Australian Open Men's Draw Preview

conditions — dark horses — round 1 upsets — quarter predictions

The first grand slam of the year gets underway on Sunday in Melbourne where Novak Djokovic will be gunning for his 11th title. Can anyone stop him?

Source.

Conditions

In keeping with a theme for the last few years, players have been quick to criticise the Dunlop balls being used:

“Despite the courts being reasonably quick, I found it difficult to hit aces because the balls fluff up really quickly.”

— Thanasi Kokkinakis in Adelaide

John Millman from December 2023:

The weather in Melbourne for the first week is also relatively cooler, with some additional windy days ahead for rounds 2 and 3.

What does this mean?

These balls (same as last year FYI) coupled with the cooler temps will slow the speed and lower the bounce a touch. Probably means less aces, longer rallies, and longer matches. I think the AO in recent years has favoured players who tend to play a little flatter and who can hit through the court and handle a lower bounce.

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First Quarter

Novak Djokovic opens against 18-year-old qualifier Dino Prizmic. While Prizmic is a big talent, Djokovic should come through this match — and this whole quarter — quite comfortably if he is fit and without any lingering wrist issues. I don’t see Etcheverry, Shelton, or Mannarino capable of an upset.

Last year’s finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas comes in with form and fitness question marks. His first round opponent, Matteo Berrettini, has similar concerns. However, this is a relatively kind section of the draw. Lorenzo Musetti’s win-rate on hard courts was below .500 in 2023. Francisco Cerundolo is a dangerous seed if he can find some form and confidence after opening-round losses in Hong Kong and Auckland and has a local qualifier in the opening round. Taylor Fritz has the best hardcourt form of recent months in this section.

Upsets — Bautista Agut is not the player he once was, but has traditionally fared well down under. Coupled with the cooler temps and Shelton’s inexperience with defending points, I think he can take out the big-serving American. Carballes Baena is traditionally a clay-courter, but I like how his game translates to hard, and in a similar vein to his fellow Spaniard the cooler temp should blunt the power of his opponent’s serve.

Dark Horses — It’s hard to pick a dark horse whenever Novak Djokovic is present, but from the top section I think Chris O’Connell could make a splash for the locals. From the bottom half it’s hard not to take Matteo Berrettini. He has recent history of making a deep run without form at a major (Wimbledon 2023).

Quarterfinal Prediction — Djokovic def. Fritz

Fritz’s class across his serve, forehand, and backhand have made him tough not to pick with his early round draw here. Djokovic will be Djokovic.

Second Quarter

Jannik Sinner ended 2023 in a blaze of glory, snatching victory over Djokovic en route to a Davis Cup win for Italy. He opens his campaign against big-hitting Dutchman van de Zandschulp. His first round could arguably be his sternest test given Baez is lacking form, until a likely fourth-round meeting with Khachanov or Tiafoe.

Andrey Rublev comes in with a title already in 2024 (Hong Kong). The Russian is at the peak of his powers and faces the mercurial Seyboth Wild — a clay courter with a vicious forehand — in the opener. Alex de Minaur carries the home hopes this year, boosted by his recent wins over Zverev and Djokovic (although Djokovic clearly had a wrist issue). He has a tricky opening match against Raonic who can take the racquet out of your hand with his serving. Nicholas Jarry had a career-best year in 2023 and looked sharp in Adelaide; he’ll take some stopping. Sebastian Korda’s talent is undeniable, but consistency and fitness has been an issue as he looks to defend a quarterfinal appearance.

Upsets — It’s an upset by seed but not by the books if I take JJ Wolf to defeat Baez. He should enjoy these conditions. I can’t ignore a healthy Raonic getting a look at de Minaur in the opening round despite the cooler temps. He's been able to snatch wins on limited game-time throughout his career, and if he can reach tie-breakers anything can happen.

Dark Horses — Tomas Machac had a strong Fall to end 2023, winning two Challengers and 19 matches in that final stretch of the season. He brought a similar level to Brisbane last week and could make a run. From the bottom half Matteo Arnaldi stands out; the young Italian is just a rock-solid tennis player. I like his game, athleticism, and attitude.

