cash flow is excellent and no one is happy — Defyant Draper, but not really — ball changes — Lilli Tagger — Nadal's return of serve — Grok says I'm a 9/10
First off, congratulations on the birth of your second child! What a wonderful time it must be for you. And thank you for always finding the time to share your insights.
Thanks a lot for picking my question for your mailbag and for giving a bit of exposure to my growing channel.
I actually came to the same conclusion in this article I wrote. Nadal might give great servers more opportunities to find favorable +1 shots but ultimately he's asking the question: can you sustain that +1 efficiency over a 4-hour match when he's going to chase down every single ball?
Anyway, it was another great read. I can't wait to see Carlos back on tour—his recent practice footage looked really promising!
I'm so glad you wrote about Lilli Tagger! I've been following her progress for a while now. I didn't realize how tall she was (listed at 6'1") -- that's Maria Sharapova territory. There are still a few women OHBH's on tour, like Tatiana Maria and Viktorija Golubic, but they are on the back end of their careers. Tagger's got Schiavone coaching her, so I have hope she'll go far. Fingers crossed she can do some damage at USO.
From your earlier piece on Tsitsipas' backhand and its woes: "The problem with Tsitsipas’ backhand isn’t that it’s a one-hander—it’s that it’s a compromised one."
Having just watched him vs De Minaur in Washington, live, and trying hard to see/understand just why his backhand is what it is, this is my take:
A) He has a double pump take back. His intial start to the stroke (the unit turn plus, if you will) leaves his racquet only 1/3 of the way into his backswing. Then, when he deems it time, he continues his backswing and lashes out forwards. Far too often he re-starts far too late; when he re-starts is when a better backhand is beginning its forward motion, not back and *then* forwards.
B) As you suggest, he doesn't really coil very much. Not only is the take back not as "deep" as the greats you cite, but his timing/technique never lets him get his back into the production. One model we were taught as juniors was Laver's backhand, and that we should aim to get our backs turned towards the incoming ball as much as we could.
C) Me, I'd say his arm and elbow stay too far away from his body, at least for too long (see A, above). As such, his backhand is too often all arm, which is to say, weak.
Having said all that, imo it's worth saying that Tsitsipas *can* hit his backhand well, even with slice. I saw some lovely, well struck underspin backhands, even some that were chip-like. One doesn't get as far as he has (in the past, admittedly) with *horribly* flawed technique. But the fundamental weaknesses of his backhand production have made it so that side is now a target.
a) yeah he has a bit of that. I think that's the body realising there's just no runway from his initial setup
b) I think the footwork, where he always steps down the court, is related to the setup/the lack of slot.
c) It's a left arm problem. You can't flare the left arm if you keep the hitting arm low. You'd have to push the hitting elbow/arm way out like a shapo to make that work
Congratulations on the second boy! Not yet in Federer territory where their two sets of twins aim to sew up the boys, girls and mixed doubles, but give it time.
All fascinating but mind absolutely blown by that Medvedev GIF. The weird things players do and it’s completely reflexive!
Great article as always. Where does one get a Prince Synergy 98? I’ve been searching for it for a while but can’t seem to find any store that’s selling it.
Ground passes are actually only 20$ in Montreal !! But it’s just as you said : first rounds are challenger like, second rounds are the seeds vs lower ranked players, and by the third round most of the fun matches are only on center court. I really wish we could go back to 7 days masters, but it seems unlikely without a strong player union.
ah, that Prince CTS beam, I personally love the feel of their older frames. Still have a Precision Response (Pat Rafter's frame iirc) just for some casual hitting with juniors.
The 12 day Masters do play a part in terms of why the top players sometimes skip them. But remember that Djokovic hasn't played in Canada since 2018. Canada unfortunately has bad timing, even when it was a 1 week tournament. It's right before Cincy, which is before the US Open. And then every 4 years it's right after the Olympics.
I'll be at the Montreal tourney on day 5, R32 matches, so there should be some good ones. As an American, maybe I'll see a countryman on centre court. That's the consolation since I can't watch the 3 kings. Although Shelton might not even be in the R32, the way he's returning. Also, Draper got a Montreal wildcard. I don't sports gamble at all, but I wonder if there's a bet out there somewhere that's like "Will Draper withdraw from x tourney?".
