My question is about stroke mechanics, are there players in the top 100 that you consider have an elite wing, like top 10 level, but are brought down by other areas of their game?
I just thought about a second one, why does GMP serve so much better than Diallo, and can't hold a candle to him in rallies? Obviously from a biomechanics viewpoint.
Mailbag Q - a subject we've discussed privately already but I think can be interesting for everyone to read:
Over the years and as he pushed his way to incredible dominance, you've opened your heart to Sinner's merry-go-round / outside setup's FH with more dynamic flip, especially because, at the end of the day, his extended-wrist helps using gravity/not having too many moving parts, so that's a "modern" checkbox he ticks.
However, I felt like your analysis of this type of swing lacking control despite saving time was sound at the time to explain Jannik's shortcomings against great counterpunchers and still is today (see Alcaraz's FH prevailing in the moments of truth of their RG final for example).
Obviously Sinner's FH is great and as I said he has many things going his way to make it work better than other guys the same style. But as you work on DoF part 4, do you still contend those shorter/whippier strokes, while being a product of their time, represent a slight technical degradation in control compared to longer, fully gravity-assisted Ferris Wheels?
PS : I'm specifically distinguishing fully next-gen FHs with flexed wrist, a-la Khachanov/Zverev etc, from Sinner-style FH with a more neutral wrist but less upright racket head and whipped acceleration (post prime Federer, maybe Machac - I'm actually unsure about him though I don't like his FH). Sorry for any technical uncertainty in my comment lol.
Is there anything mechanically or tactically that Bublik did differently this season to achieve his career high ranking, or was this just the first time he mentally locked in consistently and took tennis seriously?
I’ve always been fascinated by how Federer’s forehand evolved—especially comparing the 2006 version to his later years. We’ve seen Alcaraz shorten his swing to reduce noise and improve his running forehand, and Federer shortened his swing as well over time.
But I actually feel shortening the forehand hurt Federer; his earlier stroke looked more fluid and less prone to breaking down.
Do you agree with that sentiment? What are your thoughts on how Federer’s forehand changed specifically?
Hi Hugh (or anyone else), could you recommend one or more websites for professional tennis statistics? Compared to other sports, tennis stats, at least the ones I can find anywhere, seem to be in the relative dark ages. It can be hard to find match or season statistics much beyond serve numbers, winners and unforced errors. Thank you.
Hi David, tennis abstract is the best thing out there that is free. Otherwise, TennisViz has a trove of additional data, but is restricted to certain media and the atp players/coaches themselves.
On the forehand side, I’ve seen a couple analysts (including in this blog iirc) that the finish is dependent on the situation, the grip, and the incoming ball. Yet, on the backhand side, I hear that the finish should always be head height. Is there any reason for this difference, or am i misunderstanding these principles? Personally, i feel like it’s difficult for me to always finish head high, and some balls feel way more comfortable with different finishes (e.g. running open stance backhands finishing waist height)
Concerning Auger-Aliassime, since it’s too late for him to completely overhaul his backhand technique, what can he do during the off-season to improve the shot?
His forehand can also be very erratic on its bad days. Why is that?
Never say never, but if it hasn't happened now, it's probably a sign that he has tried but just couldn't make it feel comfortable enough. Other options are to continue to develop the slice to help change direction/navigate being rushed. Forehand I think there can be too much wrist action for a short swing, and Brad Gilbert thinks he plants his feet too early, so outdoors with the elements that can be punished. I'll see if I notice anything on that last point in 2026
Can you identify the top five tinkerers on tour, in terms of smart training and working on their technique? Do you think this kind of experimental attitude generally translates to improved results? (And if so, maybe we can track your top five over the course of the coming season.)
Hard to know as a lot of tinkering happens to equipment or is often so subtle that there isn't much of a physical change to observe. But clear tinkerers: Sinner, Alcaraz, Shelton (forehand), Draper (forehand), Musetti (serve), Ruud (racquet/backhand) come to mind
Thanks for another great post, Hugh. My question is for 2026 -- will this be another Sincaraz year for majors or is another man going to hold up one of the four trophies?
