24 Comments

this has got to be the only sport on the planet where the primary object of the game is the product of unregulated manufacturing. nuts.

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Hey Hugh, great read and congrats on the growing success. Would be keen for you to compare Sinner’s BH and how it fits in compared to Korda and Djokovic’s backhand from that article and is it a “control” BH or a different kind? Thanks!

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I second this. Would love to read some in-depth analysis.

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I guess if the PTPA actually wants to make itself *really* popular then “get the balls back to pre-Covid standards” would be a great rallying cry. People would sign up for that.

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Hey Hugh! Because I'm a diehard Novak fan and because of recent comments made by Ruud where he compares Novak and Sinner (and also because everyone is comparing them), I'm wondering if I can ask you a question about Novak here.

I've always wondered why Novak didn't more consistently hit a "heavier" shot with more pace throughout his career. I always remarked to myself that he would have been perfect if he had more pace to his shots and that he sometimes came off as underpowered or sterile to me. Especially in some of the French Open finals and when going up against the likes of Wawrinka or Thiem. When I remarked similar thoughts to people in the past they would typically flippantly say that he simply didn't need more pace, that he was more focused on percentage Tennis, and that he must be doing something right if he has so many grand slams.

Well... Now Sinner is being compared to him regularly and being marked as the superior evolution of Novak because of the shot weight factor.

Looking at early career footage from 2008-2010 and at a lot of his matches from 2011 and 2023 for example, you can see he could generate quite a bit of pace if he wanted to, case in point him outhitting both Alcaraz and Sinner last year at the ATP Finals off the Forehand wing if I remember the Tennis Insights numbers correctly.

Why didn't he make having a heavier shot a more regular thing in his game? Was he simply limited physique/technique wise or does it seem it's more something that he could have achieved by changing things he had control over?

Thanks for the articles and your contributions!

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I think he just backed his movement and had a lot of success playing that percentage version of tennis. He was (and still is) capable of hitting a pretty hard flat ball, but he never really had the dynamism in the forecourt of a Fedal or Sincaraz. When you have so much success doing something a certain way (i.e., dominating everyone) it's hard to change that. I think the general trend of the last 5 years or so has just been to lighter racquets and players taking huge cuts at the ball, so in general the game is faster, and the best young players are reflecting that.

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Another really insightful piece Hugh! The Sinner BH/lefty FH comp makes a lot of sense. Topping off the ground game with the serving performance he had makes him borderline unplayable. You might have seen the other 2nd serve return graphic we showed for Sinner in the semi final - showing how he was considerably more aggressive than the rest of the top 8. But then picking his moments to drop back and instill doubt proved a nightmare for Fritz. Intrigued to see how Fritz approaches their meetings next year!

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Do you think there is something about Sinner's technique or equipment (see James Blake on string tension: https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/41111494/us-open-2024-jannik-sinner-forehand-unique) that allows him to generate more power with these new balls vs. the old balls? Or would he hit even harder with the old balls?

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Well I don't think there is something technically different that he does that others can't/aren't doing. I mean, a couple things standout for me. 1) He's a tall guy, so he has long levers to start with. 2) He creates a lot of racquet speed by using a large flip, and by also using his coil and body weight transfer really well (he gets on the front foot so often). 3) perhaps most importantly, he has so much control over the swing that he has the feeling of confidence to swing out on it. A lot of pros could hit the ball much harder than their tour average, but they would miss more. Sinner has such control with his forehand that he can afford/feels able to really attack the ball and still control it.

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Hello Hugh,

I dropped you a message about stroke analysis. Please let me know what you think.

Thanks.

Jim

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Wow - 70-6, I believe that was Novak's record during his breakout year in 2011. Hopefully Sinner stays healthy, he could have Federer-like records from his mid-2000 years.

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Great analysis! You are officially my last link to modem pro men’s tennis. They all look like clones with very slight differences. The tennis might be better but it’s boring. My only hope is that an elite lefty and/or truly attacking player appears that pops the bubble,

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After their semi-final match, both Z and Fritz commented on Fritz's improved forehand, and to me it looks to be more of a reliable weapon lately. Any insight into specific changes Taylor might have made during the Fall season?