I don't like this movement towards serves being more and more dominant. A couple of days ago, a Redditor pointed out "Over the past year, only 8 male players (Alcaraz, Sinner, Navone, Jodar, Cerundolo, Medvedev, De Minaur, and Tien) are breaking serve at least 25% of the time. Just 5 years ago in 2021, 27 players hit that mark on return." https://www.reddit.com/r/tennis/comments/1v8b8qm/over_the_past_year_only_8_male_players_alcaraz/ . If there are going to be ball changes more often, then there are going to be more quick, boring points, with sets that end up in tiebreaks. Which, at least tiebreaks are exciting. But for me, the most exciting points are those that are 10+ shots, and now we're getting even more away from that. And who knows if the tournament directors would change up court speeds based on the ball change frequency.
I was having this discussion with someone else recently. I don't think late-stage Djokovic is a good example of players skipping Canada. I did some digging, and you can see that:
- Federer played Montreal in 04/06/07/08/09/10/11/14/17. Stopped attending regularly after hitting his 30s.
- Djokovic played in 07/08/09/10/11/12/13/14/15/16. First year missed was 17 when he had that elbow injury. Was also then in his 30s.
- Nadal played in 04/05/06/07/08/09/10/11/13/15/17/18/19. Again, he was more injured than the others (i.e, missed 2012 with knee injury and 14 with wrist) but still played 8 years in a row during his early prime.
Sinner has now skipped Canada the last two years in his early prime -- 23/24 yrs old.
The old schedule in these late 2000s/early 2010s was a month off after Wimbledon (if you made final, that is), and then a compressed Canada/Cincy (max 10 matches in 14 days for top seeds), then a week off before US Open.
In my opinion, that month + after Wimbledon gave enough time for rest + mini-training camp to strengthen the body down the home stretch of the season.
Players could also arrive in Montreal knowing that the US Swing would be over in ~1 month. Not the 40+ days it is now.
I forgot that Wimbledon used to be played a week earlier than what it has been. I think it was good to add some more space in between RG and Wimbledon. Players can spend 3 weeks on the grass before Wimbledon instead of 2. But, like with technique, there are always trade-offs.
Carlos hasn't played Canada since 2023. It would have been interesting to see what he would have decided for this year if he were 100% fit by July. Maybe he would have played Montreal this year to get more reps in after being injured since mid-April.
I think in general Jannik and Carlos are more selective with their schedules than previous top players, at the same age. Some of that is going to be exacerbated by the 12 day Masters. But they also see the long game when it comes to their health, being ready for the majors.
Regarding the more-frequent ball changes, I don't know if it increases serve dominance by that much. As Matthew Willis rightly points out in his tweet, newer balls also increase DF rates and lower 1st in percentages. You see that in effect during the US Swing, which uses lighter balls. If not serve dominance, I think they increase sloppy-play from the ground/increase UE rates, but some timing-based players might benefit.
I think faster balls and slower surfaces might be the right balance for encouraging more swashbuckling rallies without massive serve dominance. I'd have to read up on the bounce physics to confirm, but you can put your ball half a court deeper with a groundstroke than a serve, so the ball is traveling unambiguously faster for a much greater fraction of the trajectory if you play deep.
A few years ago, at tennisplayerDOTnet, Lindsey Lee Waters' husband and coach, Heath Waters, published a study showing the arrival times & speeds of groundstrokes that bounced shorter vs longer. I cannot recall the "short" distance from the baseline, or the "deep" measurement's proximity to the baseline, but for the sake of this description let's say it was 3' deep from the service line vs 2' from the baseline; as to speeds, I'll posit a 100 mph groundie vs a 75 mph stroke. (Both metric sets are simply examples, def not Waters' true numbers.)
Bottom line is that the slower ball, hit deeper, arrives faster since it doesn't lose momentum from hitting the court earlier, and thefore is more effective in rushing the opponent.
I'd say this is proof of what solid coaches have known for years, but only by the seat of their Lacoste shorts. : )
THANK YOU for not using AI in your writing. Trust me, it is noticeable!
Hi Hugh,
First off, congratulations on the birth of your second child! What a wonderful time it must be for you. And thank you for always finding the time to share your insights.
Thanks a lot for picking my question for your mailbag and for giving a bit of exposure to my growing channel.