On your list of serve % holders I was pleased to see Wayne Arthurs name on that. Most people have never heard of him, but he quietly had one of the best serves of the open era statistically. Unlike the Roddick/Shelton exaggerated load, Arthurs had this relaxed motion that looked like he was barely swinging but unleashed a ball with nasty action on it that was apparently very hard to read.
When you watch old clips, one of the things you see is he wasn't just a "hard to the corners" serve guy but he would handcuff people over and over right in the middle of the box.
Arthurs didn't have much coil in terms of his foot position or sidebend, but he did have a huge amount of coil in the spine. There's a book called "the spinal engine" which posits that our spine is the driver of human motion, not the legs. Our spine can flex/extend (forward and back movement), sidebend, or rotate. Arthurs had a lot of rotation against his hips:
Have you considered doing some technique analysis posts on more unorthodox players? This started as a joke comment asking you to analyse Paire's backhand, but I think it could be interesting to take a look at things like the famous Gulbis seagull forehand or Dolgo's insanely quick serve which you mentioned, see why they tried it, how they made it work.
Paire has a great backhand! His head move is unique though. Gulbis' forehand was a mess technically, by far his weakest shot, but he owned it and was a huge hitter on serve and backhand
Hey Hugh! Love the idea of doing a mailbag — here are a couple of questions for you ( Hope you can assess them all ):
- João Fonseca’s 2025 breakthrough was massive and expectations are only going to rise in 2026.
We all know elite athleticism and movement will probably never be his biggest edge, he will never be Alcaraz's like.
So where should the main focus be long-term?
- further development of his net skills?
- improving baseline consistency and point construction?
-serve efficiency and variety?
/////////////////////////////////
- Arthur Fils is expected to return for the Australian Open and he recently said he slightly tweaked his service mechanics so that it puts less stress on his back.
His serve has been a legit weapon so far in my opinion.
What are your expectations for him in 2026?
What would a successful comeback season look like?
- FAA's run since Cincinnati has been spectacular....Indoors/outdoors. We all Know how good he can be on a given day and carrying confidence of prior weeks. Do you expect him to carry this form into 2026 or will his technical limitations will catch him up as it has always been the case so far....
- Lastly, Sincaraz has been the main topic of 2025. Will it be a bis repetita in 2026 and both of them wrapping up all slams or one will get far ahead of the other...or the field would eventually toughen up and make them work even more for big titles...
I think for Fonseca it's point construction (not going for lines and winners as often, just hitting big to big targets and letting his ball quality win him more points) and serve efficiency. He has an elite serve potential but didn't hold at elite numbers this year. Could increase that a couple of %
Fils it's hard to judge as it seems this injury is worse than expected. He recently pulled out of another event I saw. Ditto for Draper.
I think FAA is more ready this time to keep his position at the top. the backhand slice and more line shots are a clear tactic he needs to continue to use, but it's harder against better competition to do this since they can rush that wing more effectively.
i think Sincaraz will be the clear favourites for all four slams, but injuries happen, and then the door opens for the chasing pack.
Hugh, you often mention the flaws in Zverev’s forehand. Could you share a few examples—perhaps three current top-ranked ATP players—who also have notable technical weaknesses in their forehands?
Mailbag Q - Why you think tennis players reach their peak around 25 years old, when in others sports rookies are mostly able to impact in their first or second season? Generally speaking, of course, not considering outliers like Alcaraz, Nadal and etc. Is the nature of the sport? The strong dependence of tactics in tennis, and this only comes with age?
I don't know enough about other sports to know if it's true that others peak earlier, but my answer for tennis is that it's just so demanding from a technical, tactical, physical, and mental standpoint, that it's very difficult to put all those pieces together when you're still so young; you need time to figure it all out. I'm biased, but I can't think of a sport that demands technical refinery to the degree of tennis, as well as the physical demands of BO5, and the mental challenge of 1-on-1 when it's tough to get an edge greater than ~54% of points.
Hi hugh, always exciting to see a new piece from you pop up! I was wondering what your thoughts are on shelton’s development and trajectory - where do you predict his peak to be? He obviously has a massive serve and fh that props up his game, while his returns and bh leaves more to be desired; however, ive read that returning is one of the hardest aspects of the game to improve on - a) is that true? b) why is that? c) how does this shape your thoughts on his development?
