I predict...that you will continue to write brilliant analyses of professional tennis players. Figure that's a safe bet. :)
I'm with you re: Rune. I can't believe that Tsitsipas, Medvedev, and Rublev are genuine veterans now...goodness, how time goes. At least Daniil has a major -- looks like Stefanos and Andrey will be another good-but-not-great players by the time they hang up their racquets. I thought for sure Tsitsipas would win one...
Tstisipas would have won that 2021 RG final 9 out of 10 times. Djokovic has dropped predictable slam finals before in his career but this was one of those matches where as Hugh says, a very minute advantage in a skill does a lot of damage over a long period of time. Tsitsipas won a straight set match there, but crumbled under the weight after 5 sets. For me, whether or not he wins a slam has nothing to do anymore, to play 2 slam finals and encounter Djokovic in both, you can't do much about that honestly.
As for Rublev, I wish tennis gods would be little more nice to the guy. Deserves to play atleast a few slam finals.
1) No Djokovic prediction? I can understand because he is tough to predict now. You’ve called 2 slams for Sinner, which leaves two for him or other to take. Given you’re not exactly bullish on Alcaraz, I assume he must be somewhere top of your list for AO and USO.
2) To balance the Alcaraz’s backhand worsening (great explanation), few things to note that actually make me more bullish than last year :
A) He’s still tinkering the serve and according to Intuitive Tennis on YouTube his most recent iteration which we’ll see at AO is his best yet.
B) He’s coming to AO with a heavier racket. You’ve talked a lot about swingweight decrease as an argument for baseline consistency fading at the top given the speed/accuracy tradeoff, Alcaraz is seemingly going opposite way of the trend. So even with a slightly worse BH, adding weight could compensate.
I actually have on my prediction an almost exact repeat of last year : Djokovic taking revenge Down Under, Alcaraz doing the channel slam again, Sinner taking US. Zverev still slamless. I agree with all your points about Sinner still being underrated on natural surfaces but I still think he does a few things that tip it in Carlos’s favor at RG and Wimbledon.
3) Hoping you’re right about the Rune call. That Lehecka match wasn’t exactly a good signal.
1) Djokovic I probably should have made a point of. I don't think he will win a slam this year if he has to go through an alcaraz or sinner. Olympics was a flash in the pan in a rather ordinary 12 months, and we are five months down the road from that and he is only getting older. Has failed to generate break points against Sinner, and had his worst ever (statistically) second-serve return match against Opelka. The next fortnight is probably his best chance for the year I reckon.
2a) Agreed I like the serve change. Still a little kink where he pauses like his old pattern but in time I can see this becoming a really smooth motion.
2b) Yes he said that was to help his return, so we will see how that shakes out.
I am leaning Sinner 3 slams if no ban, with Alcaraz at the French.
3) Rune was awful in brisbane. Still seems very immature compared to Alcaraz and Sinner.
C) I don’t think Alcaraz is keeping that BH for the slower surfaces. He seems very aware of his game and I don’t think he’d commit such a blunder. So that makes some of my worry go away
I saw it on Ubitennis, in italian though, but a quick google search should make you find it, it's 5 more grams on the central part of the frame if I remember correctly, I don't know how much of an impact it could have, but they surely know better than me
Generally it's thought to add more plow or power to the racquet without upsetting the balance. Again, I think this is a response to faster surfaces and the need to either shorten some swings or take greater advantage of those shots that require shorter swings, like return or bh.
That's a really interesting look at the Alcaraz backhand! Intrigued to see how it holds up this year. I'm just finishing my predictions article and that's got me doubting my slam predictions. But I'll stick with them. I've got Alcaraz, Alcaraz, Sinner, Fritz. If I had to be bold I'd say Alcaraz does the calendar slam.
At what point during the '24 season did Carlos adjust his backhand? Was it after FO/Wimby? If it was at the beginning of indoors, post USO, maybe it's a reaction to faster surfaces.
