Australian Open Preview

balls—conditions—predictions

The first Grand Slam of the season kicks off on Monday, and plenty has been said of the men’s draw—especially for the contrasting path difficulties of Nadal and Djokovic. Once again the courts and balls are playing pretty quick. Late in 2022, John Millman tweeted that the Dunlop balls for the 2023 AO felt lighter and faster:

“Having hit with the AO 2023 Dunlop balls the last week my general observation is they are light and quick, especially when new. Not the easiest to control initially even in the humid conditions where I am in Brisbane. NK [Kyrgios], Hurkacz, Fritz all very dangerous this AO”

However, Nadal commented on their lack of durability:

“After a couple of hits, the ball loses the pressure. It’s more difficult to hit with the right spin…I think it is easier to play when you play flatter on the shots. But I need to live with it. I think I have practised enough with the ball to be ready for it.”

Novak Djokovic also mentioned the conditions after his win over Medvedev in Adelaide:

“He [Medvedev] is one of the best servers in the world, definitely on these courts where it is quick and the ball skids through, it is tough to play him…I’m hitting the ball very well. I obviously played a couple matches. Tomorrow we’re going to have a late day session, still some sun on the court, so different conditions. Plays differently in the night; ball bounces less and it’s a bit slower. Obviously, it helps when you’re playing big servers. You can return their serve better.”

Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be hot (30C and 36C) with some afternoon showers, but for the rest of the first week temperatures are pretty mild and cool in the evenings (~15C).

A bit of a different post this weekend with some winner (in red) predictions for each opening round match of the 2023 AO.

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First Quarter

$1.44 Nadal v $2.75 Draper: the defending champ has his work cut out in the opening round, but if he gets past Draper he should navigate his way to a possible fourth-round clash against Tiafoe. Although he lost his two United Cup matches against Norrie and De Minaur (after winning the opening sets in both) he’s had time to practice and adjust and he seems fit if only lacking match toughness. A hard opening week may be just what he needs to catch fire deeper in the draw. I’m still backing him to make the quarterfinals where Medvedev, Korda, Shapovalov or Hurkacz likely await.

$1.57 Nakashima v $2.38 McDonald: Both guys play similar flat baseline games and will enjoy these conditions, McDonald has had success here in the past but Nakashima has the edge in form.

$1.44 Munar v $2.75 Svrcina: Munar has beefed his serve up in recent years and has improved his ability on faster surfaces (he pushed eventual semifinalist Cam Norrie to a fifth set at Wimbledon last year). Svrcina is a young Czech who came through qualifying and I think the match fitness may help him over the line here with Munar lacking matches in recent months. Svrcina upset.

$1.91 Ymer v $1.91 Nishioka: Both are in good form and enjoy these conditions. Ymer has great groundstroke fundamentals and has quietly posted very strong return numbers in the last 52 weeks. Neither possesses a huge serve. Will be a war of attrition from the baseline. Feels like a five-setter and a coin toss really, but I’ll take Ymer.

$1.07 Khachanov v $9.00 Zapata Miralles: Hard not to back Khachanov here. The Russian has looked pretty sharp in the opening Adelaide 250s (wins over Draper, Cachin, and Huesler) and enjoys the hardcourts. ZM is a clay courter with little sign of form so far this year.

$3.20 Baez v $1.36 Kubler: Kubler is enjoying a career-best ranking after finally finding a fix to his recurrent knee issues that plagued him for a decade. Baez—after a very strong clay swing last year— has lost 16 of his last 17 matches. With the home crowd and confidence on his side, I’m picking Kubler.

$1.40 Otte v $3.00 Shang: Otte is a big-serving German who enjoys these conditions, but is still searching for his best form after knee surgery sidelined him after Wimbledon. Shang, at 17, is the youngest player in the men’s draw this year. He lacks firepower but makes up for it with well-grooved groundstrokes and comes in with the benefit of three wins in qualifying.

