Wimbledon Draw Preview

conditions — form — quarter picks — dark horses — upsets

Main draw action of The Championships gets underway on Monday. A look at the men’s singles draw.

Conditions

Grass court tennis has a way of dragging modern tennis back to more quaint origins: topspin is muted, slices and volleys are rewarded, aggressive footwork can be punished, and precision can have its way over brute force.

Wimbledon itself can differ from other lead-in events. Halle and Stuttgart have been two of the quickest surfaces in recent years, with Wimbledon on the slower side as it relates to grass events. Here’s a snapshot of the top-30 fastest surfaces of the last three seasons from tennisedge.io:

Table from tennisedge.io

Warm and sunny conditions are expected for the first few rounds, outside of Wednesday:

Form

Notable 2025 grass event records coming in to Wimbledon: Fritz 8-1 (Stuttgart & Eastbourne titles), Zverev 6-2 (Stuttgart final), Alcaraz 5-0 (Queen’s title), Bublik 5-0 (Halle title), Lehecka 4-1 (Queen’s final), Medvedev 5-2 (Halle final).

Tennis insights released some grass match data to compare top players. Familiar faces are leading the way on serve (Bublik, Shelton, Zverev) and return (Sinner, Medvedev, de Minaur).

Obviously some very small sample sizes for a lot of these players.

Alcaraz’s forehand was impressive at Queens, but look at Bublik posting an 8.3 across five matches! That’s been his weaker wing throughout his career, but a change of scenery (a Vegas road trip) and racquet (he’s another one who has jumped to the Aero 98, and in a much lighter setup reportedly), has turned that forehand into a steadier weapon in recent months. A shot of confidence from match wins doesn’t hurt either.

I’m always most bullish on players when their weakest shot improves. We’ve seen countless examples of that having explosive and immediate payoffs — Nadal’s 2010 US Open serve, Djokovic’s serve change in 2011, Federer’s more aggressive backhand in 2017 — not only in these all-time greats, but in more recent times as well:

• Draper beefing up the forehand from a lefty, spin-oriented holding pattern into a more dynamic and aggressive weapon in the last 18-24 months.

• de Minaur improving his serve speed and aggression in 2024

• Sinner’s serve and movement gains from the back-end of 2023

• Alcaraz’s serve tweaks this year had marginal serve speed gains initially, and Queen’s was some of his best serving in his career

• Zverev lowered his serve toss and got rid of the serving yips that plagued his game in the early 2020s

  

Other things I’ve liked this grass season:

• Fritz has done a great job standing closer in on return and blocking/chipping the forehand.

• Lehecka ventured forward a lot in that Alcaraz final, and he did pretty well up at the net against the best grass court defender in tennis.

Once again, I’ve filled out a complete bracket at bracket.tennis that you can check out here.

Overall, I felt this draw was quite “ordered”. For whatever reason, seeds here looked to have kind openers, or the dangerous openers have been paired with in-form seeds. It will be interesting to see if big-servers have an outsized impact in round one with the mercury hitting 33.

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First Quarter

Sinner def. Humbert

Sinner has a great draw and has Shapovalov as his projected seed. He’s dangerous on his day, but those days are rarer than the Canadian would like. Some other notable high seeds and excellent grass exponents — Musetti, Paul, and Dimitrov — have injury concerns and minimal grass preparation this year, so it’s unclear what kind of fitness and form they bring. Shelton seems built for best-of-five slam tennis, but he’s got a tricky draw with plenty of grass experience in his section. Plus his game gets somewhat muted on grass: the kick serve, movement, and forehand hunting can be exposed, but hot temperatures on Tuesday will help his serve get through quicker and higher. Nakashima and Humbert love the grass.

Seeds Upset

• Feeling it: none

• Maybe? Basilashvili def. Musetti; Monfils def. Humbert

Quality Qualifier: Marton Fucsovic comes in as a lucky loser and has grass court credentials: a former junior champion and quarterfinalist in 2021.

First-Round Match: Humbert vs Monfils in a rematch of their 2019 five-setter. Comesana vs Moutet also has five set potential, with both players great at the backhand slice. Moutet’s won a lot of tennis on grass already, but he could be tired given his game style, and Comesana has the tools to handle the Frenchman’s tricky game; he can fight slice with slice, and venture forward pretty well.