If that's the case, it might be interesting to compare his Beijing performance against Shanghai, just one week later. Beijing was one of his best hardcourt performances of his career, outside the USO.
PS - I know it's all about the AO right now, but I'm marking my calendar for Rotterdam to see how Alcaraz progresses indoors.
I could see Draper (if he gets more match fit) and Machac cracking the top 10. They are #8 and #9 in the elo rankings right now.
Draper had a breakout year in 2024, with the Stuttgart title, USO semi, and Vienna title.
Machac was looking like he was going to beat Fritz in the United Cup final until he got injured and had to retire. Machac had wins in 2024 over Tiafoe (AO), Musetti (Marseille), Rublev (Miami), Djokovic (Geneva), Paul (Tokyo and Shanghai), Alcaraz (Shanghai), and Dimitrov (Vienna)
Yes I've done courses in the game-based approach. I think a lot of it is brilliant, and the basic idea of using tactics to develop technique makes for intuitive strokes (similar to constraints led approaches, hence why clay players tend to develop big forehands, and hardcourt juniors tend to develop big serves/flat backhands), but at some point you also need to understand that once a stroke is developed it has certain tradeoffs at a high level of competition (i.e., as you go higher in the rankings, the harder it is to adjust your developed stroke to other tactics. For example, good luck getting Mannarino to play high and heavy/spin oriented. He can't do it with his strokes) This is where I like to say that at the developmental level, tactics develops technique, but at the pro level, technique dictates tactics. It flips at a certain level/stage of development
Interesting to read through that ITF report... For me, narrowing the service the box is a terrible idea, as it will only place more of a premium on the speed of serve. By reducing the options / ability (for lesser hitters) to dictate service with angles and box placement, there's nowhere else to go besides just hitting bigger (which will favor bigger/taller guys). Surely a bad thing for middle-weight tennis.
Seems like something that will need to be continued to be regulated via ball and court speed. If they were to adjust the size of the service box, the potentially more interesting option would be to shorten it (i.e., bring the service line closer to the net), which would make serving at higher speeds more difficult and increase the value of placement & angle.
Of course, the nuclear option to all of this is to just eliminate the second serve altogether...
It's a tough one to figure out for sure. Shortening the service box still then favours the tall guys who have the angle to hit big serves into shorter parts of the box. Court speed is the obvious one
Yeah I hear you there. At the end of the day, serving is always going to be more favorable for taller guys. The thought was there'd be a little less relative advantage to taller guys by going to a shorter box than a narrower box. Would you agree on that? Or is it six of one, half a dozen the other in your mind?
I can definitevely say that moving the service line up a but would be much better aesthetically than buysing up the court and adding another set of lines inside the services boxes!
for sure re the lines. I think in that itf report they found that the angle of the serve relative to the returner was one condition that made returning harder, hence their proposal to narrow the box and reduce the angles, whilst keeping ball speed the same.
Agree for the most part. I have stepped of the rune hypetrain though. I’m a big fan of the guy but it seems like he has lost the fluidness in his strokes. Maybe too much weightlifting.
Really interested to see how Berrettini's fitness changes this season. I've worried about his size a bit, too much power for the ligaments, etc. Would like to see him train more for endurance and lessen the strain on his mechanics.
I predict...that you will continue to write brilliant analyses of professional tennis players. Figure that's a safe bet. :)
I'm with you re: Rune. I can't believe that Tsitsipas, Medvedev, and Rublev are genuine veterans now...goodness, how time goes. At least Daniil has a major -- looks like Stefanos and Andrey will be another good-but-not-great players by the time they hang up their racquets. I thought for sure Tsitsipas would win one...