$5.50 Altmaier v $1.14 Tiafoe: Altmaier prefers clay and Tiafoe is in form. The American should come through relatively untroubled.

$1.06 Hurkacz v $10.00 Martinez: Hurkacz has underperformed at the AO in recent years and Martinez is a tough baseliner, but the Pole should come through this test.

$1.30 Sonego v $3.50 Borges: Sonego is the better player but he had a somewhat disappointing 2022 (he made up for it with a late title in Metz) and retired against Medvedev in Adelaide 1 after one set. Borges hasn’t played a match in 2023. Taiking Sonego with the experience and higher level.

$2.38 Escobedo v $1.57 Daniel: Daniel had a strong year in 2022 and made the third-round last year at the AO (defeating Murray along the way). Escobedo has a big game and came through qualifying without dropping a set. I think the underdog is a good shot here.

$8.00 Lajovic v $1.08 Shapovalov: Lajovic is a quality player but he is lacking hard-court matches. Shapovalov should like these conditions and is on the rebound after a decent indoor campaign late last year.

$1.08 Korda v $8.00 Garin: Garin is another quality player that is lacking match wins. He has the game to play well on quick surfaces, but Korda has struck a rich vein of form in recent months.

$2.38 Watanuki v $1.57 Rinderknech: Rinderknech loves these conditions with his big serve and flat game. Watanuki came through qualifying and is on a tear having won 16 of his last 17. Leaning toward Watanuki.

$2.10 Millman v $1.73 Huesler: Millman has the home-court advantage and always is tough to put away in Melbourne, but has lacked form the past months, whereas Huesler is in career-best form. However, this match is scheduled for Show Court 3; the most intimate (and for foreigners, intimidating) arena on the grounds by far. The crowd can play a huge role on this court and I think Millman can squeeze this out.

$10.00 Giron v $1.06 Medvedev: Giron enjoys these conditions with his flat strokes and is in great form, but Medvedev loves this court and he has a huge serve to back it up. The Russian never really recovered in 2022 after losing last year’s AO final from two sets up, and he will be looking to get his career back on track this year. A possible rematch with Nadal awaits. An unlucky draw for Giron, but he can keep it interesting if he brings his best.

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Second Quarter

$1.17 Tsitsipas v $5.00 Halys: Halys played like a top-10 player against Djokovic in Adelaide; a big game that can deliver from all parts of the court and no stranger around the net. The problem for the Frenchman is that Tsitsipas is on a seven-match win streak, and the scalps are impressive (Rublev, Dimitrov, Berrettini, Norrie, Ruud, Coric, Goffin). Halys can cause trouble but over five sets I’m backing the Greek. A pretty good draw overall has him set for a deep run.

$1.80 Hanfmann v $2.00 Hijikata: Both guys are in form and will like their chances. I’m leaning towards the young Aussie who will get over the line with the help of the home crowd.

$1.36 Griekspoor v $3.20 Kotov: Griekspoor comes fresh off his maiden title in Pune and should get past Lucky Loser Kotov.

$2.75 Ivashka v $1.44 Van De Zandschulp: Ivashka comes Down Under without a match under his belt in 2023, and that gives the edge to BVZ, but I think it will be a close contest.

$1.40 Musetti v $3.00 Harris: Musetti has been in good form in the past months—and importantly, won some big matches on hard courts—but Harris has quietly built up a bank of match wins at the Challenger level in recent weeks and is a major threat on this kind of court. Musetti should come through, but it won’t be easy.

$4.50 Coria v $1.20 Fucsovics: Fucsovics won the Canberra Challenger last week and loves quick courts—twice he has mad the R16 here in Melbourne (2018, 2020). Coria is a smaller clay courter who lacks the firepower to challenge Fucsovics if the Hungarian is fit, which is often a big question mark.

$2.30 Etcheverry v $1.62 Barrere: Both guys come in with match wins but Barrere prefers the hard courts more so. Leaning Barrere.