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I think Fritz has just maximized his movement and physicality and is getting clear on his game style and is confident. Forehand looks exactly the same from last year to me.

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Congrats on the Jim Courier news! That's awesome.

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Great analysis as always! I really like the lefty FH comparison for Sinner's BH - I remember him saying somewhere that he probably uses his left arm a bit more than his right one for his BH. On the other hand I remember Fritz being one of the best two-handers at hitting one-handed BHs in a past ATP challenge, so he's probably on the opposite side of the spectrum.

As for your second footnote: if I recall correctly it was Sinner who said (in a recent ATP paired interview) that Carlos' nickname in the locker room is "beast", not the other way around. Meanwhile Carlos said that Jannik's nickname is "carrot" (sigh). And Ruud specifically said that Jannik does *not* look like a bodybuilder, so...

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Oh I hadn't seen that! Guess they both call each other beast then lol

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i swear I heard Carlos use the word beast at Six Kings or Beijing...anyway

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In the first set of this final, I noticed a revealing stat:

+ TF return game vs JS up to 4-5 (JS’s first 4 return games): win 1/16 point (40-0, 40-15, 40-0, 40-0)

+ TF return game vs JS at 4-5 (JS serving for the set): win 4/10 incl. one break point (his only oppportunity in the match)

When TF said in his post-match presser that he needs to "get a little quicker off the split-step", I rewatched all the split-steps TF did in this final and the USO F. TF’s split step for return varies between a 1 (first foot) - 2 (other foot) - hop (when the "split-stepping" happens) or 1-2-hop-hop (jump twice). TF doesn’t use strictly one or the other but he uses 1-2-hop-hop more. 1-2-hop I observe more on (but not exclusive to) the second serve return.

In this 4-5 game, TF used (and timed very well) the 1-2-hop on a lot of points. Maybe part of it is due to JS' nerves when closing out the first set, but I also think it's no pure coincidence that TF best return game happens in the game he used the 1-2-hop pattern more. He was aced twice(?) and had awkward body return twice, but his timing was better in-sync with JS serve rythm, get him more neutral into the point, and allow him to have competitive rallies with JS (which are the trade-offs of this 1-2 hop [I think from my personal experience returning this way in matches]).

In the 10 points TF played (win 4 lost 6) in JS’s 5-4 service game closing out the 1st set, the distribution is as follows:

+ TF lost 3 points returning with 1-2-hop-hop (incl. the break point opp. he worked hard for)

+ TF lost 3 points returning with 1-2-hop.

+ TF won all 4 points returning with 1-2-hop.

⇒ I suspect TF feels more comfortable with the 1-2-hop-hop (after all he reverted to this return pattern after working so hard to get the only break point opportunity using the other pattern). Hence he says he needs to get “more explosive and quicker off the split-step”. Maybe "quicker" means he wants to get the second hop in before contact as well. I do observe that sometimes TF's hops (i.e. when the "split-stepping" happens) can be a little earlier than JS [making contact on the serve] hence TF has to do another hop (or maybe that is TF's intention to get more explosiveness Idk??] but then this second one ends up a little too later.

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Here's how you fix the ball quality issue:

Name 3 official balls for the tour. one for outdoor hard, clay and indoor. And that's it for 5 years when the products come under review for renewal. also insert quality standards for the balls during the term of the contract with major financial penalties.

the tour needs to stop letting the ball manufacturers dictate through absurd sponsorship deals and flip the table.

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Th thing is, the ITF already allegedly does random testing of balls, with penalty points if balls fail to meet standard.

https://www.itftennis.com/en/about-us/tennis-tech/approved-balls/

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ATP/WTA penalties could work for smaller events, but the majors hold too much power and like having their deals with whatever ball manufacturer they've used in the past. Penalties are also unlikely because everyone involved just wants to make MORE money. Quality standardization that is informed by the Players' council/etc is probably the best move.

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So basically because tennis is a fractured entity, the sport has no real leverage to make quality demands.

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