Sinner vs Zverev: AO Final Recap

middle backhands — transition game — deep returns — clutch serving

Jannik Sinner defeated Alexander Zverev 6/3 7/6 6/3 in the final of the Australian Open on Sunday to successfully defend his title for his third overall major.

First Set

This match was always going to be about the forehands. It is no secret that the Zverev forehand has been a clear weakness in the German’s game since he first came on tour, and Sinner was looking to target it early. Back when I started this newsletter I wrote an essay questioning whether the technique of the Zverev forehand was to blame. Tonight is simply another data point in support of that. From my preview:

Zverev’s forehand is neither a powerful weapon or a trusty shield in big matches, and my thesis is that this is technically driven. He’s got more moving parts and less racquet speed than someone like Sinner. At the top end of the game, that’s like having a smaller engine with the screws half-out. At some point it’s going to break.

In the Italian’s opening service game he made his intentions clear, drawing three forehand errors from Zverev on return and in rallies. However, you could also see in the early baseline trades how Sinner was happy to trade backhands, but he was keeping the exchanges tighter to the middle of the court, starving Zverev’s backhand of width, and also making it easier for Sinner to change direction into a forehand battle. That was a clear tactical theme from this match. Much has been said of how well Sinner can spread the court with more angled and heavier backhands. His discipline through more central corridors was a subtle adjustment tonight, and he relied on his heavier crosscourt forehand to do the width damage into the German’s forehand when available.

Look how Zverev runs around his forehand to take the backhand from the middle.

When you watch Zverev closely you realise how forehand averse he is in all facets of the game. Even on second serve returns, he often will opt to run around his forehand and hit a backhand; he doesn’t see his forehand as a weapon.

But the German does see his backhand as a weapon, and he saved the first of two break points with another run-around backhand off the back of a big first serve:

Medvedev is another who will run around a forehand to hit a flat backhand.

Zverev served his way out of trouble at 1-2, but serving at 3-4 Sinner made a return adjustment, starting deeper in the court in a move we have seen here in last year’s final against Medvedev, and against Fritz in last year’s US Open final. It would earn him two break points again, which were both snuffed out in similar fashion to the first two: a first serve and off-backhand combo on the first, and a wide unreturned serve on the second. On another deuce point Zverev reached back and rocketed a 218km/h second serve to stave off the long and aggressive Sinner.

Sinner has the firepower and movement to return from deep positions and produce favourable outcomes immediately.

In fact, Zverev made five first serves on the first five break points he saved. He made his first serve on the sixth also, but Sinner got it back, and while Zverev gained the upper hand in the rally, a tentative approach shot handed Sinner an easy first break:

You simply cannot hit a rally ball approach to Sinner’s forehand and expect to get away with it. Straight into the wheelhouse. Batting practice.

Of course, now down 3-5, Zverev opened the shoulders on the forehand, hitting a 170 km/h crosscourt bullet, only for Sinner to slide out and fend it off down the line:

That looks familiar.

Sinner would seal the first set with his third ace. Worryingly for the German, despite an 81% first-serve percentage, Zverev still had to face six break points, and only won 62% of his first-serve points.

"Sinner is very similar to Novak when he was at his best. They barely miss and they make you feel like you have to overhit every time to win a rally against them. They are constantly on the ball, not giving you any space or time."

— Zverev

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Second Set

Sinner had an opening on the Zverev serve early in the second set at 1-1. At 0-30 the Italian minced a backhand up the line, which Zverev did well to swat back high and deep. Sinner’s subsequent forehand caught the top of the tape and fell down on his side.

Look how deep Zverev goes back, even on a no pace ball that Sinner has from behind the baseline. The firepower threat from the Italian is a real boon to his touch game.

Zverev was lucky to escape with a hold from this game. He kissed the line on a mistimed overhead at 30-40, and hit a framed forehand that produced an angle that eventually won him the hold.

At 2-3 we got Sinner’s first drop shot of the match, a forehand, that caught Zverev off guard attempting to deal with the constant flamethrowers the Italian was dealing:

Sinner is well inside the baseline to play this one, making it easier to execute and giving Zverev less time to chase down the shot.

Around this stage in the match we also got a rally length stat:

An excerpt from my preview:

Note how Sinner is also ~5% better in the 9+ rally length on serve compared to Zverev. There’s not many points in a match that make up the 9+ stat, but keep an eye on that one tomorrow.

As it turned out there were quite a few longer rallies in this matchup, and it was heavily favouring Sinner. That stat got no better for Zverev at the beginning of the 3-4 game, approaching on a Sinner slice into the forehand, and getting passed on the 17th shot of the rally:

Sinner is a little unusual in that he nearly always slices his backhand open-stanced on his left leg, unlike more traditional slicers (like Alcaraz) who turn their back to the opponent to slice on the right leg. Zverev again just doesn’t do enough with this approach; you can’t approach the best hardcourt forehand in the world on something that isn’t elite.

