Roland Garros Update

appropriately hyped — one slam slam — predictions?

A new men’s grand slam singles champion will emerge on Sunday.

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Fonseca Arrives

Turns out the “overhyped” Joao Fonseca was hyped just the right amount, as he stormed back from two sets down against 24-major champion Novak Djokovic in the third-round on Friday. Yes, Novak lost his legs down the stretch, but at times that didn’t even matter, because Fonseca’s forehand and serve found it’s mark — and its mach — when he needed it most. The break point late in the fourth featured a 186 km/h second serve into a fearless forehand:

Don’t have the numbers but gotta be 100+ mph.

Why does that look familiar?

Robbie Koenig recounted what Fonseca told reported once about his game style: “when I was younger, it was always my thing to hit it hard, mostly on the important points, when a little bit of pressure comes on.”

There is no defense for unconscious firepower of this sort, you just have to pray Fonseca misses when he does it against you.

What was also of note to me is just how important that Fonseca backhand line/middle was for trafficking more balls into his forehand, where he can unload at speeds that render opponent anticipation and movement irrelevant:

Fonseca averages 34% with his backhand down-the-line, which is a full 10% higher than the tour average. Data courtesy of TennisViz and Courtside Advantage.

“This is looney tunes. Him [Fonseca] regularly hitting forehands 111, 113 mph… I mean, Novak is especially good with shading and putting himself in the court, to anticipate where the balls going, to know based on his ball flight where the most likely place that they can put it safely is, and he got stood up 20 or 25 times in this match, where it was in the flow of the rally and Fonseca just lit one up, and Novak was just still. And it wasn’t because he wasn’t trying to run for balls or manage his energy.”

— Andy Roddick’s Served

Other areas that proved pivotal:

• Fonseca’s nasty kick-serve was getting Djokovic in very uncomfortable return positions — high and wide — and it reminded me of how well Jodar handled that shot in Madrid.

• Down the stretch it was the Brazilian who used the drop shot off the back of his blistering pace, whereas the opening sets had seen Novak expose Fonseca with that shot more often.

• Fonseca has been criticised for his athleticism, but this was a step forward in speed and endurance (he came into this match off the back of another five-set win from two sets down against Dino Prizmic).

• Clutch serving in big moments. Three first serves around the 210 km/h mark from break point down at 6-5 in the fifth. The speed has been there for a while, but these were on a dime when he needed it most.

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One Slam Slam

Nine of the 16 third-round matches went the distance following the shock loss of Jannik Sinner in the second-round to Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Add in the Fonseca win over Djokovic, and Alcaraz’s injury absence, and many players took the court knowing that this edition would crown a new men’s grand slam champion. Asked if he was feeling the pressure, Frances Tiafoe was honest:

“100 percent, 100 percent. I came out tight as hell today. God. And this is the reality, man. It’s fun to be a part of, man. I was telling some of my homies: it’s fun to be part of, man. You’re part of history, however you want to look at it. Whether you get it done or not, you’re part of history, and it’s just fun to be a part of.”

— Ben Rothenberg for Bounces

There’s a huge amount of pressure on the remaining seeds, and a serious pinch of belief in the non-seeded survivors.

• World number #85 Zachary Svajda is into the fourth-round having felled #25 seeded Francisco Cerundolo in five sets.

• #106 Jesper de Jong joins him, overcoming #13 seeded Karen Khachanov in five sets.

• #115 Jamie Faria pushed #19 seeded Tiafoe to five sets.

• #102 Francisco Comesana and #105 Berrettini played a nail-biting five setter (15-13 in the final set tie-breaker!).

• #50 JM Cerundolo outlasted #69 Martin Landaluce in a fifth-set tiebreaker over 6 hours.

In last week’s mailbag I spoke of this being a “weakened era” more than a weak era, because in my mind, the four other youngsters of their cohort who had the best chance to challenge them were all injured and missing: Fils, Rune, Draper, and Musetti. These were the four players who last year would have loved this opportunity but through Achilles tears and bone bruises and hip strains have been sidelined right when the gap opened.

The Australian Open had a “one point slam” before the tournament started this year. It pitted amateurs against pros, with one point deciding the winner, and a million dollars on the line for the champion. An amateur won the title, and we saw Sinner fault, Amanda Anisimova miss the return, and Pedro Martinez spray a rally backhand against Jordan Smith, in a riveting display of what pressure does when dialed to 11.

Well this Roland Garros has now become a “one slam slam” for those still alive: a once in a lifetime opportunity where only two men from the top 10 remain (FAA and Zverev). Zverev is the heavy favourite on paper given his history and form this year, but off paper there are plenty of doubts around how he will meet the moment. It’s a favourable draw and his to lose, and that must be torture, made all the worse by how early Sinner lost. It’s 10 restless nights, should the German reach the final.

So, what are my predictions from here?

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Draw Prediction

It’s easy to get caught up in the “anyone can win narrative!”. While that seems more true than ever, I still feel like if we zoom out and look at big or surprising runs, those players with form (match toughness, confidence) and class (high ceilings) tend to survive these situations. Five sets is painful, but also merciful to a missed opportunity or two. Using that framework I came to this:

In the quarterfinals I’ve got Berrettini vs Arnaldi, FAA vs Cobolli, Rublev vs Ruud, and Jodar vs Zverev.

In the semifinals I’ve got Berrettini vs Cobolli, and Ruud vs Zverev.

In the final I have Cobolli versus Ruud.

I have Ruud winning the title. The Norwegian is peaking (Rome final, Geneva run), has the serve and forehand-plus-one firepower to hit through slower second week conditions, and the experience of going deep in slams — and here at RG twice. It’s known on tour that he loves the Roland Garros Wilson ball (whereas the ATP clay events use the Dunlop), and while Fonseca is a huge danger, Fonseca’s legs might be a question mark after back-to-back five setters, not to mention the emotional toll of how big his last 48 hours have been.

Why I didn’t choose Zverev? I think the emotional toll of carrying the “don’t fumble this one!” opportunity for 10 days will be difficult. It’s one thing to be crowned favourite after your nemesis loses in the quarters or semis, but it’s another thing to carry that burden for over a week. A lot of restless nights, a lot of anxious points. Especially if he finds himself in a projected quarterfinal with a big hitter like Jodar, or a semi against Ruud/Fonseca/Rublev, or even Mensik with his serve; how’s he going to handle that moment? Will he get tentative? Should he come through everything, it will be a pretty big mental feat considering his scar tissue and history of what happens to him when playing with pressure deep in slams. Hats off if he does it.

Why I didn’t choose Jodar? He’s the other betting favourite behind Zverev and Ruud. Despite his excellent clay season and overall very high ceiling, he’s still an unknown quantity in terms of his fitness. By all accounts he’s got a head to match his shoulders, and I think cooler conditions will suit his aggressive style, but at times the legs have looked shaky (versus Fils in Barcelona) and this tournament tests your legs like no other. This week we find out where he’s at.

How’s everyone’s ATP Fantasy doing in this carnage? I’ve come through pretty well all things considered:

Let’s see how it shakes out. See you in the comments. HC.

*Final side note: no spoilers but the Rafa documentary on Netflix is great.