Roland Garros Draw Preview

bracket challenge — conditions — quarter picks — upsets

Roland Garros gets underway on Sunday. Carlos Alcaraz is the defending champion and number 2 seed this year.

Alcaraz is the bookies favourite to go back-to-back in 2025.

Order of Play - Day 1

A subscriber messaged me on Twitter recently (Hi Barron) with this very cool tennis prediction draw site he’s been working on called bracket.tennis. I’ve filled out a complete Roland Garros draw here. Each round you make a fresh set of picks with the players who won. Personally I think this draw looks pretty good — we’ve got flags for the players, seeds, and an intuitive scroll where you don’t get lost in the draw by virtue of these little tethered lines that link each round. There’s a leaderboard and everything. This is my first time filling out a complete bracket and I’ll try and keep up during the event at the start of each round.

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Conditions

Roland Garros uses a Wilson ball, rather than the ATP Dunlop ball that is used for the Masters clay events leading up to Roland Garros. I’ve heard certain players prefer this Wilson ball (e.g., Ruud) and maybe it plays a little heavier compared to the Dunlop. Data from the last three years has Roland Garros playing similar to Rome, which has always been a good litmus test as it is both close to the event date, and similar in speed. This spreadsheet (which I cut-off for readability) is from tennisedge.io:

The relevant numbers are: 1st-serve points won / service hold % / aces per game / tiebreaks per set / altitude (metres)

Some slightly cooler temps and showers are expected for the opening couple of rounds. I think this helps the big hitters marginally, who have enough oomph to hit through slower conditions, and I think it hurts guys who maybe hit a little flatter with compact strokes.

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First Quarter

Sinner def. Draper

Sinner looked good in Rome following his three month suspension. Draper’s clay transition has been very promising. Hurkacz has found form the last few weeks (runner up in Geneva) but takes on Fonseca first up. De Minaur has been holding his seed every tournament it seems, but I think Djere is a big threat. Mensik will have his work cut out against local grinder in Muller. Ditto Fils, although Jarry is less a grinder and more a serve-plus-one guy. Fokina with a nice opener.

Seeds Upset:

• Feeling it: Djere def. de Minaur

• Maybe? Muller def. Mensik

Quality Qualifier: Nikoloz Basilashvili is a huge hitter and former top-20. Dangerous guy to play on clay with three wins under the belt.

First-Round Match: A couple to watch here: Jarry vs Fils; Hurkacz vs Fonseca; Djere vs de Minaur; Muller vs Mensik.

Dark Horses: From the top half Nico Jarry is a dangerous first-round for Fils. The tall Chilean has clay-giant-killing pedigree, although is not in great form. From the bottom half I’m going to buck the trend of picking Fonseca given Hubi’s form recently, and go with Laslo Djere. Clay is the Serb’s best surface and he’s 17-5 on clay courts this season. Plus, if conditions are heavy it might tip the odds in Djere’s favour.

Almost went with…de Minaur. I think the first round is a huge match for the Aussie. Get through that and he should like his chances to make the second week.

Toughest Draw? Fils. Opens against dangerous Chilean Nico Jarry, and has an unusually lowly-seeded Rublev (who is finding some form in Hamburg as we speak) as a third-round seed in his section.

Getting ahead of myself: A Sinner/Fils fourth-round would be a thunderous atmosphere with some huge hitting. I think if Fils can sink his teeth into the first week here and reach a Sinner match he would be a very dangerous opponent.

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Second Quarter

Cerundolo def. Djokovic

Zverev struggling outside of Munich. Ditto Djokovic outside of Geneva, which he won today (title 100) in a third-set buster. Shapovalov’s clay season was pretty lean, as was Ugo Humbert’s. Medvedev is a 10-15 guy at the moment, and his seed is starting to reflect that; gone are his top-5 days it seems. Cerundolo has been a standout performer the last three months. FAA found some clay form in Hamburg (lost to Rublev in the semis) after a string of early upsets. Dimitrov is a fitness question mark in slams.

Seeds Upset:

• Feeling it: Arnaldi def. FAA

• Maybe? O’Connell def. Humbert

Quality Qualifier: Ethan Quinn is a young American with a big Nextgen forehand. Also a couple of Lucky Losers with potential in Cilic and Shevchenko.

First Round Matches: A lot to like here. Medvedev owns a dominant 4-0 record against Norrie, but the Brit made a run in Geneva; Cilic vs Cobolli in a battle of two in-form guys. Quinn vs Dimitrov could get interesting given the Americans firepower. Humbert is not the same player on clay, and O’Connell will like his chances. Arnaldi is a dangerous unseeded player to face first-up, and FAA only recently got some match wins again after a lean clay season (which was a surprise given his hot start to the year). Martinez will turn up and have his fate largely decided by Shapovalov, who has the power to hit through a cooler, slower opening round, but does he have the temperament?

Dark Horses: From the top half I was tempted by Cobolli and Cilic. They square off in round 1, and I like both as dark horses. Cilic is tempting given he’s got three matches under the belt already courtesy of qualifying. He’ll carry that “nothing to lose” mentality as a Lucky Loser, and has the experience at 36 years of age. But that same experience probably hurts his chances to go deep in best-of-five. I think the big man is capable to win one or two, but I don’t trust the body holding up. Cobolli will be coming from a Hamburg title. Confident? Certainly. Adjusted to Paris? Let’s see. So in the end I’ll take Arnaldi. He opens against FAA, but in slower conditions I think the Canadian’s serve will be softened. From the bottom section I think Norrie is a worthy pick given his clay prowess. He’s got a poor record vs Medvedev (and lost in straight sets as recently as Rome), but he picked up some wins in Geneva and certainly won’t be hit off the court in a cool opening round.