Dark Horses: Up top I think Medjedovic will be dangerous against an undercooked Tommy Paul in round two, and I’m picking the Serbian to get through there as a surprise upset. In the bottom section keep an eye on Fucsovics and Goffin for two older guys who are past their best but best on grass.

Almost went with…Musetti. His grass record is excellent, and he is in career-best form. The big question mark was the fitness and lack of grass match play after such a big clay season. I think there could be a post clay hang-over here with such a tough draw. I like Nakashima’s game on this surface and he’s got some reps and wins under the belt.

Toughest Draw? Musetti. Dangerous opener against a huge hitter. Then likely Sonego, who is no slouch on quicker surfaces. Then a projected third-round with Nakashima, who has had good results at Wimbledon.

Getting ahead of myself: Shelton vs Humbert in a battle of two lefties would be interesting. Huge firepower in Shelton, with early striking and aggression from Humbert.

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Second Quarter

Djokovic def. Draper

How will Draper handle the pressure of carrying the British hopes? He’s 2-3 lifetime at Wimbledon, but he’s been a work in progress every year, and this is the best version yet. I think this could be Djokovic’s last great shot at a major, and he’s got a decent draw to sink his teeth into it. There is grass talent here in Michelsen, de Minaur, and Bublik, with the Kazakh in red-hot form; can he handle the pressure of being a favourite to go deep? Machac’s game should translate well to grass, but the body has continually let him down. Mensik should excel here over the course of his career, but five-set tennis has given him a cruel record thus far. Cobolli is a clay courter but he is in form.

Seeds Upset

• Feeling it:

• Maybe? Munar def. Bublik; Kecmanovic def. Michelsen; Dzumhur def. Machac.

Quality Qualifier: Arthur Cazaux is looking to regain the form that took him to the fourth round of last year’s Australian Open.

First-Round Match: Bublik vs Munar could be a cracker. Bublik has always worked hard to reduce the pressure on himself; the nonchalant attitude and excessive tweeners are symptomatic of that, but it was good to see his true emotions flood out at Roland Garros. Although he just won Halle, that is a quicker and more indoor-like court, and Munar is sneaky solid this year, pushing Alcaraz in Queens recently. He’s been ear-marked as one of the favourites to go deep this year, and that can be an uncomfortable tag to wear when you’re practiced in creating underdog vibes.

Dark Horses: Marcos Giron has the game for grass, and if he could sneak a win over his likely second-round opponent in Mensik, it’s a relatively weak section of the draw. From the bottom section I’ll take the big-serving Frenchman Quentin Halys.

Almost went with…Bublik. The guy is in career-best form and grass is his best surface. Plus, a third-round match would have all the pressure on home-town favourite Draper, should the seeds hold.

Toughest Draw? nothing stands out for the top guys: Djokovic, Draper, and de Minaur all have friendly opening rounds, although Draper has 2017 finalist Marin Cilic lurking as a possible second round opponent, and Michelsen as the 30th seed has a tough opener, as does Bublik.

Getting ahead of myself: A Draper vs Bublik third-round rematch would be mouth-watering, so soon after their Roland Garros battle that went the way of the Kazakh.

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Third Quarter

Medvedev def. Zverev

Fritz is in red-hot form, but there is big-serving danger early on in GMP and Diallo. Zverev’s worst slam results are at Wimbledon; his game struggles with the lower, skiddier bounce, and his transition game isn’t good enough to capitalise on his serve. Berrettini is a grass beast but hasn’t played since Roma. Khachanov is just built for week one of slams, but that’s a tough first round. Cerundolo has a grass title but it’s not his best surface. Medvedev said recently that “grass used to be my best surface”. Well, I think it is again now, given his serving issues. Popyrin’s game struggles on the turf without some bounce and kick. ADF’s game is suited to the grass.

Seeds Upset:

• Feeling it: Fery def. Popyrin is my wild one; Borges def. Cerundolo

• Maybe? Rinderknech def. Zverev; Mcdonald def. Khachanov; GMP def. Fritz

Quality Qualifier: not a qualifier but Fery was given a wildcard and he is well-suited to the grass.