On a similar note, what makes a great returner and in your opinion, who are the game’s best returners?
I think Ben still has a lot of upside on his serve, surprisingly. He doesn't play that side of his game as well as he could in terms of accuracy and change-up (guilty of too much change-up perhaps). His return of serve is more of a forehand issue than backhand, in terms of returns in play, but once in a rally, his lack of topspin backhand shield (and footwork) hold him back from being more of a counterpuncher. I think he has to continue to develop into a hyper-aggressive, come forward player, so serve and net skills. If he could develop on open-stance backhand out wide that would help as well.
(a) I think it depends on the player. Serve is probably easier as its the one closed-skill in tennis, so maybe there is truth in that because (b) returns test your technique on both sides and movement/explosiveness, so the shot encompasses a lot.
Different ways to be a great returner. You can make a tonne in a more defensive manner if you back your legs/defense (Medvedev/Musetti), or you can get the ball back on guys more quickly (Humbert/Rublev), but the very best tend to get a lot of returns in AND with some interest. Hard to do without insane athleticism and technique/control from wide positions.
Yeah, and the reason why return stats tends not to improve is because return skills (aside from technique) peak early : reactions/explosiveness. Jeff Sackman did a great piece on that and it was actually about Shelton's ceiling. So in general you tend to see elite returners early on. But if you've got margin for improvement on your technique and/or general rally game you can buck the trend and improve your stats. Return itself tends not to
Hi Hugh, always happy to see your pieces!
My question is about stroke mechanics, are there players in the top 100 that you consider have an elite wing, like top 10 level, but are brought down by other areas of their game?
I just thought about a second one, why does GMP serve so much better than Diallo, and can't hold a candle to him in rallies? Obviously from a biomechanics viewpoint.
Thank you in advance, and happy holidays!
Hi Hugh,
Mailbag Q - a subject we've discussed privately already but I think can be interesting for everyone to read:
Over the years and as he pushed his way to incredible dominance, you've opened your heart to Sinner's merry-go-round / outside setup's FH with more dynamic flip, especially because, at the end of the day, his extended-wrist helps using gravity/not having too many moving parts, so that's a "modern" checkbox he ticks.
However, I felt like your analysis of this type of swing lacking control despite saving time was sound at the time to explain Jannik's shortcomings against great counterpunchers and still is today (see Alcaraz's FH prevailing in the moments of truth of their RG final for example).
Obviously Sinner's FH is great and as I said he has many things going his way to make it work better than other guys the same style. But as you work on DoF part 4, do you still contend those shorter/whippier strokes, while being a product of their time, represent a slight technical degradation in control compared to longer, fully gravity-assisted Ferris Wheels?
PS : I'm specifically distinguishing fully next-gen FHs with flexed wrist, a-la Khachanov/Zverev etc, from Sinner-style FH with a more neutral wrist but less upright racket head and whipped acceleration (post prime Federer, maybe Machac - I'm actually unsure about him though I don't like his FH). Sorry for any technical uncertainty in my comment lol.
Is there anything mechanically or tactically that Bublik did differently this season to achieve his career high ranking, or was this just the first time he mentally locked in consistently and took tennis seriously?
I’ve always been fascinated by how Federer’s forehand evolved—especially comparing the 2006 version to his later years. We’ve seen Alcaraz shorten his swing to reduce noise and improve his running forehand, and Federer shortened his swing as well over time.
But I actually feel shortening the forehand hurt Federer; his earlier stroke looked more fluid and less prone to breaking down.
Do you agree with that sentiment? What are your thoughts on how Federer’s forehand changed specifically?
Hi Hugh (or anyone else), could you recommend one or more websites for professional tennis statistics? Compared to other sports, tennis stats, at least the ones I can find anywhere, seem to be in the relative dark ages. It can be hard to find match or season statistics much beyond serve numbers, winners and unforced errors. Thank you.
Hi David, tennis abstract is the best thing out there that is free. Otherwise, TennisViz has a trove of additional data, but is restricted to certain media and the atp players/coaches themselves.