Tstisipas would have won that 2021 RG final 9 out of 10 times. Djokovic has dropped predictable slam finals before in his career but this was one of those matches where as Hugh says, a very minute advantage in a skill does a lot of damage over a long period of time. Tsitsipas won a straight set match there, but crumbled under the weight after 5 sets. For me, whether or not he wins a slam has nothing to do anymore, to play 2 slam finals and encounter Djokovic in both, you can't do much about that honestly.
As for Rublev, I wish tennis gods would be little more nice to the guy. Deserves to play atleast a few slam finals.
Hi Hugh,
Great read as always.
A few comments :
1) No Djokovic prediction? I can understand because he is tough to predict now. You’ve called 2 slams for Sinner, which leaves two for him or other to take. Given you’re not exactly bullish on Alcaraz, I assume he must be somewhere top of your list for AO and USO.
2) To balance the Alcaraz’s backhand worsening (great explanation), few things to note that actually make me more bullish than last year :
A) He’s still tinkering the serve and according to Intuitive Tennis on YouTube his most recent iteration which we’ll see at AO is his best yet.
B) He’s coming to AO with a heavier racket. You’ve talked a lot about swingweight decrease as an argument for baseline consistency fading at the top given the speed/accuracy tradeoff, Alcaraz is seemingly going opposite way of the trend. So even with a slightly worse BH, adding weight could compensate.
I actually have on my prediction an almost exact repeat of last year : Djokovic taking revenge Down Under, Alcaraz doing the channel slam again, Sinner taking US. Zverev still slamless. I agree with all your points about Sinner still being underrated on natural surfaces but I still think he does a few things that tip it in Carlos’s favor at RG and Wimbledon.
3) Hoping you’re right about the Rune call. That Lehecka match wasn’t exactly a good signal.
1) Djokovic I probably should have made a point of. I don't think he will win a slam this year if he has to go through an alcaraz or sinner. Olympics was a flash in the pan in a rather ordinary 12 months, and we are five months down the road from that and he is only getting older. Has failed to generate break points against Sinner, and had his worst ever (statistically) second-serve return match against Opelka. The next fortnight is probably his best chance for the year I reckon.
2a) Agreed I like the serve change. Still a little kink where he pauses like his old pattern but in time I can see this becoming a really smooth motion.
2b) Yes he said that was to help his return, so we will see how that shakes out.
I am leaning Sinner 3 slams if no ban, with Alcaraz at the French.
3) Rune was awful in brisbane. Still seems very immature compared to Alcaraz and Sinner.
Edit to 2)
C) I don’t think Alcaraz is keeping that BH for the slower surfaces. He seems very aware of his game and I don’t think he’d commit such a blunder. So that makes some of my worry go away
Where did you see that Alcaraz switched to a heavier racket? Any details on the change?
I saw it on Ubitennis, in italian though, but a quick google search should make you find it, it's 5 more grams on the central part of the frame if I remember correctly, I don't know how much of an impact it could have, but they surely know better than me
Generally it's thought to add more plow or power to the racquet without upsetting the balance. Again, I think this is a response to faster surfaces and the need to either shorten some swings or take greater advantage of those shots that require shorter swings, like return or bh.
That's a really interesting look at the Alcaraz backhand! Intrigued to see how it holds up this year. I'm just finishing my predictions article and that's got me doubting my slam predictions. But I'll stick with them. I've got Alcaraz, Alcaraz, Sinner, Fritz. If I had to be bold I'd say Alcaraz does the calendar slam.
Interesting! I am leaning Sinner three slams if no ban, so I would have to say Sinner does the calendar slam if anyone.
At what point during the '24 season did Carlos adjust his backhand? Was it after FO/Wimby? If it was at the beginning of indoors, post USO, maybe it's a reaction to faster surfaces.
I think it was Shanghai and it may be just that.
If that's the case, it might be interesting to compare his Beijing performance against Shanghai, just one week later. Beijing was one of his best hardcourt performances of his career, outside the USO.
PS - I know it's all about the AO right now, but I'm marking my calendar for Rotterdam to see how Alcaraz progresses indoors.