$10.00 Edmund v $1.06 Sinner: Edmund is a former semi-finalist here in Melbourne. A huge forehand, but persistent knee issues have kept him off the circuit for the past few years, and he just doesn’t have the matches under his belt yet to be a strong chance of an upset here. Edmund might pip the first set, but Sinner should finish strong.

$1.08 Norrie v $8.00 van Assche: The top Brit had an awful round-one loss last year to Korda (I was there and witnessed a lot of shank forehands), but what a year and what form he has right now. He’s just lost the Auckland final to Gasquet, but he should come through here and has a decent section of the draw.

$1.80 Monteiro v $2.00 Lestienne: Lestienne had a big year on the Challenger circuit in 2022, and comes in with some match wins in Auckland, but a withdraw in the semi-final is a cause for concern. Monteiro is a tough and seasoned campaigner with a better level.

$2.50 Eubanks v $1.53 Kwon: Eubanks has had a horrid start to the year off the court, but finished 2022 very strong on the Challenger circuit. Kwon just won Adelaide as a lucky loser (and played freely and aggressive, as LL’s tend to do). Eubanks has the serve, Kwon has the groundies. Leaning the Korean in four.

$3.40 Lehecka v $1.33 Coric: I watched Lehecka play Dimitrov last year and was impressed with the young Czechs’s game; there’s a lot to like and he has a big potential. Coric is back and looking strong post shoulder surgery, but I think he will have his work cut out for him here and I sense a long match if not an upset on the cards.

$1.14 Cerundolo v $6.10 Pella: Francisco Cerundolo had a breakout year in 2022, making the semifinals in Miami and then winning the ATP 250 in Bastad, as well as a semi-final run at the ATP 500 Hamburg. When the forehand is on its huge, and Pella comes in with just one match in all of 2022 under his belt, let alone this year. The younger Argentine should come through here.

$2.10 Moutet v $1.73 Wu: This pair met recently in the last round of qualifying at the US Open, with Wu taking the win in straight sets. Both players are in form and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this go the distance. Moutet is a great talent with a hot head; expect multiple swings of momentum.

$5.00 Molcan v $1.17 Wawrinka: The 2014 AO Champ has finally shown signs of form since returning from a foot injury in the last 18 months. A rightful favorite against Molcan, who lost his opening round matches in Pune and Auckland.

$8.00 Pospisil v $1.08 Auger-Aliassime: FAA had a blistering finish to 2022, winning 23 of his last 27 matches. Pospisil won their most recent encounter in 2020 and loves quick conditions; I expect a few tie-breakers could play a huge role in this match, and I’m actually going to pick the older Canadian to pull off the upset of round one.

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Third Quarter

$1.30 Rublev v $3.50 Thiem: Rublev is now on a three match losing streak (Tsitsipas, Bautista, Kokkinakis) but Thiem is not the player he once was, especially off his forehand wing, and while he has managed to post some encouraging wins in recent months, I think Rublev’s form and fitness should get past this version of the Austrian.

$3.40 Purcell v $1.33 Ruusuvuori: The Aussie qualifier made the doubles final last year and won a string of matches on the Challenger circuit down under in recent weeks. Ruusuvuori has lost five of his last six, and with the home crowd I expect this to be a close four or five setter.

$1.40 Galan v $3.00 Chardy: Chardy missed all of 2022 after experiencing side-effects from the Covid vaccine. The talented Frenchman is capable of great tennis on faster surfaces, but Galan is in good form and I’m not sure Chardy has the fitness in his first match in over a year.

$6.00 Bagnis v $1.13 Evans: Evans loves the conditions here in Australia; he won his first title at the Melbourne 250 in 2021 (def. FAA) and made the Sydney 250 final in 2017. Bagnis has improved his record on hard in recent years and as a lefty his game blunts some of the Evans backhand slice effectiveness. The Brit is the deserved heavy favourite but I feel Bagnis could pull this one off.

