. (And thanks, I'd love to know what you think :).)
Well said, very good take on the match Hugh. It is certainly good to see someone stand up to the Big 3. They seem to have already destroyed 2 generation of players, Alcaraz well done. And JCF the perfect coach/mentor. JCF deserves a lot of credit
Yes great point. I was speaking with another coach and he highlighted how integral JCF has been and what a great relationship and team they seem to have. Respect, work ethic, etc.
Great analysis.
One thing I think Alcaraz did (might be completely imagining this) is relax a lot more during Djokovic's serve routine. Djokovic's routine is long, but also he varies the number of bounces. I think a lot of players are intensely concentrating on Djokovic the whole way through his routine, and by the time he serves they have already been concentrating for ~20 seconds. Alcaraz was chilling right up to near the ball toss which I think helps. This is all pure vibes analysis though unlike what Hugh produces.
No i think it could have some merit for sure. It's a skill to be able to switch on and off only when you need it I think.
Great Stuff!!! Your article reinforces a point I have been thinking about a lot lately. The problem with modern tennis is that it got rid of all the natural materials. People play on synthetic surfaces, with synthetic rackets and synthetic strings. They are used to hitting the perfect ball over and over again. Grass and clay make you adapt. The old wood rackets made you adapt. The gut strings were finicky. Uncle Toni had Rafa practice on courts with holes. Nole practiced in a swimming pool. Fed probably played with wood as a kid.
Alcaraz is a throwback like all great champions. You have to be able to play the whole court and improvise. Those who tried to conquer the big three did not. Thiem, Tsitsipas, Zverevev, and Shapo to some extent all had major deficiencies. Their game was not well rounded. How is it that Tsitispas and Shapo don't have a great slice? Alcaraz plays like a 20 year old used to play not like they play today.
Great points, Arturo.
I think you will like this piece from a while back that is directly related to your notions:
https://hughclarke.substack.com/p/death-of-a-forehand-part-ii
Exceptional , in-depth analysis !! Glad I found your content . The generic, on-the-surface match reviews have gotten me bored and frustrated . You are the best !! Thanks
Thanks Krishna!
The most impressive for me was the BH side from Carlos. Novak came with a pretty clear strategy for me: Attack Carlitos on the BH side. And surprisingly the ball came back with some quality that he didnt expect. World class Slices, BH DTL, BH CC, with great angles. The two most important points in the match for me, the 30-40 0-1 on fifth, and the 1-1 30-40 on fifth too, show that. Evolve - Adapt - COJONES!
Yep the Carlos defensive slice came up big a couple of times in this match. He can be great everywhere when he's on.
Wasn't ND's strategy to attach Carlitos on the FH side, especially going wide?
To NOVAK ATTACKS CARLOS FH ON THE RUN, FIRST HE NEEDS TO OPEN THAT SIDE, GOING TO THE BH. THE QUALITY AND QUANTITY OF VARIATION THAT CAME FROM CARLOS IN THAT SIDE WAS VERY GREAT, WHICH DIDN'T LEAVE NOVAK IN A CLEAR ATTACKING SITUATION. MANY TIMES WITH A GOOD SLICE, WITH A GOOD DEPTH, AND WITH BH DTL.
Been waiting on this, gonna read once I get home.