I actually came to the same conclusion in this article I wrote. Nadal might give great servers more opportunities to find favorable +1 shots but ultimately he's asking the question: can you sustain that +1 efficiency over a 4-hour match when he's going to chase down every single ball?
Anyway, it was another great read. I can't wait to see Carlos back on tour—his recent practice footage looked really promising!
Cheers!
I'm so glad you wrote about Lilli Tagger! I've been following her progress for a while now. I didn't realize how tall she was (listed at 6'1") -- that's Maria Sharapova territory. There are still a few women OHBH's on tour, like Tatiana Maria and Viktorija Golubic, but they are on the back end of their careers. Tagger's got Schiavone coaching her, so I have hope she'll go far. Fingers crossed she can do some damage at USO.
All I can think about whenever the "Defyer" branding comes up:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKncY8Lgw5E
Bravo that you’re still responding while on paternity leave!
I like your notes on AI - it removes your voice. Keep up the great work.
From your earlier piece on Tsitsipas' backhand and its woes: "The problem with Tsitsipas’ backhand isn’t that it’s a one-hander—it’s that it’s a compromised one."
Having just watched him vs De Minaur in Washington, live, and trying hard to see/understand just why his backhand is what it is, this is my take:
A) He has a double pump take back. His intial start to the stroke (the unit turn plus, if you will) leaves his racquet only 1/3 of the way into his backswing. Then, when he deems it time, he continues his backswing and lashes out forwards. Far too often he re-starts far too late; when he re-starts is when a better backhand is beginning its forward motion, not back and *then* forwards.
B) As you suggest, he doesn't really coil very much. Not only is the take back not as "deep" as the greats you cite, but his timing/technique never lets him get his back into the production. One model we were taught as juniors was Laver's backhand, and that we should aim to get our backs turned towards the incoming ball as much as we could.
C) Me, I'd say his arm and elbow stay too far away from his body, at least for too long (see A, above). As such, his backhand is too often all arm, which is to say, weak.
Having said all that, imo it's worth saying that Tsitsipas *can* hit his backhand well, even with slice. I saw some lovely, well struck underspin backhands, even some that were chip-like. One doesn't get as far as he has (in the past, admittedly) with *horribly* flawed technique. But the fundamental weaknesses of his backhand production have made it so that side is now a target.
Thanks for this.
a) yeah he has a bit of that. I think that's the body realising there's just no runway from his initial setup
b) I think the footwork, where he always steps down the court, is related to the setup/the lack of slot.
c) It's a left arm problem. You can't flare the left arm if you keep the hitting arm low. You'd have to push the hitting elbow/arm way out like a shapo to make that work
Congratulations on the birth of your child!
HONORED to be included ☺️
Congratulations on the second boy! Not yet in Federer territory where their two sets of twins aim to sew up the boys, girls and mixed doubles, but give it time.
All fascinating but mind absolutely blown by that Medvedev GIF. The weird things players do and it’s completely reflexive!
Hi Hugh,
Nothing to point out in this good-as-ever piece, just congratulations on the birth of your second child!
Great article as always. Where does one get a Prince Synergy 98? I’ve been searching for it for a while but can’t seem to find any store that’s selling it.
I found mine on tennis warehouse some years back, but here in Canada you can get them from racquetguys for 130$
Sweet, will check it out. Thanks!
Ground passes are actually only 20$ in Montreal !! But it’s just as you said : first rounds are challenger like, second rounds are the seeds vs lower ranked players, and by the third round most of the fun matches are only on center court. I really wish we could go back to 7 days masters, but it seems unlikely without a strong player union.
ah, that Prince CTS beam, I personally love the feel of their older frames. Still have a Precision Response (Pat Rafter's frame iirc) just for some casual hitting with juniors.
Congrats on your 2nd child!
The 12 day Masters do play a part in terms of why the top players sometimes skip them. But remember that Djokovic hasn't played in Canada since 2018. Canada unfortunately has bad timing, even when it was a 1 week tournament. It's right before Cincy, which is before the US Open. And then every 4 years it's right after the Olympics.