Please check out our Substack. We have extensive data from all WTA Tour finals plus several other matches.
https://tennisinsidenumbers.substack.com/
You might check out: https://tennisabstract.com
Thank you, interesting information, although sad if that's the best there is out there.
On the forehand side, I’ve seen a couple analysts (including in this blog iirc) that the finish is dependent on the situation, the grip, and the incoming ball. Yet, on the backhand side, I hear that the finish should always be head height. Is there any reason for this difference, or am i misunderstanding these principles? Personally, i feel like it’s difficult for me to always finish head high, and some balls feel way more comfortable with different finishes (e.g. running open stance backhands finishing waist height)
Concerning Auger-Aliassime, since it’s too late for him to completely overhaul his backhand technique, what can he do during the off-season to improve the shot?
His forehand can also be very erratic on its bad days. Why is that?
Never say never, but if it hasn't happened now, it's probably a sign that he has tried but just couldn't make it feel comfortable enough. Other options are to continue to develop the slice to help change direction/navigate being rushed. Forehand I think there can be too much wrist action for a short swing, and Brad Gilbert thinks he plants his feet too early, so outdoors with the elements that can be punished. I'll see if I notice anything on that last point in 2026
Can you identify the top five tinkerers on tour, in terms of smart training and working on their technique? Do you think this kind of experimental attitude generally translates to improved results? (And if so, maybe we can track your top five over the course of the coming season.)
Hard to know as a lot of tinkering happens to equipment or is often so subtle that there isn't much of a physical change to observe. But clear tinkerers: Sinner, Alcaraz, Shelton (forehand), Draper (forehand), Musetti (serve), Ruud (racquet/backhand) come to mind
Thanks for another great post, Hugh. My question is for 2026 -- will this be another Sincaraz year for majors or is another man going to hold up one of the four trophies?
if no injuries I think Sincaraz look tough to beat. But injuries do happen, so who knows!
On your list of serve % holders I was pleased to see Wayne Arthurs name on that. Most people have never heard of him, but he quietly had one of the best serves of the open era statistically. Unlike the Roddick/Shelton exaggerated load, Arthurs had this relaxed motion that looked like he was barely swinging but unleashed a ball with nasty action on it that was apparently very hard to read.
When you watch old clips, one of the things you see is he wasn't just a "hard to the corners" serve guy but he would handcuff people over and over right in the middle of the box.
Arthurs didn't have much coil in terms of his foot position or sidebend, but he did have a huge amount of coil in the spine. There's a book called "the spinal engine" which posits that our spine is the driver of human motion, not the legs. Our spine can flex/extend (forward and back movement), sidebend, or rotate. Arthurs had a lot of rotation against his hips:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9G47V63rP40
And of course, being a left in his era probably helped on faster surfaces without poly strings as prevalent.
Have you considered doing some technique analysis posts on more unorthodox players? This started as a joke comment asking you to analyse Paire's backhand, but I think it could be interesting to take a look at things like the famous Gulbis seagull forehand or Dolgo's insanely quick serve which you mentioned, see why they tried it, how they made it work.
Paire has a great backhand! His head move is unique though. Gulbis' forehand was a mess technically, by far his weakest shot, but he owned it and was a huge hitter on serve and backhand
Hey Hugh! Love the idea of doing a mailbag — here are a couple of questions for you ( Hope you can assess them all ):
- João Fonseca’s 2025 breakthrough was massive and expectations are only going to rise in 2026.
We all know elite athleticism and movement will probably never be his biggest edge, he will never be Alcaraz's like.
So where should the main focus be long-term?
- further development of his net skills?
- improving baseline consistency and point construction?
-serve efficiency and variety?
/////////////////////////////////
- Arthur Fils is expected to return for the Australian Open and he recently said he slightly tweaked his service mechanics so that it puts less stress on his back.
His serve has been a legit weapon so far in my opinion.
What are your expectations for him in 2026?
What would a successful comeback season look like?
- FAA's run since Cincinnati has been spectacular....Indoors/outdoors. We all Know how good he can be on a given day and carrying confidence of prior weeks. Do you expect him to carry this form into 2026 or will his technical limitations will catch him up as it has always been the case so far....