Quarterfinal Prediction — Sinner def. Rublev

Sinner and Rublev are a tier above the rest of the seeds and other players in this section. Sinner’s continued improvements to his serve and movement in 2023, as well as his superior backhand wing, give him the slight edge in this encounter.

Third Quarter

Recent Brisbane finalist Holger Rune opens against the Japanese lefty Nishioka. This is a tough section of the draw with Fils, Safuillan, Griekspoor, and Djere all coming off a strong 2023. Safuillan in particular gave him a run in Brisbane last week. Ugo Humbert had a very strong 2023 but comes in with little matchplay against qualifier and former top-10 player David Goffin. Hubert Hurkacz’s second half of last season was also stellar and enters with high expectations.

Daniil Medvedev opted out of any lead-in event and finds himself in the toughest quarter by my estimation but has a relatively easy opener. Auger-Aliassime is still looking for match-wins and confidence after an injury-riddled 2023 and similar to Humbert has the tough test of opening against a former #3 Dominic Thiem. That should be one to watch. Grigor Dimitrov is in career-best form but faces a difficult opener against Fucsovics; no stranger to pushing the top brass early in slams. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has a lot of talent as a player, but he hasn’t been able to put it altogether. He looked steady in the United Cup and he will be hard to beat if he can use his speed and keep his head.

Upsets — This section is rife with possible upsets: Safuillan over Griekspoor (not a bookies upset); Goffin over Humbert; Fucsovics over Dimitrov; Thiem over Auger Aliassime; Shapovalov over Mensik. Take note of Vesely; a win might be a stretch but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gave Fils a scare.

Dark Horses — There’s a bunch of players I like from the top section here, but I’ll stick to the customary one and pick Zhizhen Zhang. From the bottom half I’ll pick Emil Ruusuvuori. Ruusuvuori is coming off a final in Hong Kong (lost to Rublev) and it might pay to play Medvedev early while he is still short on match practice.

Quarterfinal Prediction — Dimitrov def. Rune

This was a tough one to pick. Grigor’s grand slam fortunes have always been fickle, but he’s been playing top-10 ball in recent months. Brisbane was a very impressive run. He’s confident, mature, and although his draw is kinda tough, sometimes that works in your favour if you can survive to the later rounds. Rune also has a tough draw, but despite the loss I was very impressed with his level in the Brisbane final.

Fourth Quarter

Alexander Zverev opens against Dominic Koepfer — the winner of the recent Canberra Challenger. Jiri Lehecka is in form having taken to the court for the Adelaide final at the time of posting. Casper Ruud has notched some strong wins in the United Cup and has vowed to play more aggressively on hard courts this year. Cam Norrie withdrew from Auckland with an injury scare.

Carlos Alcaraz returns to the Australian Open having missed the 2023 edition due to injury. Like the other top-4 players, he opted to play some exhibitions instead of an official lead-in event. He opens against French veteran Richard Gasquet. Alexander Bublik is the other seed in his section who had a solid 2023 and is tough to play; a Kazakhstani Kyrgios. Tommy Paul and Jan-Lennard Struff are the other seeds in a tough section; Jack Draper lurks in there.

Upsets — Dominic Koepfer is my wild upset pick of round 1. Rinky Hijikata will have the home crowd behind him against Struff. Can Sumit Nagal profit from a capricious Bublik? I think so.

Dark Horses — Wild one but Lukas Klein has been on a tear in recent months. Keep an eye on him. Dusan Lajovic is another to watch. I know that was two from the top half, but I gotta break the rules sometimes. From the bottom half I’ll take Jack Draper. Great athlete, decent lefty-serve, fights hard. If he can stay healthy he should have a big 2024.

Quarterfinal Prediction — Alcaraz def. Ruud

Alcaraz has a pretty cushy draw for the first few rounds and should come through unscathed if he plays to his level. Casper Ruud has looked sharp in his United Cup wins and I like his draw. I don’t think these conditions are great for his game, but his draw and the seeds in his section make me think he might squeeze out another deep run at a major.

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Let’s see how it all shakes out. See you in the comments! HC.