$1.17 Kyrgios v $5.00 Safiullin: Kyrgios hasn’t played an official warm-up match in 2023, but that’s never stopped the mercurial Aussie from playing great tennis. He loves playing at home and uses the crowd better than anybody. I expect him to come through this relatively comfortably.

$1.62 Gasquet v $2.30 Humbert: Gasquet is fresh off his first title in five years (Auckland). The pair played in the first round of the AO last year, with Gasquet coming through in that encounter, and leads their H2H 2-0. Humbert hasn’t recovered the form that took him to 25 in the world in 2021, and the question mark might be over Gasquet’s fitness more than anything.

$1.30 Cressy v $3.50 Ramos: Cressy’s breakout run started this time last year and since then the serve-volleying UCLA alum has continued his high-risk brand of tennis. He has struggled for wins in recent weeks, but so has Ramos, and the quick courts should favour the big-serving American.

$5.50 Krajinovic v $1.14 Rune: Rune took the tour by storm late last year, defeating five top-10 players on his way to the Paris Masters 1000 title—including a Djokovic scalp in the final. The young Dane joins Alcaraz as one of the future’s huge stars, but his shot selection and mental game is still a work in progress. It’s possible he has a deep run here, but Krajinovic is an experienced and talented campaigner, and will be more than a stern test despite a lack of matches since the US Open. Rune will need to be sharp and focused to come through here.

$1.14 Carreno-Busta v $5.50 Cachin: Cachin had a big year on the Challenger circuit in 2022 and prefers the clay courts. Carreno-Busta should come through this test if he’s near his best.

$3.00 Bellucci v $1.40 Bonzi: Mattia Bellucci won two hardcourt Challengers in a row late last year, and has won three matches in qualifying here at the AO. Bonzi is no stranger to Challenger wins; in 2021 he won 50 of them! Coming off the back of a final in Pune last week, it’s hard not to back the Frenchman, but Bellucci is young, talented, and in form and I think he can take this one.

$1.80 Isner v $2.00 Mannarino: Two very experienced campaigners; there will be a couple of busters and surprisingly—to me at least—Isner leads their H2H 8-1. That kind of one-sided rivalry is hard to reverse, and I’ll back the big American to get over the line in round one.

$10.00 Hsu Yu v $1.06 De Minaur: Hsu Yu was in Australia in October playing the Challengers (won Sydney) and Futures. He has come through qualifying here, but De Minaur is on his home court and in good form. The Aussie should come through untroubled.

$1.40 Dimitrov v $3.00 Karatsev: A battle of former AO semi-finalists, Dimitrov has shown good form in the United Cup, and Karatsev posted three wins in Pune. Dimitrov has more experience at this level, and his ability to slice and defend should help blunt the Russian’s power-baseline game.

$3.00 Bergz v $1.40 Djere: Coin toss match with both in form. Bergz perhaps is more suited to hard courts and comes in with three matches under his belt from qualifying, but Djere showed he is no slouch off the clay defeating Casper Ruud last week in Auckland.

$1.10 Couacaud v $7.00 Dellien: Dellien hasn’t played since Wimbledon and prefers the clay. Couacaud has a bank of wins recently and came through qualifying. Should come through here.

$26.00 Carballes Baena v $1.01 Djokovic: Carballes Baena is a great returner and even beat Berrettini last year on a hard court, but Djokovic should come through untroubled here. The Serb’s draw is very nice for the first four rounds. Maybe we get Rune or Kyrgios in a quarterfinal which would be great viewing.

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Fourth Quarter

$1.05 Fritz v $10.00 Basilashvili: Fritz won his maiden 1000 in Indian Wells last year and continued strong in 2022, finishing in the top-10 for the first time. Basilashivili is a hard-hitting and dangerous player, but doesn’t have the banks of wins to be a realistic chance here.

$5.00 Tseng v $1.17 Popyrin: Tseng will be hoping to snap a 9-match losing streak, but he’ll have his work cut out, with Popyrin on home soil playing with form and confidence once more. The Aussie should come through.

