Indian Wells Draw Preview

Laykold — dark horses — upsets — tough draws — predictions

The Fifth Grand Slam main draw action gets underway on Wednesday March 5.

Conditions

The big talking point leading up to the tournament this year has been the switch from Plexipave to Laykold courts (the latter being used at Miami and the US Open). From Nishi’s tennisedge.io newsletter:

“Without getting into too many technical details, the main takeaway is that Laykold courts are faster than Plexipave, and the ball bounces lower. That’s the key difference.”

“Indian Wells has historically been one of the slowest hard-court tournaments on the tour. Rafael Nadal has won this event three times, while Carlos Alcaraz has claimed the title in the last two editions. Additionally, the old Plexipave surface was very gritty, which caused the ball to bounce higher, favoring players who generate a lot of topspin—Nadal being the prime example. Even John Isner once said that he loved playing here because the ball would bounce above his shoulder.”

“The switch to Laykold courts means that not only will the ball travel faster off the surface, but it will also bounce lower.”

“Due to the dry climate, the air is less dense, allowing the ball to travel through it more quickly. Additionally, high temperatures cause the ball to bounce higher. In other words, it’s not just the court that contributes to a high bounce—the weather also plays a role.”

Of course, this is all speculation until we get into the event, but so far through 24 qualifying matches the data doesn’t suggest it’s that much faster. That usually changes with main draw action, as better players tend to hit more aces and win more first-serve points. I’m making these picks based on the notion that the courts will play slightly faster and lower compared to a traditional Indian Wells event.

The temperatures forecasted for the opening few rounds are rather mild, so the mixture of this lower and faster surface, coupled with cooler conditions may hurt the power topspin guys slightly — the Ruud’s, Alcaraz’s, Fils’, and Tsitsipas’ of the game — and help some of the flatter guys (Djokovic, Dimitrov, Rublev, Medvedev) but let’s not get carried away; it’s still a hardcourt, and class and form will come through.

The other unique factor of Indian Wells is the wind. Notorious for some bangin’ breezes, the ten day forecast actually looks quite calm. The usual Penn ball is in play.

It will be interesting to see how the folks from the Golden Swing go this year. Usually the Indian Wells conditions could be very friendly to heavy-hitting clay courters, but if it’s lower, slower, and cooler, the Zverev’s, Cerundolo’s, and Rune’s may be slightly more vulnerable.

Let’s check out the quarters.

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First Quarter

Quarterfinal Prediction: Tsitsipas def. Tiafoe

Zverev has never played well here, and I think the desert air can make controlling the ball that little bit more difficult for him. I think either Kecmanovic or Griekspoor will have a good chance to upset the German in the second round. A racquet-rejuvenated Tsitsipas arrives off the back of a Dubai title and I like his chances to keep the streak going. Rune and GMP lack wins. Humbert is someone who will welcome the surface change and is in career-best form. Tiafoe is a different player on American soil and enjoys the spotlight on a big court, so prior form be damned, plus he should also enjoy lower and faster conditions. Machac is fresh off a title in Acapulco. Berrettini is fit and looking dangerous.

Seeds Upset: Griekspoor def. Zverev; Marozsan def. GMP

Dark Horses: Fabian Marozsan’s career high is #36, but he’s 6-7 versus top-10 opponents and 17-8 in Masters 1000 (way above his career winning average of ~.500 for hard courts).

Round 1 Match: Kecmanovic vs Griekspoor for the baseline lovers; Moutet vs Thompson for some cat-and-mouse.

Almost went with… Berrettini. I think the Italian’s four recent losses to Tsitsipas, Draper, Griekspoor, and Rune will age well this year. He’s moving well and should get good purchase on his serve in the desert. His 3-set hardcourt record just doesn’t make sense. Too good of a player to not have more deep runs in these Masters events.

Toughest Draw? Zverev. Toughest first round of the seeds, a projected third round with the serve-bot of serve-bots, then the in-form Machac or home favourite Tiafoe.

Getting ahead of myself: Machac vs Tiafoe would be a highly entertaining affair. Both are shot-makers. Contrast the net skills and feel from Tiafoe with the movement from Machac.

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Second Quarter

Quarterfinal Prediction: Paul def. Opelka

Medvedev was a finalist in the two recent editions, and will welcome any possibility of more speed in the surface, but he is not the hardcourt giant Medvedev we are used to seeing; losses in form and/or motivation have translated on the court. Ruud had a run in Dallas. Popyrin, Fils, and Musetti are vulnerable early. There is seeded form stacked in the bottom half with Paul, Lehecka, and Michelsen all off to flyers in 2025.

Seeds Upset: Opelka defeats Musetti; Giron defeats Ruud

Dark Horses: The obvious choice here is Opelka. He’s a giant killer by design and has landed in Musetti’s section, who arrives with fitness question marks, but I think Marcos Giron could be a real sleeper to go deep in this section. He’s had losses this year to FAA, Sinner, Kecmanovic, and Shapovalov. From the bottom I’ll take Nextgen wildcard Basavareddy.

Round 1 Match: Quinn vs Bergs interests me as both are in form, plus the winner has a good draw as far as facing seeds goes. Leaning Quinn for the upset.

