The US Open gets underway today. These Sunday starts don’t give me much time to bang out a preview, so let’s get on with it!
Conditions
Typically hot and humid, although the opening week has some mild days, and these temps aren’t anything to balk at.
But I think more important is the calendar spot for the US Open. In a sport that sends its players to Australia during Christmas, we are now entering the tenth month of the season. And I think that’s a major reason the US Open has been a happy hunting ground for underdogs in recent years:
As I’ve often done recently, these draw brackets are filled in at bracket.tennis
First Quarter
Jodar def. Musetti
I think Zverev will falter early here. Some combination of post-slam success letdown/fatigue/pressure of being seeded 1/and really the first couple of recent losses that could be considered “poor” by his season’s standards. Jodar has been on an absolute tear since Marrakech basically, and he has a good draw here. “Big hitting youngster with match wins” is the tag that several first-time slam winners have carried into a USO: Delpo ‘09, Cilic ‘14, Thiem ‘20, Alcaraz ‘22. Can Jodar join that list? Gill Gross thinks so. I think peak de Minaur has already happened and mentally and physically he won’t be at his best; it was this tournament last year that maybe broke him. Musetti has a good draw and with his injury woes in the middle of the season, I think he enters here with fresh venom carrying the one-handed torch.
Seeds Upset:
Feeling it: JM Cerundolo over Ruud
Maybe? Sonego over Zverev
Quality Qualifier:
First-Round Match: Sweeny vs Moutet in a Super Flyweight, court sliding, ball slicing, hustling-at-end-range, drop-shotting affair that will look nothing like the rest of this fortnight’s matches. Check it out.
Dark Horses: Grigor Dimitrov
Almost went with… I mean, I did think about Zverev here obviously. It’s a good draw on paper and he’s made the finals before, but Halys and Tabilo are having solid seasons.
Toughest Draw?
Getting ahead of myself: Musetti vs Zverev or Musetti vs Jodar. If the Italian can get back to his best it’s always a treat watching him mix in different ball flights and problem solve from deep court positions against the big-hitters.
Second Quarter
Fritz def. Tien
This is where FAA’s run to form started last year. With points to defend and a history of shaky starts, he at least has a decent opener to hopefully settle in. Cobolli has another nice draw, following deep runs at the Channel Slams earlier this summer, but the Italian’s performances can often yo-yo. Fritz is the quarter favourite and brings a recent title from Washington to boost an easy section of the draw. Plus, his early-year knee tendonitis might be a silver lining here; he’s “only” played 46 matches, which is probably less than he usually does, the damn gamer. The 2024 USO runner-up, he’ll like his chances of another deep run here. Tien hasn’t won a match in New York yet, but I suspect that might change this fortnight, with his baseline control and fitness earning him a top 15 ranking now. Sneaky good player who I think won’t have the firepower to get over a Fritz in form. Mensik made a semifinal at Roland Garros, but the forehand continues to be a weakness when the modern game demands it become a strength.
Seeds Upset:
Feeling it: Giron def. Buse
Maybe? Mochizuki def. Mensik
Quality Qualifier: Basavareddy defeated an undercooked Fritz at the French Open earlier this year.
First-Round Match: Looking forward to Mochizuki’s pancake forehand giving low-bouncing grief to Mensik’s forehand.
Dark Horses: Jerry Shang is a talented and explosive lefty who was out of the game for much of 2025 and is still making his way back. He’s got a forehand that can copy-paste winners.
Almost went with… Cobolli is tempting given his ceiling, but he’s too inconsistent day-to-day compared to Fritz.
Toughest Draw?
Getting ahead of myself: Shang vs Cobolli would be an explosive and entertaining match; neither guy will serve the other off the court, and the shot-making potential is there. Tien vs FAA in a lefty vs righty, precision vs power affair would be good.
Third Quarter
Djokovic def. Atmane
Perhaps the weakest section of the draw. Novak is 39, but I do think this is going to be his last genuine stand. If he’s healthy and fit then this draw is really one of his biggest opportunities. Medvedev has been in tatters since Rome. Nakashima and Tiafoe bring form and the flag, but I don’t think either will win this section. Tiafoe has often been a player who lacked motivation all season until he arrived in NYC, where he peaked with regular second week showings. This year, he has been a model professional, racking up 37 wins and a title in Halle, but I do think he has a tricky opener, and with the opportunity better than ever, will Foe feel the pressure? Nakashima has a sneaky-elite serve, but there’s a lack of X-factor, despite good fundamentals, that kills his chances of big titles and runs.
Seeds Upset:
Feeling it: Damm def. Tiafoe
Maybe? Cilic def. Rublev, Kovacevic def. Vacherot
Quality Qualifier: Rei Sakamoto is a Japanese youngster who won the 2024 junior Aussie Open, and defeated fellow legendary countryman Kei Nishikori in the last round of Q’s here. Also watch for Federico Cina, the young Italian with firepower and a Sinner-esque forehand.
First-Round Match: Berrettini vs Wawrinka for the vibes.