Zverev would hold there though, and with Sinner serving to stay in the set at 4-5 the German created a little opening at 0-30. Sinner, as he has done so often lately, found three first serves to steady the ship. It reminded me of an excerpt from the recent Sinner/Djokovic Shanghai match:

Sinner leads the tour in service points won and break points saved, and it’s not just because he has the best forehand and backhand combo on tour; the serve is now a genuine weapon that gets him out of trouble, as it did when serving at 4-5.

At 5-6 Sinner again was under pressure at 30-30 after a botched forehand drop shot. He didn’t waste anytime getting some practice on it, deploying it the very next point in what was one of the best of the match. Check it out:

Sinner held to take us to a tiebreak. The Italian had won 15 of his last 17 tiebreakers.

Zverev started promisingly, lacing a forehand down the line to go up 1-0. He earned a mini-break to go up 2-1 and then again tried to be aggressive with the forehand, missing long by a small margin on an inside-in ball. Last year in my Paris Masters recap (which Zverev won with an impressive forehand showing) I noted:

While the forehand has improved, it’s hard to really know how good it is unless we are deep in an important slam match. Then we will know where confidence ends and competence starts.

2-2 in the second set tiebreaker of the Australian Open final was when we found out.

Look how tentative Sasha is with the forehands. Courier and Woodbridge were commenting on how Zverev’s weight is always going backwards compared to Sinner. It’s hard to tell if the weight is the cause, or the effect of simply not having trust in timing the ball well with his mechanics.

But Sasha rallied well on the next point, and it was Sinner who’s forehand caught the frame, sailing wide to change ends at three a piece.

At 4-4 Sinner got a timely let cord to go his way:

Many will point to that as a stroke of good luck that changed the tide of the match, but I see it as fortune favouring the brave. Plus, Sinner got incredibly unlucky way back in the 1-1 game of this set where he could have broken Zverev. Anyway, in true Sinner fashion he served another unreturnable on the next point to go up 6-4, and then didn’t blink on the serve plus-one forehand. He has the best first-serve stats largely because he has the best groundstrokes.

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Third Set

Zverev opened the shoulders at the start of the third on Sinner’s serve, unloading on a forehand. He also tried to approach from this backhand, which he had no business doing. He was too deep and Sinner wasn’t out of position at all. It was another example of where the Zverev game had let him down in this match. The transition element was sorely lacking tonight: meek approaches; missed volleys; and poor shot selection in this case.

Perhaps he could be forgiven for upping the aggression, as his long rally stats were becoming increasingly ugly. Sinner would end up dominating the 9+ rally by a staggering 29 to 14.

Of course, Sinner wasn’t too shabby in the shorter rally lengths. In fact, when Sinner was serving he won 39-5 in the 0-4 shot category. Zverev simply failed to apply pressure on Sinner’s second serve. Too often Zverev’s mentality is to find a backhand on return and then counterpunch. But Sinner can counterpunch with the best of them now, and he’s always had 0-4 dynamite:

Mark Petchey, thinking out loud on what Sasha could do: “do you think he could crush and rush?”

I don’t think he has that in the bag. If he stands up closer to the baseline his forehand return is so rush-able.

Sinner doesn’t often crush-and-rush either, though. But when he returns from the deep there is real intent in his swings and movement. Look at the aggression in this first backhand, and how quickly he steals ground so he can take Zverev’s short forehand just behind the baseline. He’s wrestled advantage in the point with one swing of the racquet from six metres behind the baseline.

Sinner would break in this game to surge ahead 4-2. This game would get dicey again, going to 30-30 and deuce, but every time Sinner got tight on the scoreline he would find a first serve; an ace, an unreturnable, an easier plus-one. His serve is clutch.

At 5-3 Sinner maybe got a little tight, sailing his first forehand long for 0-15. Zverev got a good chunk on the first serve return. Zverev has a small opening. But his forehand does this:

“That’s not going to trouble Jannik Sinner” — Petchey

15-15 Sinner goes ace.

At 30-30 Zverev again gets a look on another second serve. Sinner rolls his second serve wide into the Zverev forehand, and hits every ball with margin into the Zverev forehand, save for one middle ball that the German hits as a backhand. Zverev still doesn’t take a chance here and rip it. This was another moment; a glimpse into the reality of this matchup. Whenever Sinner needed to breath, he could hit to the Sasha forehand. Zverev, despite being down two sets and a break, remained in counterpunching mode. There are simply no teeth to this forehand in big moments. He missed the fifth forehand wide down the line.

Sinner hit his sixth (I believe) forehand drop shot on match point (went 4/6 on the forehand drop shot). Not very well, but well enough given how deep Sasha was.

This quote from Zverev’s presser summed it up:

“Jannik Sinner is a better player than me at the moment. I serve better than him. He does everything else better than me. Best player in the world on hardcourt right now. As simple as that.”

Must feel good hearing that from the man just behind you in the rankings.

That concludes the AO coverage, but I’ll see you in the comments. HC.