I could see Draper (if he gets more match fit) and Machac cracking the top 10. They are #8 and #9 in the elo rankings right now.
Draper had a breakout year in 2024, with the Stuttgart title, USO semi, and Vienna title.
Machac was looking like he was going to beat Fritz in the United Cup final until he got injured and had to retire. Machac had wins in 2024 over Tiafoe (AO), Musetti (Marseille), Rublev (Miami), Djokovic (Geneva), Paul (Tokyo and Shanghai), Alcaraz (Shanghai), and Dimitrov (Vienna)
I sent my top-10 list to Gill Gross pre 2025 and had: Sinner, Alcaraz, Zverev, Rune, Medvedev, Fritz, Draper, Djokovic, Berrettini, de Minaur.
Machac needs a little more on the serve and the forehand can spray to be a consistent results guy I think, but his best stuff is unbelievable
1/ When you look at FAA’s backhand, has there been any adjustments of late?
2/ I hope you’re right about Rune.
1 - no not really.
2 - me too! Good for the game when he is mixing it with the top guys consistently
Hi Hugh
Great article as always
I think you are right about Fonseca. The kid has great groundstrokes. About Sinner, I think Alcaraz will be a tough opponent for him, we'll see.
I wanted to ask you something else though, have you ever heard of game-based tennis coaching? What are your thoughts on it?
Yes I've done courses in the game-based approach. I think a lot of it is brilliant, and the basic idea of using tactics to develop technique makes for intuitive strokes (similar to constraints led approaches, hence why clay players tend to develop big forehands, and hardcourt juniors tend to develop big serves/flat backhands), but at some point you also need to understand that once a stroke is developed it has certain tradeoffs at a high level of competition (i.e., as you go higher in the rankings, the harder it is to adjust your developed stroke to other tactics. For example, good luck getting Mannarino to play high and heavy/spin oriented. He can't do it with his strokes) This is where I like to say that at the developmental level, tactics develops technique, but at the pro level, technique dictates tactics. It flips at a certain level/stage of development
Interesting to read through that ITF report... For me, narrowing the service the box is a terrible idea, as it will only place more of a premium on the speed of serve. By reducing the options / ability (for lesser hitters) to dictate service with angles and box placement, there's nowhere else to go besides just hitting bigger (which will favor bigger/taller guys). Surely a bad thing for middle-weight tennis.
Seems like something that will need to be continued to be regulated via ball and court speed. If they were to adjust the size of the service box, the potentially more interesting option would be to shorten it (i.e., bring the service line closer to the net), which would make serving at higher speeds more difficult and increase the value of placement & angle.
Of course, the nuclear option to all of this is to just eliminate the second serve altogether...
It's a tough one to figure out for sure. Shortening the service box still then favours the tall guys who have the angle to hit big serves into shorter parts of the box. Court speed is the obvious one
Yeah I hear you there. At the end of the day, serving is always going to be more favorable for taller guys. The thought was there'd be a little less relative advantage to taller guys by going to a shorter box than a narrower box. Would you agree on that? Or is it six of one, half a dozen the other in your mind?
I can definitevely say that moving the service line up a but would be much better aesthetically than buysing up the court and adding another set of lines inside the services boxes!
for sure re the lines. I think in that itf report they found that the angle of the serve relative to the returner was one condition that made returning harder, hence their proposal to narrow the box and reduce the angles, whilst keeping ball speed the same.
Also, Fonseca has won 14 out of his last 15 matches. One win away from qualifying at the AO.
Agree for the most part. I have stepped of the rune hypetrain though. I’m a big fan of the guy but it seems like he has lost the fluidness in his strokes. Maybe too much weightlifting.
Really interested to see how Berrettini's fitness changes this season. I've worried about his size a bit, too much power for the ligaments, etc. Would like to see him train more for endurance and lessen the strain on his mechanics.