First-Round Match: Some big-serving danger for some of the seeds here in hot conditions: Fritz vs GMP; Holger vs Jarry. Rinderknech vs Zverev. Not-so-big servers in Mcdonald vs Khachanov has five sets written all over it.

Dark Horses: Gabriel Diallo is a 6’8’’ Canadian with a decent net game. He’s been taking bodies this year, and a grass title only two weeks ago (Hertogenbosch). From the bottom section I’ll take Ethan Quinn. The young American has a big forehand and might get through a rusty Berrettini should they meet in R2.

Almost went with… Fritz. For reasons below.

Toughest Draw? Fritz. Arguably the most in-form grass player right now, but I think his draw is tough. GMP could make a few breakers fall his way, especially in very hot conditions where his serve will come through that much faster; ditto Diallo. ADF is a quality grass player. Then Medvedev, who I think has an easier path for week 1.

Getting ahead of myself: There’s nothing deep in this section that gets me salivating; if you’ve seen one Medvedev vs Zverev match, you’ve seen them all. I am looking forward to plenty of early action: GMP vs Fritz. Zverev vs Rinderknech, Mcdonald vs Khachanov. How does Berrettini come back? If he played Zverev in round 3 that would be a watch.

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Fourth Quarter

Alcaraz def. Tiafoe

Alcaraz is peaking right now and has a great draw. Rune hasn’t delivered that same style and performance since a promising title run in Barcelona and has a tough opener. FAA has made plenty of deep runs at smaller events all year (two semis on the grass here also), but he’s misfired at the majors and has a tricky opener against Duckworth. Tsitsipas is taking on his first slam with Ivanesevic in his box. Rublev still has Safin in his corner, but Rublev doesn’t like grass, and Safin never did either. Tiafoe had a run in Paris and does well on grass with his hand skills and compact game. Lehecka and Griekspoor are both in good grass form and are big hitters from all over.

Seeds Upset:

• Feeling it: Jarry def. Rune

• Maybe? Duckworth def. FAA; Brooksby def. Griekspoor

Quality Qualifier: Nico Jarry is a big-serving Chilean making his way back up the rankings. Danger zone for Holger.

First-Round Match: Fearnley vs Fonseca will be nuclear from the forehand side.

Dark Horses: Fonseca. Fonseca. Fonseca. The backlash after some losses this year has been ridiculous. I will double down on this guy all day long. It’s a matter of when, not if he breaks through. No, grass is not his best surface. No, he isn’t fully developed. No this isn’t a great draw. But he is elite from both sides, big serve, moves forward, welcomes the pressure. That takes you a long way. His best major chance was always going to be the US Open this year with the higher bounce and surer footing, but let’s not pretend he couldn’t find himself in a third or fourth round here. From the bottom section I’ll take lefty crafty veteran Adrian Mannarino.

Almost went with… Rune. He’s done well here in recent years, but Jarry has three matches under the belt and is a super dangerous round one opponent. Holger has a reputation of having lulls in matches; he can’t afford to have one here.

Toughest Draw? Rune. Jarry, then Tien or Basavareddy, then any of Brooksby, Fonseca, Fearnley, or Griekspoor as a third-round.

Getting ahead of myself: I’d be curious to see how Tsitsipas plays Alcaraz on grass with Goran in his corner. I don’t have it projected here but Fonseca vs Rune would be an interesting round 3 if it happened.

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Semis and Final

I have a rematch from last month’s epic at Roland Garros. I think Sinner and Alcaraz are a level above everyone else at the moment. Djokovic will have a lot to say about that, but I would still give the slightest of edges to Sinner over Djokovic here on grass, where the Serb’s strengths (precise aggression) are amplified. We’ll see how the opening rounds fare. When you’ve got an all-time great and two future all-time greats in the mix anything can happen.

I got rinsed on YouTube for having the view that I would lean — repeat, lean — Sinner in a final here against Alcaraz. That was funny given how competitive their last five matches have been, even in slower conditions that favour Alcaraz. Since then Alcaraz has won Queen’s and Sinner has made some coaching changes, so now I am leaning Alcaraz. Leaning Alcaraz. I always call it as I see it. If that final did eventuate I would write a preview fleshing out my reasoning for having such a take, one way or the other. Anyway.

That’s all I got. I’ll see you in the comments. HC