- Lastly, Sincaraz has been the main topic of 2025. Will it be a bis repetita in 2026 and both of them wrapping up all slams or one will get far ahead of the other...or the field would eventually toughen up and make them work even more for big titles...
thanks Hugh
Thanks Court Vision!
I think for Fonseca it's point construction (not going for lines and winners as often, just hitting big to big targets and letting his ball quality win him more points) and serve efficiency. He has an elite serve potential but didn't hold at elite numbers this year. Could increase that a couple of %
Fils it's hard to judge as it seems this injury is worse than expected. He recently pulled out of another event I saw. Ditto for Draper.
I think FAA is more ready this time to keep his position at the top. the backhand slice and more line shots are a clear tactic he needs to continue to use, but it's harder against better competition to do this since they can rush that wing more effectively.
i think Sincaraz will be the clear favourites for all four slams, but injuries happen, and then the door opens for the chasing pack.
Hugh, you often mention the flaws in Zverev’s forehand. Could you share a few examples—perhaps three current top-ranked ATP players—who also have notable technical weaknesses in their forehands?
I'll say Mensik, Hurkacz, ADF, and Machac. More to come in a forehand piece soon, but I've touched on Mensik's and ADF's before:
https://hughclarke.substack.com/p/fonseca-vs-adf-basel-final-recap
Hi Hugh, which current ATP player who isn’t 6’5 and above has the best serve biomechanics in your opinion?
Shelton in my opinion. Huge load and potential for racquet head speed.
Hi Hugh,
Mailbag Q - Why you think tennis players reach their peak around 25 years old, when in others sports rookies are mostly able to impact in their first or second season? Generally speaking, of course, not considering outliers like Alcaraz, Nadal and etc. Is the nature of the sport? The strong dependence of tactics in tennis, and this only comes with age?
I don't know enough about other sports to know if it's true that others peak earlier, but my answer for tennis is that it's just so demanding from a technical, tactical, physical, and mental standpoint, that it's very difficult to put all those pieces together when you're still so young; you need time to figure it all out. I'm biased, but I can't think of a sport that demands technical refinery to the degree of tennis, as well as the physical demands of BO5, and the mental challenge of 1-on-1 when it's tough to get an edge greater than ~54% of points.
thanks very much for the insight, love your content
Hi hugh, always exciting to see a new piece from you pop up! I was wondering what your thoughts are on shelton’s development and trajectory - where do you predict his peak to be? He obviously has a massive serve and fh that props up his game, while his returns and bh leaves more to be desired; however, ive read that returning is one of the hardest aspects of the game to improve on - a) is that true? b) why is that? c) how does this shape your thoughts on his development?
On a similar note, what makes a great returner and in your opinion, who are the game’s best returners?
I think Ben still has a lot of upside on his serve, surprisingly. He doesn't play that side of his game as well as he could in terms of accuracy and change-up (guilty of too much change-up perhaps). His return of serve is more of a forehand issue than backhand, in terms of returns in play, but once in a rally, his lack of topspin backhand shield (and footwork) hold him back from being more of a counterpuncher. I think he has to continue to develop into a hyper-aggressive, come forward player, so serve and net skills. If he could develop on open-stance backhand out wide that would help as well.
(a) I think it depends on the player. Serve is probably easier as its the one closed-skill in tennis, so maybe there is truth in that because (b) returns test your technique on both sides and movement/explosiveness, so the shot encompasses a lot.
Different ways to be a great returner. You can make a tonne in a more defensive manner if you back your legs/defense (Medvedev/Musetti), or you can get the ball back on guys more quickly (Humbert/Rublev), but the very best tend to get a lot of returns in AND with some interest. Hard to do without insane athleticism and technique/control from wide positions.
Yeah, and the reason why return stats tends not to improve is because return skills (aside from technique) peak early : reactions/explosiveness. Jeff Sackman did a great piece on that and it was actually about Shelton's ceiling. So in general you tend to see elite returners early on. But if you've got margin for improvement on your technique and/or general rally game you can buck the trend and improve your stats. Return itself tends not to