Dark-and-left-handed (hooved?) Horses: Martin Damm. He’s a big-serving lefty facing off against Tiafoe — one of the most aced players on tour (they actually faced off in the first-round last year). Damm has the highest TennisViz “In attack” score on tour at the moment, and while the serve isn’t precise, it probably doesn’t need to be in this matchup to cause headaches. Damm was losing to Jodar in a bunch of US Challengers late in 2025, and has quietly racked up plenty of wins throughout 2026. Terence Atmane is also a lefty with a jack-in-the-box service action and buzz-sawing heavy forehand. He had a deep run in Cincinnati last year, and while his results are inconsistent, I think the US Open’s energy matches his own. He beat Tiafoe in Washington, Draper and Khachanov in Montreal, and played two tiebreakers with Zverev in Cincy. He’s your prototypical dark horse.
Almost went with… Nakashima. The young American is having a breakout summer, with a final in Montreal, and semifinal in Cincinnati. The serve and backhand are elite, and the forehand has been tidy.
Toughest Draw? I think Tiafoe’s draw is tougher than it looks. Foe will have big expectations — from himself and the public. And while he’s never been one to shy away from the big stage, I think Damm and Sakamoto will get into tiebreakers with fearlessness.
Getting ahead of myself: Atmane vs Medvedev would be a contrast in styles with two real personalities, but this is a quintessential ‘getting ahead of myself match’; I wouldn’t be surprised if both lost first round.
Fourth Quarter
Alcaraz def. Fils
Shelton, Fils, and Alcaraz are the three names that stand out as having the game to win this section, but crucially, all three have the game to lose this section as well: Shelton does not break often enough to avoid tiebreakers and difficult moments; so far Fils hasn’t been able to make a deep run at a major, often due to his body failing him; and Alcaraz is a known-unknown, the talent and resume have already been answered, but the linchpin of his game — that god-gifted right wrist — is a question mark until match time.
Seeds Upset:
Feeling it: Wong def. Paul
Maybe? LVA def. Norrie, Safiullin def. Alcaraz, Griekspoor def. Shelton
Quality Qualifier: Both Coleman Wong and Lloyd Harris have form coming into this one. Harris is a former USO quarterfinalist (2021).
First-Round Match: A couple here: Safiullin vs Alcaraz would stand alone as a first-round pick, even without the intrigue of it being Alcaraz’s first match in over four months. Shelton vs Griekspoor is a tough first-rounder that has a potential upset. Tsitsipas vs Fils in a battle of big forehands.
Dark Horses: JJ Wolf hasn’t been part of the tour pack for some years (he was ranked outside the top 200 for 2024 and 2025) but he won the Vancouver Challenger last month and had a showing in Cincy. He made the fourth-round of the 2023 Australian Open and has twice made the third-round in NYC.
Almost went with… Fils and Shelton are the two players who won the lead-in 1000s (Shelton in Montreal; Fils in Cincinnati) and have the kind of firepower and big-match fearlessness to take on NYC in all its light and noise. But Alcaraz is a generational talent who has a seemingly endless repertoire capable of finding zero-day weaknesses in opponents. He says he is fit and ready, and I take a warrior’s words at face value.
Toughest Draw? Shelton has some big-serving firepower in Griekspoor and Hurkacz. As someone who doesn’t break serve often, the American will have to lean on his ability to perform in big moments.
Getting ahead of myself: Shelton vs Fils? Alcaraz vs Fils? Put talented firepower on Ashe at night and let New York do its thing.
Semis and Finals
In the top half I’ve got Fritz defeating Jodar in a rematch from Washington Final. I think Fritz’s game neutralises Jodar’s strengths in several key ways:
The American’s serve precision means he isn’t as hurt from Jodar’s elite aggressive returning.
Jodar’s forehand crosscourt is one of the heaviest balls on tour, getting high and way from his opponents, but Fritz’s aggressive court position and extreme western grip are well-equipped to handle high and rising balls. It’s why he’s won Indian Wells.
Jodar loves to step in early on the backhand, but Fritz’s backhand is an excellent compact reply, able to trade deep crosscourt and keep Jodar pinned deeper.
Finally, we are in the US. Fritz would have the overwhelming crowd support, and the big-match experience on Ashe.
In the bottom half I have Alcaraz defeating Djokovic in a rematch from Australia. I think if both reach this stage, it will probably mean two things: Alcaraz is feeling pretty good, and Novak isn’t. Five matches seems to be the bottleneck for the Serb’s fitness at 39, and the only time he has progressed past the semifinal stage recently (at this year’s Australian Open) is when he was gifted a walkover against Mensik and a retirement from Musetti. He’d need some draw luck and easy matches to have a good crack at Carlos, and even then, the speed that Sincaraz play at seem much too fast for 39-year-old legs.
In the final I have Alcaraz defeating Fritz. They played a close match at Wimbledon last year in the semifinals that could have gone five sets, and also the final of Tokyo last year. Fritz’s serve can keep it close, but once the rallies begin I think Alcaraz has too much variation in attack (the drop shots, the angles) and in defence (the flighted balls, the slice).
In some sense, Alcaraz winning this year would still fit the US Open’s style: fresh legs on a big-hitting underdog (well, an underdog by Sincaraz standards).
Well, let’s see how it shakes out! I’ll see you in the comments.
All aboard the Daniil Medvedev's train (I am delusional, I know...)
Great analysis as always, I do feel Fils (pun intended) owes it to himself to go deep in this slam. He’s in good form and the conditions suit him.
How’s your fantasy team looking?
I’m conflicted on who to give the triple ball chip to and if I should bring in Fritz or stick with Shelton haha.