$1.50 Shelton v $2.63 Zhang: Shelton went on a tear in the US Challengers late last year and is abroad for the first time in his life. Zhang won a lot of matches at the Challenger level in 2022 and also enjoys the hard courts. Coin toss. Five sets?

$3.40 Jarry v $1.33 Kecmanovic: Jarry has quietly worked his way back up the rankings. A former top-40 player, he has the game to trouble top players on quick courts, and having come through qualifying I think he can upset Kecmanovic—who ended his coaching role with Nalbandian recently—in the first round.

$1.44 Schwartzman v $2.75 Krutykh: Schwartzman enters the AO on an eight match losing streak and retired after a set against Brooksby in Auckland. The talented Argentine prefers the clay but he is no stranger to hard court success. Still, Krutykh has come through qualifying and will have plenty of looks the Argentine’s relatively weak serve. Qualifier upset on the cards.

$1.67 Wolf v $2.20 Thompson: Wolf had his best season in 2022, reaching the third-round of the US Open and finishing inside the top 70. Thompson is playing at home and has garnered some wins at the Challenger level recently, but I think the American has the game and confidence to handle this match.

$1.25 Goffin v $4.00 Lokoli: If Goffin is fit and close to his best level he should come through this, but that has always been a big ‘if’ for the talented Belgian. Picked up a couple of wins in 2023 and should come through against the qualifier.

$9.00 Varillas v $1.07 Zverev: Varillas enters as a Lucky Loser from qualifying, and if there was ever a time to upset Zverev in a slam, it’s now. Zverev looked very ordinary in his two losses to Fritz and Lehecka in the ATP Cup. Hard not to back him, but the upset wouldn’t be shocking given his fitness and form.

$1.30 Berrettini v $3.50 Murray: The pair played twice in 2022, with the big-serving Italian coming through on both occasions. Murray is a shadow of the player that dominated the second-half of 2016, but his experience and grit still wreaks havoc on top players. Berrettini in a close four sets.

$1.22 Kokkinakis v $4.33 Fognini: Kokkinakis almost backed up his Adelaide form from 12-months ago when he won the title. He lost in the first round of the AO last year, and Fognini is a very dangerous round one opponent. If the Italian is up for the fight, he won’t make it easy.

$1.67 Vukic v $2.20 Holt: Both qualifiers. Vukic has the home crowd support, but Holt is capable of big tennis; he upset Fritz in the first-round of the US Open last year. Five-setter? Leaning the Aussie at home.

$6.50 Sousa v $1.11 Bautista: These players are very similar in a way; both have conservative flat forehands and enoy the faster conditions as counter-punching baseliners, but Bautista is a class above and comes in with great form. I think he could make the semi-finals with this draw.

$1.73 Davidovich Fokina v $2.10 Bublik: Bublik is like Kyrgios-lite; a big serve with some chaotic points, but with less talent. Davidovich Fokina is a tough baseliner with a great backhand and return. A contrast of styles, with the edge to the Spaniard.

$3.00 Struff v $1.40 Paul: Tommy Paul had a great 2022 but has only played the two matches this year in Adelaide. Struff comes in winning 6 of his last 7 and enjoys quick conditions with his first-strike game. The German built his ranking up with a couple of deep Challenger runs in 2022 and I think he could cause an upset here.

$3.00 O’Connell v $1.40 Brooksby: O’Connell made the third-round last year and is at a career-high ranking. Brooksby found his mojo again on the hardcourts last year after a bit of a slump is the deserved favourite here.

$5.50 Machac v $1.14 Ruud: Ruud has lost five of his last seven, but should have the level to navigate past Machac. The young Czech enjoys these conditions more than his opponent, however, and will be dangerous should he work his way into the match.

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That’s all the Round 1 action! I’ll be doing some match reports as we get deeper into the tournament next weekend.