I'll be at the Montreal tourney on day 5, R32 matches, so there should be some good ones. As an American, maybe I'll see a countryman on centre court. That's the consolation since I can't watch the 3 kings. Although Shelton might not even be in the R32, the way he's returning. Also, Draper got a Montreal wildcard. I don't sports gamble at all, but I wonder if there's a bet out there somewhere that's like "Will Draper withdraw from x tourney?".
I don't like this movement towards serves being more and more dominant. A couple of days ago, a Redditor pointed out "Over the past year, only 8 male players (Alcaraz, Sinner, Navone, Jodar, Cerundolo, Medvedev, De Minaur, and Tien) are breaking serve at least 25% of the time. Just 5 years ago in 2021, 27 players hit that mark on return." https://www.reddit.com/r/tennis/comments/1v8b8qm/over_the_past_year_only_8_male_players_alcaraz/ . If there are going to be ball changes more often, then there are going to be more quick, boring points, with sets that end up in tiebreaks. Which, at least tiebreaks are exciting. But for me, the most exciting points are those that are 10+ shots, and now we're getting even more away from that. And who knows if the tournament directors would change up court speeds based on the ball change frequency.
I was having this discussion with someone else recently. I don't think late-stage Djokovic is a good example of players skipping Canada. I did some digging, and you can see that:
- Federer played Montreal in 04/06/07/08/09/10/11/14/17. Stopped attending regularly after hitting his 30s.
- Djokovic played in 07/08/09/10/11/12/13/14/15/16. First year missed was 17 when he had that elbow injury. Was also then in his 30s.
- Nadal played in 04/05/06/07/08/09/10/11/13/15/17/18/19. Again, he was more injured than the others (i.e, missed 2012 with knee injury and 14 with wrist) but still played 8 years in a row during his early prime.
Sinner has now skipped Canada the last two years in his early prime -- 23/24 yrs old.
The old schedule in these late 2000s/early 2010s was a month off after Wimbledon (if you made final, that is), and then a compressed Canada/Cincy (max 10 matches in 14 days for top seeds), then a week off before US Open.
In my opinion, that month + after Wimbledon gave enough time for rest + mini-training camp to strengthen the body down the home stretch of the season.
Players could also arrive in Montreal knowing that the US Swing would be over in ~1 month. Not the 40+ days it is now.
I forgot that Wimbledon used to be played a week earlier than what it has been. I think it was good to add some more space in between RG and Wimbledon. Players can spend 3 weeks on the grass before Wimbledon instead of 2. But, like with technique, there are always trade-offs.
Carlos hasn't played Canada since 2023. It would have been interesting to see what he would have decided for this year if he were 100% fit by July. Maybe he would have played Montreal this year to get more reps in after being injured since mid-April.
I think in general Jannik and Carlos are more selective with their schedules than previous top players, at the same age. Some of that is going to be exacerbated by the 12 day Masters. But they also see the long game when it comes to their health, being ready for the majors.
Regarding the more-frequent ball changes, I don't know if it increases serve dominance by that much. As Matthew Willis rightly points out in his tweet, newer balls also increase DF rates and lower 1st in percentages. You see that in effect during the US Swing, which uses lighter balls. If not serve dominance, I think they increase sloppy-play from the ground/increase UE rates, but some timing-based players might benefit.
Excellent summary of uses and limits of AI.
I think faster balls and slower surfaces might be the right balance for encouraging more swashbuckling rallies without massive serve dominance. I'd have to read up on the bounce physics to confirm, but you can put your ball half a court deeper with a groundstroke than a serve, so the ball is traveling unambiguously faster for a much greater fraction of the trajectory if you play deep.
A few years ago, at tennisplayerDOTnet, Lindsey Lee Waters' husband and coach, Heath Waters, published a study showing the arrival times & speeds of groundstrokes that bounced shorter vs longer. I cannot recall the "short" distance from the baseline, or the "deep" measurement's proximity to the baseline, but for the sake of this description let's say it was 3' deep from the service line vs 2' from the baseline; as to speeds, I'll posit a 100 mph groundie vs a 75 mph stroke. (Both metric sets are simply examples, def not Waters' true numbers.)
Bottom line is that the slower ball, hit deeper, arrives faster since it doesn't lose momentum from hitting the court earlier, and thefore is more effective in rushing the opponent.
I'd say this is proof of what solid coaches have known for years, but only by the seat of their Lacoste shorts. : )