Almost went with… Michelsen. Is he the most under-rated youngster going round? I think he’s talented, driven, and mentally solid, I just question how high the ceiling is. Lacks elite movement or firepower.

Toughest Draw? Lehecka. Opens against either former champion Norrie, or Djokovic’s IW conquerer from last year in Nardi. Then likely Paul who is in the peak of his career. Then a projected match with Medvedev or Michelsen.

Getting ahead of myself: I think this is the most open section. The surface change probably hurts Ruud’s game potency, and Medvedev is out of sorts, as are the other seeds in the top section. There’s former top brass in Opelka and Norrie floating around. Lehecka vs Paul seems likely given their form, and it would make for a contrasting match of the Czech’s firepower against the American’s movement.

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Third Quarter

Quarterfinal Prediction: Shelton def. Fritz

Rublev had a solid February. Fritz didn’t, but the American enjoys playing at home and has a kind draw. A stack of Nextgen talent in this section (Tien, Mensik, Fonseca). Tabilo is in free fall. FAA is on fire. Draper is playing well until his body breaks. Shelton had a lean February after a semifinal run to the Australian Open. Khachanov has been Khachanov: solid.

Seeds Upset: Fonseca def. Draper; Lajovic def. Tabilo.

Dark Horses: You know I gotta take my guy Fonseca, but Fonseca is not really a dark horse given he would be seeded 1 if rankings were based on hype, so I’ll give you another option in the other direction and take Jenson Brooksby from the bottom half. He has the kind of game that could neutralise FAA and has quietly put up stiff tests against Quinn and Paul in his two most recent matches (two guys who are in form). It’s hard to pick a dark horse down there because the path is so brutal: FAA and Draper are in form and Fritz is a class player. From the top half I’ll take Learner Tien, who already has two top-five wins on his resume in Zverev (Acapulco) and Medvedev (Australian Open). I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the top brass he has beaten are two players who both struggle when having to generate their own pace. He is in their mold as a player, but he lacks the serving power that makes him a top-10 counterpuncher in my opinion. I think both those wins will look opportunistic with the benefit of a year’s hindsight.

Round 1 Match: Arnaldi vs Kovacevic. Aggressive shotmaking, a one-hander. Should be good.

Almost went with…Fonseca. I mean, it’s when, not if he makes a deep run at a Masters or slam. There is a learning curve to be had with so much attention now. How does he handle that pressure? Plus, this draw is brutal. But the ceiling of his game means draws be damned. On his day he is going to be the better player on the court against most of the tour. Ticking time bomb.

Toughest Draw? Draper. Likely opener against Fonseca. Then FAA, who leads the tour in wins this year. Then Fritz.

Getting ahead of myself: There’s a lot of second round matches I’d love to see from the nextgen against seeds. Mensik vs. Khachanov is interesting because they are big dudes who don’t really hit it that big off the ground. Mensik has a movement and serve edge but Khachanov is in good form. Fonseca vs Draper would be a cracker. Draper has the serve and movement edge, but Fonseca has the groundstroke firepower. Then Tien vs Shelton would be an All-American lefty battle: power vs precision.

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Fourth Quarter

Quarterfinal Prediction: Alcaraz def. Djokovic

Djokovic comes in with a loss to Berrettini being his only match since retiring from the Australian Open semifinals. Murray is in tow so I assume he’s here to win. Alcaraz is the two-time defending champion and nabbed a title recently in Rotterdam. Shapovalov won Dallas. De Minaur made the final of Rotterdam and is in career-best form. Dimitrov has struggled since making the semis of Brisbane. Hurkacz made a semifinal in Rotterdam. The Pole has performed better at Miami historically, but now that Indian Wells has the same surface he might feel it. Korda had a promising start to the year making the Adelaide final, but has only played three matches since. Kyrgios returns, but I think Lucky Loser BVZ takes him out in round 1.

Seeds Upset: ADF def. Cerundolo; Monfils def. Korda

Dark Horses: Davidovich Fokina has already won 13 matches this season and is an electric shot-maker if he can keep a lid on his mental game. From the bottom half, Gael Monfils needs no introduction.

Round 1 Match: Kyrgios vs BVZ. Will be interesting to see if Nick is really here to play tennis, or do podcasts, or something.

Almost went with…De Minaur. He’s in career-best form and Djokovic’s priorities are slams these days.

Toughest Draw? Djokovic. Will open against a Lucky Loser with a lot of match practice already in BVZ, or Kyrgios with a match win, signalling some sort of form. Then he could face shot-makers in ADF or Cerundolo, then Hurkacz or de Minaur.

Getting ahead of myself: Give me Alcaraz versus Djokovic again. Savour every one of these matches.

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I just realised a lot of Americans feature in my final eight predictions. I guess that’s a combination of the US having a resurgence (Fritz, Paul, Shelton, and Tiafoe are all top-20, and Opelka is a former top-20 on the injury comeback) and some nice draws making a path seem viable (Paul, Opelka, Fritz). I think they all tend to play better at home as well, so that helps.

Semifinal Predictions

Tsitsipas def. Paul (I am fully on the Greek hype train with the racquet change).

Alcaraz def. Shelton

Final

Alcaraz def. Tsitsipas. Would love to see how Stef’s backhand fairs against his tormenter.

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I’ll see you in the comments. HC