Almost went with… Zverev. Obviously. His RG record is excellent, and his opening couple of rounds are pretty good on paper. I just don’t know if all those recent losses can be chalked up to simply “pressure of getting the world number 1 ranking”. Plus there are guys in his section who are always willing to shoot their shot, and Zverev’s style will let them: Arnaldi? Cobolli? Cilic? FAA? Here’s my wild pick of the draw: De Jong as a sneaky second-round upset.

Toughest Draw? FAA. Arnaldi is one of the best unseeded guys out there. Then either Cilic or Cobolli, who both have clay pedigree and form. Then a projected third-round with Zverev.

Getting ahead of myself: A Medvedev vs Djokovic fourth round would be interesting for the pure fact of their history. Both now shadows of their former peaks (at least in terms of consistency), it would still be a cagey and tense match.

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Third Quarter

Musetti def. Altmaier

Fritz has struggled for form with the abdominal injury. Musetti is the third-best player in the world on clay. The American contingent: Michelsen, Korda, Tiafoe, and Nakashima haven’t shown anything super promising this Euro clay swing, but all have winnable first-rounds. Rune opens against Spanish veteran RBA in tough opening test. Machac is a good player with a terrible injury/illness record of late.

Seeds Upset:

• Feeling it: Navone def. Nakashima; Darderi def. Korda

• Maybe? Altmaier def. Fritz

Quality Qualifier: Non.

First Round Matches: Rune vs RBA could be a battle. Ditto Altmaier vs Fritz. For the outer court hipsters I like PCB vs Comesana.

Dark Horses: Navone is a proper clay-courter, and I think he’ll get the better of Nakashima’s game in these return-friendly conditions. From the bottom section I’ve gone with Daniel Altmaier. I think Fritz is pretty vulnerable right now, and I like this matchup for Altmaier. The’ve never played before, but slow clay is the German’s best surface, and his record at RG is very good considering his rank; he’s always taken some stopping. There’s many other guys to keep an eye on in this section: Hamad Medjedovic has a nuclear forehand (and temperament). Comesana. Darderi. PCB.

Almost went with…Fritz. The draw is pretty good in terms of seeds in his section, and I assume he’s relatively healthy as he’s here and he’s been playing. But clay is not his best surface, despite the results and strides he’s made in recent years.

Toughest Draw? Korda. Darderi won the Grand Prix in Morocco at the start of the clay swing. Faria is a quality clay-courter from Portugal, and Brooksby is a tricky player who won in Houston.

Getting ahead of myself: Give me Rune vs Musetti. Neither guy with stopping power off the ground, but enough off both wings to be threatening all over the court. Great athleticism from both, plenty of variation from both, and you just know there would be some long rallies on big points whenever Holger engaged counterpuncher mode.

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Fourth Quarter

Alcaraz def. Ruud

Alcaraz is the best on clay right now. Ruud always comes alive just in time for Paris, plus he likes the Wilson ball. GMP has been struggling outside of a Challenger recently, but playing at home should help. Shelton made a deep run in Munich but is still learning the ropes on clay. Paul is the standout American for the moment and has a dangerous opener. Khachanov is the AK-47 of men’s tennis: reliable everywhere, incredible nowhere. I did a deep dive on Tsitsipas’ backhand recently, and the Greek arrives this year with no clay titles. Popyrin’s Montreal title is doing a lot of heavy-lifting for that 25th seeding, but the Aussie is capable on clay.

Seeds Upset:

• Feeling it: Non

• Maybe? Sonego def. Shelton

Quality Qualifier: Elmer Moller can smack a backhand. He’s got a Robin Soderling-esque large forehand swing and is coincidentally sponsored by the former French Open Finalist’s titular tennis brand ‘RS’.

First Round Matches: Moller vs Paul

Dark Horses: Sebastian Ofner came back from injury this clay season and has played 11 matches in May (6 last week in Geneva). From the bottom half, Fabian Marozsan is lurking down there as a possible round two opponent for Alcaraz. Marozsan famously beat Alcaraz at Rome in 2023 with a devastating combo of forehands and drop shots (sound familiar?).

Almost went with…Tommy Paul. Semis in Rome again. The movement and variation of his game helps him problem solve so many styles, and he’s at the peak of his powers, but I don’t know if he has the weaponry to make deep runs in best-of-five clay.

Toughest Draw? Paul. Opens against the big backhand of Moller, and has quality lurking in his section: Fucsovics, Struff, Ofner, and Khachanov are all class players.

Getting ahead of myself: Marozsan against Alcaraz in round 2 could be a heater if the Hungarian gets out of the blocks fast.

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I’ve got Alcaraz and Sinner meeting in the final in a rematch of Rome. I think both guys would be bitterly disappointed with anything less. I’m leaning Alcaraz given his clay edge. You can check out my full draw at the bracket.tennis site that I’ll link again here.

See you in the comments. HC.