Indian Wells Men's Draw
Conditions—predictions—past champions
The “fifth Grand Slam" gets underway on Thursday at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. After two months on tour, we look at past performances, the draw, and the form players heading into the 2022 edition.
Conditions in Indian Wells are hot and dry and the ball tends to be ‘quick’ through the air. The surface, however, is quite gritty and grips the ball a lot, and can make conditions slow if the ball fluffs. The day sessions are faster and bouncier with the cool nights blunting these effects. Big-servers and taller players should enjoy these courts however counterpunchers can do well here (e.g., Schwartzman’s extreme forehand grip won’t mind the bounce). A look at past quarterfinal tournaments is shown below.
Singles Draw - First Quarter
Top Seeds: Newly crowned world number 1 Medvedev leads the field and is in good form. He will take some stopping although I think this gritty surface isn’t his favorite. FOURTH-ROUND. An out-of-sorts Tsitsipas is still 14-5 on the year and will take some stopping. I think these conditions suit his heavy game but he has a tough draw and he needs to improve his slice and return if he is to push for number one. THIRD ROUND.
Young Gun: Spanish sensation, Carlos Alcaraz, is coming off his maiden ATP-500 title in Rio last month, and although that was on clay, he made the US Open quarterfinals last year. Is he the future of tennis? He has a tough draw, but I think this kid is special. SEMI-FINALS.
Dark Horses: Brooksby also lurks in this section and his days as an unseeded player are surely numbered. A tough second-round match with Khachanov, who has quietly racked up plenty of wins in 2022, will give the winner a shot of a likely third-round with Tsitsipas. Khachanov QUARTERFINALS.
1st Round Popcorn: Mackenzie McDonald v Marton Fucsovics. Both guys are capable of a good run here and play similar flat styles.
PREDICTION: Alcaraz v Khachanov.
Second Quarter
Top Seeds: Australian Open champion Nadal is the tournament favorite with the bookies. Confident and physically fresh, there is every indication that a fourth Indian Wells title awaits. However, I have a feeling this is where the GOAT will taste defeat in 2022. FOURTH ROUND. Ruud did well in 2021, but his results largely came in smaller dirt tournaments. Despite a friendly draw, I think the net-rushing anomaly that is Cressy may upset him. SECOND ROUND.
Young Gun: One of the hardest hitters on tour, Jannik Sinner will be hard to stop in the desert. He’s 22-8 since the US Open last year and has a kind draw for a seed outside the top-8. SEMIFINALS.
Dark Horses: Opelka (11-4) and Shapovalov (11-5) have both racked up plenty of wins this year. On their day they are capable of beating anyone and both should be feeling confident they can make a good run. Opelka QUARTERFINALS.
1st Round Popcorn: Nick Kyrgios v Sebastian Baez. Thanasi Kokkinakis v Sebastian Korda.
This is the toughest quarter by far. Other notable form players: Arthur Rinderknech (10-5), Maxime Cressy (9-5), and Dan Evans (7-4).
PREDICTION: Opelka v Sinner.
Third Quarter
Top Seeds: Last year’s Wimbledon finalist Berrettini has one of the best draws of the top seeds and is in his prime. Although his topspin backhand is a liability, his serve and forehand will love this court. FOURTH ROUND. Zverev is lucky to be in the tournament after his Acapulco meltdown. Always a tough prospect, but I think Tommy Paul will get him in the SECOND ROUND.
Young Gun: Auger Aliassime has come good on his teenage promise in recent months, reaching the quarterfinals of the Australian Open and bagging his first title in Rotterdam (1-9 finals record). A tough section of the draw, but he is match-fit (15-4 on the season), confident, and on a court that should suit him. SEMI-FINALS.
Dark Horses: Fritz (8-4) and Paul (10-5) are in-form and will have the local support. Fritz FOURTH ROUND.
1st Round Popcorn: Ugo Humbert v Holger Rune.
PREDICTION: Auger Aliassime v Fritz.
Fourth Quarter
Top Seeds: With Djokovic’s withdrawal this is by far the most open section of the draw. Dimitrov is struggling for form and fitness (4-4) and will be keen to take advantage of this draw if he can. THIRD ROUND. Rublev is on a 9-match winning streak and is 14-2 on the season. Confident and hard-hitting, now is his chance to go deep in a Masters 1000. SEMIFINALS.
Young Gun: Emil Ruusuvori is fresh off a maiden tour final in Pune and is 9-5 on the season. His draw is decent for an unseeded player and I think he will be dangerous for Schwartzman and Isner should they meet.
Dark Horses: Isner made the finals here ten years ago. A decade on, this draw may be his best chance yet. 7-8 on tie-breakers this year, if he gets a few more going his way he can go deep. Murray finds himself with one of the best draws possible with Djokovic’s absence. Does he have the fitness to make the most of it? Bublik (9-5) won his first tournament last month in Montpellier.
1st Round Popcorn: Oscar Otte v Richard Gasquet. Emil Ruusuvori v Philipp Kohlschreiber.
Hubert Hurkacz (8-4), Aslan Karatsev (7-5), and Diego Schwartzman (12-5) will like their chances in this section.
PREDICTION: Rublev v Schwartzman.
It’s hot this week. While that helps the big servers with their serve, can they control their groundstrokes?
I’m going with players who have wins under their belt.