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May 15, 2023Liked by Hugh Clarke

It's getting to the point - and I know that opinion might go down as one the worst of the 21st century in no time - where I think the Marozsan / Struff / Sinner / Ruusuvuori match-up (so taking time away and being in full agression MO - might be worse for Carlos than someone like Djokovic (that's why it's controversial). Not even for technical reasons (even though carlos's backhand is likely to "break" faster/easier than nole's for reasons you mentioned earlier - no drop and inside prep) because for example Novak's worst GS match-up is Stan, famous ball butcher (with incredible fundamentals) but in the sense that I always felt, watching Novak, that he gave you a sense of rythm, like you kinda know what happens next. Which doesnt make him easier to beat because he is gonna break you down (just like he did with every next gen player with at least one technical flaw) but maybe just maybe Alcaraz (and also rune and maybe sinner soon), with their raw athleticism and great technique, can break that curse and take that rythm to their advantage over 5 sets.

Obviously a prediction but I'm very excited for the french. Physically speaking, losing early in Rome might be best for Carlos's condition.

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Could very well be the case. I sort of thought Zverev's win lat year at the French was the template where you constrict him in the backhand wing, but ultimately it's about matchups and not everyone has the backhand or ground game capable of suffocating him like that, and so perhaps you're right that this hyper aggressive style is best. In saying that, Alcaraz is still so young and this match will just add to his experience and he will adapt and learn ways to handle this tactic better.

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May 16, 2023Liked by Hugh Clarke

Definitely a good loss. As he said in his press conference as well, it will give him time to recover mentally and also rest up physically and have a decent training block before the French.

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Agree. I think it's almost perfect prep for the french; has a bank of wins and confidence, but also wary more than ever that anyone can beat you in this game

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May 15, 2023Liked by Hugh Clarke

Also adding soderling against rafa 2009 to the list of flat redliners who were able to break the technical best on a great day

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May 18, 2023Liked by Hugh Clarke

Would be interesting to hear your analysis on the Djokovic - Rune game. Novak clearly wasn’t himself. But what was it? Fatigue? Nerves? Either way, Rune capitalized.

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I think Novak isn't quite the player off the ground he was 10 years ago from a defensive/lockdown stance. He used to be able just go terminator mode and absorb and run all day. At times he can still do this, but I think at his age it's harder to play that physical brand. His game has papered over his lack of baseline "wall ability" with better serving, better aggression, better slice and volleys etc., so in that sense I think this isn't such a surprise on slow clay against a guy who can outlast and grind and rally—especially on clay.

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